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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I got about 14 still coming down mod. looks to taper off in a couple hours. Then looks like it may skip the foothills tonight per RGEM been a great storm no doubt!!

Yes and the models did a great job. How bout the FV3 from 7 plus days out. Gonna be a fun winter when it starts in 2 weeks lol.

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

And the HRRR nailed the snow line damn near 36 hours out. Outstanding.

It was just a hair too far south to save me from two fewer hours of snow. Still, waking up to 7" on the ground in early December is amazing. That puts at I believe third snowiest December for RDU.

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20 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yes and the models did a great job. How bout the FV3 from 7 plus days out. Gonna be a fun winter when it starts in 2 weeks lol.

 

10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

And the HRRR nailed the snow line damn near 36 hours out. Outstanding.

Yes, those two did the best with the long and short range.

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Out at the beach...

As of 1245 PM Sun...Updated to increase winds later today and
esp this evening, as low pres now centered near Charleston races
NE and up the NC coast this evening. The low will quickly
deepen as it feeds off the warm Gulf Stream waters, with most
models indicating 15mb per 12hr pres falls as it exits off the
OBX. Have upgraded OBX zones to a high wind warning as could see
some gusts to 60 mph this evening. Otherwise, breezy and wet
conditions across E NC with large area of stratiform rain
continuing to move through the region.
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30 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Yes and the models did a great job. How bout the FV3 from 7 plus days out. Gonna be a fun winter when it starts in 2 weeks lol.

2

It's good to hear you say that.  That's when our betting contest we set up in the "Winter 2018-2019" Speculation thread begins. It seems a shame to waste such a good storm in autumn but nature does what nature does.

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1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Not doubting anyone but where is this evening and Monday moisture coming from?  

It’s a closed contour upper low that’s dropping down into the trough behind our departing storm.  It’s currently located over S Dakota/Nebraska and will drop into E Oklahoma, then swing thru the SE states.  Euro has precip breaking out with it in E TN / N GA a little before midnight then swinging east thru the Carolinas overnight and into the morning. Shouldn’t be anything major, but could be some nice embedded snow showers in there  

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Here's the NWS Raleigh Discussion: As of 350 PM Sunday...

Surface low has emerged off the SE Coast and will pull slowly east- northeast away from the NC coast as a series of shortwaves eject east through the base of mid/upper level trough trough in place across the SE US.

Per 18z/9 GSO sounding, the cold deep near freezing isothermal layer did indeed prevail across the far northern/northwestern Piedmont, in the heart of the cold air damming region in place east of the mountains. As of 20z, latest reports coming in across that region have a snowfall maximum of 14 to 14.5 inches across Forsyth and Person counties. However, impressive mid-level dry punch overspreading the area from the west signals the loss of saturation aloft and ice crystals aloft, which will largely end the production of accumulating snow and sleet, that is until the arrival arrival of the next shortwave later this evening and overnight. Thus, expect the snow/sleet across the far northern zones to change-over to light freezing rain/drizzle to occur within the next hour.

The approach of the upper wave late this evening and overnight will lead to re-saturation and cooling aloft. At the same time, weak cold dry air advection on the back-side of the surface low moving farther offshore, will result in near to sub-freezing temps across the the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. The re-introduction of lift and ice into the cloud will result in another period of light snow/sleet across spreading east across the area. Additional snowfall amounts are expected to be light, ranging between a half inch to 1 to 1.5 inches across the far northern zones. While the far SE counties could see some a mix wet snow and rain, above freezing temps in the mid 30s will result in little to accumulation.

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59 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

HRRR is further south than the Euro

hrrr_ptype_columbia_17.png

Although there is some question about depth of the moisture, Models stubbornly warm the lowest levels over north ga/upstate overnight which is why some  of that is shown as rain. despite northeasterly flow, which is a bit baffling to be honest.  That said, some of the recent runs are a touch colder. Nam especially seems bizarre, showing temps rising into the upper 30s and even near 40 over the northwest upstate. There could be some weak downslope over far ne ga/nw upstate late but otherwise flow is remains NNE to NE throughout the low levels and if this happens it will surely be a first. I can't recall a single time where the temp starts above freezing already and rises several more degrees during the night with NE winds/flow so i'm curious how this shakes out. HRRR is much colder, especially in the upstate, showing temps staying right where they are now which seems like a no brainer. Models were pretty damn close with temps in the end here...got only to 32.7 here, which is a degree warmer than i thought it would get.  So I can't totally discount it.  Hopefully Places that were screwed and missed out will get a little something out of it. 

I would expect i would see  some here too but the hrrr is dangerously close to showing most of the precip missing here. naturally. 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, griteater said:

Some of us have started adding some model performance thoughts on the storm here, FYI: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49398-southeast-winter-storm-threats-model-performance/?do=findComment&comment=5065039

 

Many thanks to you, @burgertime and others for the pbp with this storm.  Well done guys!

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