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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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(I hope the picture is allowed).. My Apologies if it isn't.. 

Looks like Everyone starts out with Flakes..

though the next panel shows change-over to Mix/Rain..

Hopefully, More knowledgeable Mets can answer this..

How is this possible; the "Low" "BullDogs" (for the lack of a better term),  into these pair of  Strong highs?

Shouldn't the Low track further South off the Coast? As Neither High budges AT ALL in  the  further panels.. .. 1037 & 1036 highs?

This is What is referred to as a "Banana High"?

I heard the term mention before, just trying to learn something here..

snow.JPG

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2 minutes ago, SENC said:

(I hope the picture is allowed).. My Apologies if it isn't.. 

Looks like Everyone starts out with Flakes..

though the next panel shows change-over to Mix/Rain..

Hopefully, More knowledgeable Mets can answer this..

How is this possible; the "Low" "BullDogs" (for the lack of a better term),  into these pair of  Strong highs?

Shouldn't the Low track further South off the Coast? As Neither High budges AT ALL in  the  further panels.. .. 1037 & 1036 highs?

This is What is referred to as a "Banana High"?

I heard the term mention before, just trying to learn something here..

snow.JPG

Banana high is a term used when a high (or pair of highs) bends around an area of low pressure and blocks it. It happened with Hurricane Florence and set it on a path to the Carolinas instead of OTS. 

The GFS has a track record (pun intended) for showing that BS about pile driving into HPs, it isn't going to happen, so the low will track further south as has been shown with both the GEFS (the GFS ensembles) and the EPS (Euro ensembles). That major suppression is why even my area is going to get at least SL/FL (Sleet or Flurries), I hope this helps.

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Banana high is a term used when a high (or pair of highs) bends around an area of low pressure and blocks it. It happened with Hurricane Florence and set it on a path to the Carolinas instead of OTS. 
The GFS has a track record (pun intended) for showing that BS about pile driving into HPs, it isn't going to happen, so the low will track further south as has been shown with both the GEFS (the GFS ensembles) and the EPS (Euro ensembles). That major suppression is why even my area is going to get at least SL/FL (Sleet or Flurries), I hope this helps.


You are way too overconfident on this. The NWS mets aren't even sure I will see snow in Hickory, NC, and you are guaranteeing sleet and flurries south of Columbia, SC?!?! You are going to be severely disappointed, I do believe.

Also, how can you say what is and isn't going to happen six days before we get there? The weather is so fickle. We try our best to model it with math, but are so often wrong. Of course the low could barrel into the banana high, because the banana high might not even be there on Friday/Saturday, as is currently modeled. Who knows what will actually transpire between now and then?

The gist of this is to suggest you avoid speaking in such absolutes. There are much greater forces at work than you and I could possibly understand, and they all affect the sensible weather. While humanity has advanced our understanding, we have light years still to go.

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

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TY @Orangeburgwx , I do have a "rudimentary" understanding.. (sorry), The "Florence" example is what I was trying to get at.. TY for making it "clearer"..

So We want "suppression" Alil more..

As in I'm not buying, (quite yet) what the further in time,  panels are advertising..  The Low, pushing up that far into these "Highs".. 

Ideally, We would want this "Low" to cut down to say, Mid-Florida (following the Contours) .. then up the Coast.. 

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2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:


 

 


You are way too overconfident on this. The NWS mets aren't even sure I will see snow in Hickory, NC, and you are guaranteeing sleet and flurries south of Columbia, SC?!?! You are going to be severely disappointed, I do believe.

Also, how can you say what is and isn't going to happen six days before we get there? The weather is so fickle. We try our best to model it with math, but are so often wrong. Of course the low could barrel into the banana high, because the banana high might not even be there on Friday/Saturday, as is currently modeled. Who knows what will actually transpire between now and then?

The gist of this is to suggest you avoid speaking in such absolutes. There are much greater forces at work than you and I could possibly understand, and they all affect the sensible weather. While humanity has advanced our understanding, we have light years still to go.

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
 

 

Correct. I've been seeing a lot of absolutes being posted around here -- And it's still way too far out to even begin saying who will get what. A lot of people also read this forum who may take the absolutes and run with them. We can start nailing down who will get what later in the week, for now let's just sit back and watch each run. All we know is that there is likely a storm coming, but beyond that, nobody knows.

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My excitement meter is up to about an 8 out of 10 at this point.  Seems like even in the more amped/miller B scenario's CAD favored area's should at least be in for some ice.

