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Lookout

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About Lookout

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    It is inevitable

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  • Location:
    Athens, Ga
  1. APRIL 2018 OBS

    picked up 3.10 inches altogether here. Always hope for these big rains in april and may in case we end up with a dry summer.
  2. March 2018 Obs

    31 for a low this morning....first freezing temp in a silly long time.
  3. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    going to be 75 here today.
  4. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    It seems like almost every other year we end up in a situation in march and April where we scream at the sky where was this **$&#&#&# pattern in January and february??? I hate it too...by the time late March is here, I'm ready for spring.. as much as I love cold weather....I hate that cold...but not cold enough crap we see by then. Even though its really rare...I hold out hope every year we see some unusually cold upper low that can produce surprises. I wonder if I'll ever see anything like 93 again though.
  5. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    It's funny....at my house it has been sub par (officially a dusting which I wasn't around for.. and around an inch of snow) but ive still seen snow several times, including a big and historic early season one and a modest ice event thanks to my trips to gainesville so for that reason it's been an above average one for me...lord knows I've seen many years worse than this one. I never really bought into the hype for February when everyone was optimistic...which looks like a good idea now...but right now I'm not convinced winter is over either. I know some people love their indexes and teleconnections and all that stuff but I've been around long enough that it's rather silly to me to be declaring anything with too much certainty right now...not only because its only feb 7th and they can change but because things can happen when all the indexes would say other wise. But if it's over, look on the bright side....the mid Atlantic/DC could end up with their second overall bad winter by their standards too... .
  6. February 2018 Obs

    I've had several claps of thunder this morning. Rain has been quite heavy at times. 1.00 inch of rain and counting. edit..ended up with around 1.25.
  7. Super Bowl Sunday Slippery Suprise Storm Obs

    Good point...I meant to say high resolution models did well with temps..gfs never got this location to freezing either. It was about 3 degrees too warm here...right at its average bust range in these events. It busted closer to 4 to 5 degrees to the south around athens. Same goes for euro.
  8. Super Bowl Sunday Slippery Suprise Storm Obs

    Radar estimates are between 2 and 2.5 but gauges nearby show around 1.75. As a shock to no one I'm sure that is an inch or more than the gfs has been forecasting for days until the 0z run. Also an inch more than the canadian. Btw have to give a shout out to the icon. It had showed heavier amounts consistently.. Temp wise was a little too cold last evening before the rain started.
  9. Super Bowl Sunday Slippery Suprise Storm Obs

    Same here. There was a nice glaze over everything this morning....to the point the top of the pines were starting to sag a little here too. Overall about what I expected although I am a little surprised temps didn't drop a degree or two lower.. Lowest temp here was 31. Early on I expected to get to 29 or 30 here based on wetbulbs. Indeed it looked like it was well on its way at first with a very fast drop in temps from 36 to 31 with more room to drop with dps around 25 but it never did. Suspect the rain rates were just too heavy. Have to say...the models did a good job with this one...although they warmed it up above freezing about 3 hours too fast here. Temp got to 33 about 30 minutes ago...but that's not too bad.
  10. Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

    Started as all rain here...temp dropped fast. Went back up to 36 before it started but in 20 to 25 minutes its down to 31...light icing on cars now, Upstream saw 6 and 7 degree temp falls with less impressive dewpoints...given lower dewpoints here 29 or 30 still looks good. Edit...probably closer to 30 based on current dps.
  11. Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

    Yeah the average error rate is generally in that neighborhood in cad situations if the setup is right. I haven't had much time to look at things but based on the nam having the cold pool up to and above 950mb north of 85...along with NE to ene flow through that level..it's a bit worrisome. It means we likely will see good temp response via evap cooling..and the cold pool won't be scoured out or warmed up through WAA alone. Negative factor is the precip rates...looks heavy enough that drag could help temps rise...plus it's hard to accumulative fast raining that hard. That said, its pretty much a lock the models are at least a few degrees too warm after saturation...especially given the depth being up to 950mb.. . Will be interesting to see if the high precip rates will keep ice totals in check. Had to be up here in gainesville...currently overcast and 35 over 14 with a 10mph or so ne wind. Expecting to get to 29 here.
  12. Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

    Looks like you probably end up with a decent event. Initial conditions are cold....especially at your elevation...probably will be close to freezing or maybe even below freezing when it starts per 950mb temps. Nam showing temps at 12z sunday in the upper 20s up to 950mb for your location..with temps warming to 33 by 15z...which is probably overdone of course by at least a couple of hours...but even if accurate, models in general show 0.50 to 0.75 by then. You are also lucky in that it looks like it should start as a brief period of snow too. I'm fairly confident that areas from gainesville and along/north of 85 will see a moderate event..(edit to add for clarification...thinking 0.10 to 0.20) ..but think only minor icing down this way/athens area (0.10 or less) ..mainly because the depth of the cold layer is a fair bit shallower than just to the north if the nam's soundings are right...plus surface temps/wetbulbs are warmer/marginal. However, the nam is a bit warmer than the canadian, icon and gfs with temps before precip arrives. All are several degrees colder which makes a big difference if there will be any freezing rain south of 85. But even if they are more correct, the depth of the cold layer probably means only minor icing (if any at all) down this way before going to all rain by 9am. Even if temps technically are slightly below freezing longer, the depth and max temp of the warm layer means the rain drops will be so warm that not much of it would freeze. Fortunately i'll likely be in gainesville anyway. Looks like an all rain event for atlanta...with maybe some minor icing down to the far northeast burbs as is typical. But From hall county northeastward....temps aloft and the surface cold layer are deep enough and cold enough it looks like some respectable glazing appears likely. Really curious how the icon does with this system. I haven't noticed much of a cold bias with it yet but it's been colder down this way consistently for several runs...6 degrees colder in fact at 03z sunday (33) vs the nam (39) and 3 degrees colder than the gfs (36). Interesting the gfs is actually several degrees colder than the nam before precip starts yet ends up warmer than the nam after precip starts. Gfs really leaves a lot to be desired sometimes. It shows very little temp response to evap cooling...in fact ZERO down this way.
  13. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    I love the cold and snow but Im looking forward to a small break. This has been a rather exhausting winter in terms of how much time and energy spent tracking storms...and it's only mid January. Not that I'm complaining Incredible stretch of cold.
  14. Well we have managed to get our first measurable snow in Bogart.  It is a beautiful site to see.  Should be very pretty when daylight comes. 

  15. 1/16-1/17 Event OBS

    That's awesome. Always rooting for folks down that way...seems the only spot harder to get snow than here is there
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