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Everything posted by BullCityWx

  1. We were at 1.6, roughly, and now at 3.6 roughly.
  2. Besides almost every model shifting north today? The isothermal column from start to finish?
  3. I think that’s pretty fair but I could definitely see it move 75 miles west. I didn’t say the storms were similar, I meant that forecasting less than an inch in the triangle is a dangerous proposition given our trends and could force people into catchup mode.
  4. Theres a 1/23/2003 level of catch up potential here on the professionals part.
  5. The reason the GFS is warmer is it suspiciously warms up on Thursday Morning. Now I ask you, if clouds and precip are coming in, are you really going to heat up that much?
  6. There was some not great forecasting on triangle television tonight
  7. Like a cheap table, the GFS has totally folded.
  8. https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html
  9. Hey man, I’m also in Durham in American Village. If you believe the NAM, heavy snow would start 1PM Thursday and snow about an inch an hour until Friday Morning.
  10. It snows an inch an hour for 12 hours. I’m sold.
  11. So if you read from left to right: Hour valid on the model run/Date/time of day/temp/dew point/wind direction/speed/precip accumulation in those 3 hours. Below that, you have the precip type. The rest of it is not as important to know.
  12. That’s a good point. It crossed my mind today. This is about where the euro was at this point in time as well
  13. And I think we’re getting a little past the point of usefulness with the ensembles. They generally aren’t given as much weight within 48 hours and we are just about to that point.
  14. So we traded the Canadian for the GFS.
  15. It’s like clockwork aint it. just doubled my QPF
  16. QPF at least doubled in every triangle location. Johnston County might’ve tripled.
  17. It looked better than this? That’s half a foot of snow from Huntersville to the RDU airport.
  18. I mean, I’ve had sleet at 20 degrees not because there was a warm layer but because the dang moisture was too shallow. If it can find it, it usually does!