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1 minute ago, Disc said:

Correct. I've been seeing a lot of absolutes being posted around here -- And it's still way too far out to even begin saying who will get what. A lot of people also read this forum who may take the absolutes and run with them. We can start nailing down who will get what later in the week, for now let's just sit back and watch each run. All we know is that there is likely a storm coming, but beyond that, nobody knows.

You're right. People are acting like we've got this thing in the boat and I dont get itn frankly, I've lost dozens of storms in this time frame over the years.

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We now have the EPS on the new 06z run out to hr144 (06z run of EPS ends at 144) - folks on the southern edge of wintry precip will like the trends.  The mean has more suppressive flow over the NE, so our storm has nudged south and is a little colder.  Nice thing too is that the kicker wave behind our storm wave isn't as much right on it's tail, so I think that will allow our storm wave to maintain itself nicely as it rolls east.  It's kind of a blend of the UKMet and Euro from last night (image below), which seems like a solid forecast strategy at the moment.  Note how the UKMet doesn't have as strong of a kicker wave coming into California, so our storm wave in the 4 corners is a bit stronger on the UKMet...the 06z EPS Mean trended in this direction.

d1hLstX.gif

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You're right. People are acting like we've got this thing in the boat and I dont get itn frankly, I've lost dozens of storms in this time frame over the years.

They will learn...
12 hour rule in play here. Until then, it’s all on the table!
With that said, going to be a long week


.
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31 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

You're right. People are acting like we've got this thing in the boat and I dont get itn frankly, I've lost dozens of storms in this time frame over the years.

Exactly! At 6 days out I don't see how anyone can say this is a slam dunk. Maybe this is in fact different with such a strong signal. But I personally will hold off on my excitement.

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Its foolish to expect snow south of GSP even if its modeled in SC.  We get a good snow on average every 5-7 years in the northern midlands , at least over the past 20 years or so.    Buying into a minimal ensemble agreement 6 days out is wishcasting

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2 minutes ago, gearhead302 said:

Its foolish to expect snow south of GSP even if its modeled in SC.  We get a good snow on average every 5-7 years in the northern midlands , at least over the past 20 years or so.    Buying into a minimal ensemble agreement 6 days out is wishcasting

As much as I hate to say this, as I’ve lived and gone to school in Columbia, this storm isn’t going to do much for areas south of a line from Clemson to Rock Hill. Now, that could change and we’re way out but it would take seismic changes for anywhere in the midlands to see more than a very slight glaze. 

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39 minutes ago, griteater said:

We now have the EPS on the new 06z run out to hr144 (06z run of EPS ends at 144) - folks on the southern edge of wintry precip will like the trends.  The mean has more suppressive flow over the NE, so our storm has nudged south and is a little colder.  Nice thing too is that the kicker wave behind our storm wave isn't as much right on it's tail, so I think that will allow our storm wave to maintain itself nicely as it rolls east.  It's kind of a blend of the UKMet and Euro from last night (image below), which seems like a solid forecast strategy at the moment.  Note how the UKMet doesn't have as strong of a kicker wave coming into California, so our storm wave in the 4 corners is a bit stronger on the UKMet...the 06z EPS Mean trended in this direction.

d1hLstX.gif

Thank you Grit for your analysis through tracking this event.  I've learned alot and it's been very helpful.  

Hard not to get an increased excitement level.  Yes, we've had massive busts in the past.  But with both the GEFS and EPS showing a nice storm, and all their operationals on board (currently), you've got to feel good about it.  In addition, NWS is noticing the threat and are starting to highlight it (which I found is rare this far out).  But I've only been on the boards and following the models since about 2010. 

So yes, there's lots of time for things to crap out.  It could completely unfold, crash and burn.  Considering the nino, stj energy and the other favorable synoptic elements in place though it just feels good.  

I've always thought the good ones you can see at long leads.  This seems like a good one.  Let's see where it goes.  

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I'm right along With Orangeburg.. Thus;  I  Do Have Parachutes at the ready  for everyone, when Cliffdiving commences .. (Lets hope it doesn't come to that).. 

Until then,,  Lets TRY to reel this sucka  in! 

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12z GFS looks stronger with the northern stream system coming in late week and weaker with the system over the SW. I suspect we'll see a suppressed track as the model begins to lose the storm. We'll see if I'm right.

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12z GFS so far more separation between the jets at 126.  Don't want much interaction between the two while it works east.  Also a good trend of slowing down the northern wave to keep our front-end HP in place

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