Jump to content

WidreMann

Members
  • Content count

    7,677
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About WidreMann

  • Rank
    Der Dunkle Herrscher
  • Birthday 12/31/2011

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    Durham, NC
  • Interests
    Not sucking at Haskell.

Recent Profile Visitors

2,263 profile views
  1. WidreMann

    Griteater's Winter Outlook (18-19)

    Given the general persistence of patterns in these past few years, I find it hard to believe that we'll have a mild December and then not also have a mild January, especially with that consistent troughing over Greenland. Not to say we won't have cold periods (as we've already had), but I would think that mild overall is better odds. We've seen, however, how even a week or two of a cold pattern can really perform for us, a la 2000 or February 2015.
  2. WidreMann

    Hurricane Florence

    This convergence makes it clear that the solution is probably correct. Lots of egg-on-face for folks in the Triangle who were pumping up the Fran 2.0 angle when the storm was still 4-6 days away and the models were showing a lot of uncertainty.
  3. WidreMann

    Hurricane Florence

    GGEM takes it slowly inland over eastern NC. It was the last outlier. It's still kind of an outlier in its northerliness, but not by as much.
  4. WidreMann

    Hurricane Florence

    Yep. The models have converged in a way that they were not a day or so ago. They show some track variance and some small detail differences, but the overall picture is pretty much the same among all of the majors (GGEM excepted).
  5. WidreMann

    Hurricane Florence

    The important thing is that the ridge over the SE is a bit stronger than 18z, which would argue for more of a stall and a more easterly track.
  6. WidreMann

    Hurricane Florence

    Is the 3k, or the regular NAM for that matter, a reliable tropical model? Don't both of them get their initial and boundary conditions from the GFS?
  7. WidreMann

    Hurricane Florence

    Indeed, the GFS and Euro show only 1-2" of rain for RDU and wind gusts topping out in the 40s at best. Any more shifts south and it'll just be cloudy and breezy. A far cry from what the public probably still expects from this storm. I was not sold on this Fran-like track that was all the rage Sunday and Monday, but I expected that a track up the coast and out to sea around the upper-level ridge would be the most favored scenario. It's hard to think that we'd get a stall scenario this far north in mid-September, yet now with these persistent big ridges in the eastern half of the country, I guess this may be the new norm.
  8. WidreMann

    Hurricane Florence

    I bet they'll slow it down at 5 AM. They probably want to see the 00z suite before going all-in on the stall-and-meander solution.
  9. WidreMann

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Must have gotten old images.
  10. WidreMann

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Meanwhile GGEM stalls and then goes out to sea, albeit near the coast.
  11. WidreMann

    Hurricane Florence

    I'm amazed at how small the western part of the precip shield is. GFS doesn't give any rain for central and western coastal plain, even though winds pick up. Strange.
  12. WidreMann

    Hurricane Florence

    Which storm was that?
  13. WidreMann

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    West trend continues through 27. May not be enough to avoid the loop.
  14. WidreMann

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    The great convergence has begun.
  15. WidreMann

    Hurricane Florence

    I also have no idea how good the Euro's wind gust maps are. The sustained winds map is in the 30-50 mph range for comparison.
×