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WidreMann

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About WidreMann

  • Rank
    Der Dunkle Herrscher
  • Birthday 12/31/2011

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    Durham, NC
  • Interests
    Not sucking at Haskell.

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  1. It has gotten worse and worse...sea levels continue to rise. Temperatures continue to warm unabated. Artic sea ice sets record low after record low. What are you looking at that says it's not getting worse? The fact that each day is not literally warmer/stormier than the day before does not mean nothing is happening. They've studied things like sunspots and ocean temps and whatnot. The sun is not changing in the right direction to cause warming. Ocean temperatures are very much affected by AGW, and if anything, are moderating its influence (for now). What is your level of proof needed? Does God need to come down from on high and literally say "AGW is real" for you to believe? You can't just say "we don't have enough data" when we have a ton of data. You can always argue there's more to understand, but that's true of literally every human endeavour. But we will happily go to war over false evidence about WMDs and we will happily shoot black people cuz they like they are up to no good. Where was the data supporting that? The further research? The confounding factors? If deniers, who are almost entirely conservatives, want to talk about needing more data and considering alternatives, maybe I'd take them seriously if their approach to almost literally anything else wasn't shoot first and ask questions later.
  2. In any case, the 00z GFS has already reversed what the 12z GFS had in the LR.
  3. I see a lot of problems with the pattern, but a SE ridge isn't one of them, on any of the models really.
  4. NCAR daily analysis has shown temps dropping a good bit in November. Maybe the October bump was solar wind related. I still think we can eke out a cooler last 3 months of the year than last year, even if only by a little. So far, most months this year have been cooler than the equivalent month in 2016. Looks like October was the exception.
  5. It misses the phase, but actually seems to have a better pattern developing, with something of a 50/50 low, and ridging further west over NA and a deeper, further SW trough out in the Pacific.
  6. How would there be ridging in the GoA but above normal heights across most of the US? Wouldn't there be at least some downstream troughiness? How do week 1 and 2 look? I know that's in the operation/ens range, but I'm still curious. Or do they not have a separate seasonal model?
  7. Could be lag effect from Nino-ish conditions in the first half of 2017? I guess we will see after a few months of this stout but weak La Nina.
  8. Even the Euro could just as well develop a colder pattern down the road, it just delays. The blockiness is there and the Pacific, though not great, is better than it was in October, much better. If that's the worst we are facing (until tonight's 00z reverses the 12z again), then I think we're okay. May not be blockbuster winter, but it'll at least keep us around normal for the rest of the month.
  9. There is plenty of research to do in climate and meteorology. As y'all like to say, there's so much we don't understand. While I fully believe we know enough to know there's a problem, I won't deny that there's plenty more we can learn. There is no shortage of things to study in science. And if AGW wasn't real, then there are plethora of other human-related environmental issues to study and raise the alarm about, just generally on a smaller scale. Believe me, the scientists would find plenty of ways to get funding. However, all you've expressed is a potential motive for some people. It hardly explains the data, the science and the absolutely ridiculous amount of work it would take to pull off a hoax of this magnitude. Have you looked at temperature trends or the state of sea ice in the Arctic? Can you point me to any credible alternative theory of the warming we've seen? There is none.
  10. You don't think folks working for oil companies and conservative think tanks don't have an incentive to produce garbage science too? In any case, while the money motive may exist for some folks, and may also result in some alarmist language in the conclusions, the science is pretty alarming just by the actual numbers and details and readily observable weather trends in the past few years. Furthermore, the money motive simply isn't enough to explain the huge amount of research and data and scientists involved. Couldn't they have just as well decided that they'd keep the whole thing under wraps and claim the the earth is cooling or not changing at all? Why warming?
  11. You didn't show the next two frames where it builds a Pac Jet into Alaska and moves the ridge into the center of the US. Looks like the 12z GFS was sniffing something out.
  12. Of course the 12z GFS has to throw us a curve ball and say no to the pattern change. Will see if Euro follows suit.
  13. 37 F at RDU as of 11 PM, which is slightly ahead of schedule from the latest modelling. Durham is at 38 or so. I'm thinking that we're definitely on track for at least 28 F tonight.
  14. For people worried about the models backing off the giant bowling balls...I say good riddance. The runs showing that also showed way too much ridging over Canada, and that cuts off the cold air supply and eats away at snowpack. I'm liking the less amped up runs that have a broader but more inclusive trough that goes from Canada down into the US, with more appropriate ridging east of Greenland and also along the west coast. That's really what we need, and I'm willing to wait longer to get there. Also, at no point do the models show torching here. We'll still be around or slightly below normal for the most part. We just won't have highs in the 40s.
  15. 00z GFS starting to look like the 12z Euro. Another couple runs on board and we'll be looking at a cold second half of November. That would put RDU at below normal probably after this week of -5s to -15s. Most interestingly, it will mean that the CFS forecast of torch will have failed miserably. Same with CanSIPS. What that means down the road, I don't know.