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ajr

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About ajr

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Location:
    Chapel Hill, NC

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  1. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    18z GFS took a nice step in our favor for 1/20 - looks like maybe less interaction with the northern energy keeping the system a little further south?
  2. ajr

    January 12-13th Winter Storm Obs

    Light sleet just started up in Chapel Hill -- random surprise when I opened the door just now Edit: Already over
  3. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Just for fun, the 12z FV3 has about the mother of all snowstorms out in fantasy land around hours 324-348 -- spots of 2"+ QPF and all snow through SE NC into SC.
  4. ajr

    January 12th-13th event

    12z ICON drops about 0.5" of ice around RDU/IGX
  5. ajr

    January 12th-13th event

    18z GEFS warmed up a little and seems to like the Miller B/slider pattern with transition north of Savannah
  6. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Earlier phase too it looks like - MA should be happy
  7. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Verbatim looks to be around the northern border counties on the GFS -- obviously it's going to move around a bunch the next few days
  8. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    That's a CAD signature if I ever saw one (shame the 850s are still warm though)
  9. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    GFS turned into a southern slider.. looks like mainly driven by the jetstream flattening out and good confluence up north. Hopefully not a blip and trends continue for NC/SC
  10. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Crankywxguy’s blog has some helpful info — essentially it’ll all come down to how the waves phase and progress.. the northern pacific is complex right now with multiple waves/interactions. May be best to wait a few days for the pieces to develop before going all-in one way or another.
  11. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yep - Miller A didn’t show up until a few days before if I remember correctly.
  12. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    6z FV3 fairly similar to the GFS
  13. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    6z GFS is an apps runner still - looks like the northern stream energy drags the whole system north with a big phase over New York into New England
  14. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    The 0z euro held steady with snow (light mainly) for CLT to RDU and points north and west
  15. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Random but why is the GFS still active? I thought it was supposed to change to the FV3 by now?
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