Cold Rain

Yeah, the EPS is looking pretty good out in la la land. Gotta look good out there before it gets in here, I guess. Hopefully, we will see several runs back to back with that look and have it actually progress in closer this time.

Looking forward to getting past the half-way point in Jan. Should see some signs of life showing up pretty soon. Somewhere near the beginning of H2 January, we'll be tracking our first legitimate threat.

What a mess in the long range. All features are still basically opposite of what we want. How does that even happen all the time now? MJO looks like a disaster going into phase 5.

It walked away from the big wound up PV over the pole, a little bit, toward the end. Even looks to try to fire up a -NAO.

Happy Thanksgiving!!

That's awesome. I think our area might crash all the way down to the upper 20s one night. A few days ago, I remember seeing a 12. Models seem like they might struggle by overdoing temps just a little bit in the long range.

The winds upstairs are going to be at the upper end of what we usually see around here. RE: the NAM, I do not trust its depictions of CAPE or meso lows and such right now. It always looks scary severe weather-wise. I won't say there's zero tornado risk because we just don't know yet. At this point, what we do know is that there are some things look likely and some things look possible. It looks likely that instability will be limited, due to an elevated warm layer and a largely overcast sky. It looks likely that there will be a lot of wind energy aloft that can be easily tapped. It looks likely that there will be a lot of rain, and the soil will be easily saturated. It looks likely that flooding will be a concern. It looks likely that even if winds remain below severe limits in most areas, downed trees would still be a concern, due to the aforementioned soil conditions. It is possible that instability will be higher if breaks in the cloud cover occur (hard to tell at this lead). It is possible that a meso-low forms, backing the low level winds and increasing the tornado threat, at least for eastern areas. It is possible that convection earlier in the day reduces instability by the time the main forcing comes through, thus reducing the wind threat. The main take-aways for me right now are that the potential is there for widespread wind damage reports, resulting from a squall line. There is not yet enough clarity or broad support to justify anything higher than an Enhanced Risk at this point, IMO. I certainly wouldn't be using the word "historic" yet. It is possible that things could change for the worse. But that is not the most likely scenario, based on the data available right now.

Strongly agree with all of this.

Ryan layeth the smacketh down!

Yep, it was rolling our way there for a little while, and then it started hauling a$$ over to Siberia. Definitely going to go down as the worst winter ever in my book, unless we get one of those Marches of yore to show up. Most certainly, the expectations for this winter make it all the worse.

He’s right. Our early spring started in January. Winter is about to cycle back around again in mid Feb!

Once blocking returns, we'll be good. We've generally had an extremely poor run in that department. Not surprising that snow and winter storms are down. Now, why is blocking in winter so uncommon? Not sure.

I saw that too. Doesn't add up at all.

Yeah I think we can safely say that after a week or so of below normal, the pattern is pretty much going back in the crapper. Maybe by late Feb, we’ll have another shot at a cold blast.

Going to be another winter of Miller Fs and mixed bags. Wonder if we’ll ever get a real snowstorm again.

Yeah, the ACC is pretty stacked this year. You guys will no doubt do very well. I’m still not sure about the Pack, in terms of their consistency. Most of the players are new (transfers) this year. But they play with a really good energy and attitude. Going to be a fun season.

He was probably getting it on with their girlfriends. Anyway, congrats to the Heels on a good win. Can’t give a good team 200 second and third and fourth chance shots. Kevin Keatts is a winner.

They got beat stoopidly. Pretty amazing actually.

Happy New Year, folks!

How so?

That’s up from last time, right?

At this point, I’m just hoping for some sleet.

You actually can do pretty well if you understand the setup and learn from past situations. Even if you simply use the snow maps and take the 48-72 hour ones and adjust the max significantly north and cut them in half, you’ll usually get pretty close.

Who will be the first to say you can’t trust the Euro at this range and instead rely on the HRRR and other short range non-warming-showing models?

Poiman, what service do you use for that map?