ajr
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About ajr
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The 12z GFS/GEFS/FV3 suite is good for NC/SC around March 4-6... starting to show something promising with consistency.
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850 level looks cold enough
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I really think this may be an RDU-FAY special
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From what I saw posted elsewhere, 6z EPS looks even better than 0z for Carolina folks. Maybe this isn’t a drill folks!
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18z GFS took a nice step in our favor for 1/20 - looks like maybe less interaction with the northern energy keeping the system a little further south?
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Light sleet just started up in Chapel Hill -- random surprise when I opened the door just now Edit: Already over
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Just for fun, the 12z FV3 has about the mother of all snowstorms out in fantasy land around hours 324-348 -- spots of 2"+ QPF and all snow through SE NC into SC.
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12z ICON drops about 0.5" of ice around RDU/IGX
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18z GEFS warmed up a little and seems to like the Miller B/slider pattern with transition north of Savannah
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Earlier phase too it looks like - MA should be happy
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Verbatim looks to be around the northern border counties on the GFS -- obviously it's going to move around a bunch the next few days
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That's a CAD signature if I ever saw one (shame the 850s are still warm though)
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GFS turned into a southern slider.. looks like mainly driven by the jetstream flattening out and good confluence up north. Hopefully not a blip and trends continue for NC/SC
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Crankywxguy’s blog has some helpful info — essentially it’ll all come down to how the waves phase and progress.. the northern pacific is complex right now with multiple waves/interactions. May be best to wait a few days for the pieces to develop before going all-in one way or another.
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Yep - Miller A didn’t show up until a few days before if I remember correctly.
