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ajr

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About ajr

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Location:
    Chapel Hill, NC

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  1. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    The 12z GFS/GEFS/FV3 suite is good for NC/SC around March 4-6... starting to show something promising with consistency.
  2. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    850 level looks cold enough
  3. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I really think this may be an RDU-FAY special
  4. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    From what I saw posted elsewhere, 6z EPS looks even better than 0z for Carolina folks. Maybe this isn’t a drill folks!
  5. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    18z GFS took a nice step in our favor for 1/20 - looks like maybe less interaction with the northern energy keeping the system a little further south?
  6. ajr

    January 12-13th Winter Storm Obs

    Light sleet just started up in Chapel Hill -- random surprise when I opened the door just now Edit: Already over
  7. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Just for fun, the 12z FV3 has about the mother of all snowstorms out in fantasy land around hours 324-348 -- spots of 2"+ QPF and all snow through SE NC into SC.
  8. ajr

    January 12th-13th event

    12z ICON drops about 0.5" of ice around RDU/IGX
  9. ajr

    January 12th-13th event

    18z GEFS warmed up a little and seems to like the Miller B/slider pattern with transition north of Savannah
  10. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Earlier phase too it looks like - MA should be happy
  11. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Verbatim looks to be around the northern border counties on the GFS -- obviously it's going to move around a bunch the next few days
  12. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    That's a CAD signature if I ever saw one (shame the 850s are still warm though)
  13. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    GFS turned into a southern slider.. looks like mainly driven by the jetstream flattening out and good confluence up north. Hopefully not a blip and trends continue for NC/SC
  14. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Crankywxguy’s blog has some helpful info — essentially it’ll all come down to how the waves phase and progress.. the northern pacific is complex right now with multiple waves/interactions. May be best to wait a few days for the pieces to develop before going all-in one way or another.
  15. ajr

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yep - Miller A didn’t show up until a few days before if I remember correctly.
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