• Member Statistics

    15,535
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ransom
    Newest Member
    ransom
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

Just now, griteater said:

It's overnight into early morning for Western Carolinas

Grit, 

Thank you so very much for all your analysis and PBP. You are a Redtag in my book...all day-EVERY DAY! How much did you end up with in your backyard? Hoping this ULL holds a good surprise for us (or at least the ones who got the shaft on round one). Thanks in advance! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, jburns said:

I'll tell you what. You go and find the post or posts of any moderator that was talking about Jim Cantore's height and I will discipline them severely. I'll wait.

Yeah, that was me that originally asked the question. Constant lurker. Infrequent commenter. Was bouncing around between threads and didn’t realize I was on the Obs thread. A couple pics of our members with him piqued my interest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

What  do you think from what you are seeing, with the formation of the ULL? Does this thing have some horsepower? Or do you think we will just get on and off snow showers? It will be interesting to see where this sets up shop at...

I think we'll see radar break out nicely across E TN / NE GA / NC / northern half of SC overnight into early morning and spreading east thru the day.  For you and I, soundings are sketchy for snow, but the timing is good (night and early morning) and it may be just cold enough.  I'd keep expectations low on amounts....seeing flakes fly and maybe some light accumulations

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ULL are fun but frustrating....models tend to do pretty badly with them as far as how intense they can be....like several have mentioned some big snows have happened in NC due to a ULL dropping in like this.....you just never know what they will do for sure. No one should expect more than say 1-2" but there could easily be a few spots that win out and get over that.....

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Watching 2 different stations in-house models (WCBD one of them), and both show snow coming through the CAE area around 6-7pm Monday, eventually heading toward the inland counties like Orangeburg, maybe northern Dorchester.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, sctvman said:

Watching 2 different stations in-house models (WCBD one of them), and both show snow coming through the CAE area around 6-7pm Monday, eventually heading toward the inland counties like Orangeburg, maybe northern Dorchester.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Did they mention anything about duration?  I'm guessing it'd be only an hour or two of snow, if it did come fruition.  If it's an ULL, then one never knows how it'll transpire.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Did they mention anything about duration?  I'm guessing it'd be only an hour or two of snow, if it did come fruition.  If it's an ULL, then one never knows how it'll transpire.

It was a CHS station so they probably couldn’t care as much about the weather in Columbia, but probably an hour or two.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I can confirm, that’s pretty accurate 

yep. sickening how it does the little jump above clt. at least i got 2 hours of really nice snowfall rates. hope to cash in on a big one later this winter.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, DopplerWx said:

yep. sickening how it does the little jump above clt. at least i got 2 hours of really nice snowfall rates. hope to cash in on a big one later this winter.

Aint that the truth brother. I really need to move away from the CHARLOTTE I-85 kiss of death. LOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HRRR removes heat fast this evening. It takes 2m temp in the triad to 32 around 5pm - down to 24 at 7 pm. It bottoms out in the mid teens in NC Piedmont where there’s a nice snowpack. This seems a bit overdone based on forecasts.

Hi res NAM is much warmer and slower to radiate. Doesn’t drop to freezing until midnight, bottoming out in the mid 20s in northern NC, tapering to 32 towards SC line. This seems warm even if the clouds are stubborn.

RGEM is somewhere in between the two and seems most reasonable. Drops to 32 between 6-7pm, bottoming out pretty close to everyones official forecast low.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This may have already been posted, but quite an amazing job on the FV3 from 8 days out (at least for the deep south and southern apps portion of the map). This was the first forecast map that was posted in this thread back on 12/2. The 12Z GFS wasn't too far off either for its initial depiction for Sunday. The 12Z GFS snowfall map from that same day shows that the models were already zeroing in on on far NE Georgia, the upstate of SC, and central and western NC as the bullseye for winter weather. Those areas remained remarkably consistent as ground zero throughout the evolution of the storm. We'll see if the models show the same consistency when the next threat materializes, but it's encouraging to see the south's first winter storm of the season handled well by most of the major models. I'll leave it to the professional mets and seasoned amateurs to grade the overall performance of each model, but the "new" GFS appears to have received more than a passing grade (is a B+ too high?).

snow.thumb.JPG.654effb433d55d1e24aec5d56bc25bb7.JPG

imageproxy (1).png

gfs_snow_Ku_acc_charlotte_32.thumb.png.45a03097942fab903faa8bd2680563b7.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The FV3's track for the storm was spot on for a week out. Almost unheard of. It did not get the thermals exactly right but hey, for it to be that close at that range is great to see. I would give it a solid A

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

The FV3's track for the storm was spot on for a week out. Almost unheard of. It did not get the thermals exactly right but hey, for it to be that close at that range is great to see. I would give it a solid A

A for me and we have a new king

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Drove from Boone to Greenville today, coverage was total to around Zebulon.  Takes a rare bird to lay down that areal extent in NC, even areas to the east saw cover yesterday before it melted.  40 north, solid A. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.