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Lookout

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About Lookout

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    It is inevitable

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    Athens, Ga

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  1. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Winter has sucked so bad here that a 33 degree rain could be considered a win.
  2. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    i'd honestly be a little surprised if north carolina doesn't get something frozen or freezing over the next 10 days. Looks like this hot garbage of a winter will continue for ga though unless the models are faster with the highs building into the mid atlantic/northeast or we see things shift south..which lol...we know that won't happen.
  3. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yeah all the "certainty" and general bullish calls is certainly apart of why. I'm a realist and know what to actually expect...which in general is worst case scenario but one would think given all the bullish calls, it wouldn't have been this bad. Was wondering if it was just me but as I said this the other day, i don't think i've ever seen so many fictional cad/winter events in the long range than i have this year.....yet none of them have actually materialized which is quite remarkable. That has helped in adding to my frustration of this year too. It's nothing new to see fantasy storms never materialize but damn....You would think that at least ONE of the 100 that have been shown the past two months would actually verify. Not even worth it, zero support on the 18z gefs..at least in terms of temps. There was actually more on the 12z run but still not a lot.
  4. Lookout

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    Was going to post this,...it's absolutely crazy to see snow down to 6200 feet there.
  5. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I laughed Pathetic but predictable. Only hope i have of seeing a thing seems to be sunday if enough precip develops since temps/wetbulbs certainly start cold enough....but precip looks so marginal/light we won't be able to take advantage of it. At least it will likely keep temps down all day and it will feel like winter rather than freaking may. What a sad excuse of a winter where a raw mid to upper 30s day is looked at as some type of victory. I'm not sure i've ever seen so many fantasy storms on the gfs that never actually materialize than this year. Meanwhile, it's freaking 81 here right now. I just can't get over how horrible the winter outlooks have been. Normally when they bust they don't bother me because as i said the other day i never put any stock in them but this year it's really bugged me for some reason.
  6. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Not much. Funny though, i thought it wasn't supposed to be this crappy. I have never nor do i now pay any attention to winter outlooks but it's hard to miss considering how much people talk about them....however, I have to say i can't believe anyone pays attention to them. I know a lot of people try their best and put a lot of work into them but regardless of how many big words they use, how many analogs, or how many indexes they come up with.....it's still no better than flipping a coin...indeed it seems to be worse than flipping a coin. Maybe one day someone will crack the code but given the amount of inherent chaos in the system i doubt it.
  7. Lookout

    Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

    it was pretty insane how much local media was playing it up. Even for the south it seemed absurd. glad you got to srr at least a few flakes though.
  8. Lookout

    Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

    yep..for sure it almost never fails it will dissappoint.. .this never looked too promising except in alabama but it was obvious laat night the cold air was lagging too far behind. feel for northern alabama...had a warning and pretty much got nothing. at least here there was never a chance. this winter sucks.
  9. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    speaking of that..the 12z icon goes nuts over tn thanks to that snow cover..5 to 15 below unfortunately looks like it screws ga/sc snow wise (east of atlanta/gainesville). does keep temps in the 20s for highs though, even here in the heart of the screwzone.
  10. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    gfs and euro ensembles look pretty decent for the nw half. ....but of course areas to the east of 85 look pretty much screwed with the leeside screwzone in full effect...which means i'll likely have to make a trip to see it. But an inch or two looks possible and north/west of an atlanta to gainesville to clayton line. In fact some of the euro ensembles show several inches for the mountains. Would love to see this thing put down a few inches ahead of this arctic airmass to maximize the low temp potential. Although the euro doesn't look nearly as impressive with the outbreak as it once did.
  11. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    if the 12z gfs is right with highs in the teens up your way, it would be impressive if it wasn't the coldest day lol. Even the downslope screwzone might stay below freezing. for several runs now the gfs has been showing dewpoints that if came to pass would surely be some of the lowest we have ever seen.....and to see it over such a large area is even more impressive. Although WAA commences after this, Have to believe the gfs is too warm though with morning lows the next day with high pressure becoming situated directly over head in the carolinas thursday night/friday morning with dewpoints still in the negative teens.
  12. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    yep, everything was always dependent on enough precip falling to take advantage and unfortunately it was just bone dry. Story of the winter so far south of nc...just can't get anything to come together right. Still this was a fascinating day here with the warm front and something happened that is pretty rare...the warm front moved through but then pushed back slightly south. Normally of course once it comes through it keeps going or at least doesn't come back. Athens observations bear it out...the warm front moved just north of here and then came back south. Temps went from the mid 40s to the upper 60s and damn near 70 only to fall back into the low to mid 50s the past few hours. Meanwhile just to the south it's still in the mid to upper 60s. A few miles to the north temps mostly stayed in the 40s. Indeed at one point, one observation site just a couple of miles away from athens airport was 10 degrees warmer. Personally, cad/wedges aren't just about ice/snow so this is pretty neat to me. Here is athens observations this afternoon. 23 Jan 5:51 pm 53 44 71 ENE 9 10.00 OVC046 29.02 1012.0 29.88 23 Jan 4:51 pm 57 46 67 ENE 10 10.00 OVC049 29.04 1012.8 29.90 23 Jan 3:51 pm 69 49 49 S 9 10.00 FEW049,BKN090 29.07 1013.6 29.93 23 Jan 2:51 pm 68 49 50 S 9G20 10.00 BKN046,BKN090 29.11 1015.0 29.97 23 Jan 1:51 pm 60 48 64 NE 10 10.00 FEW037 29.16 1016.9 30.03 23 Jan 12:51 pm 54 44 69 ENE 10 10.00 FEW030 29.23 1019.4 30.10 55 39 23 Jan 12:33 pm 53 43 69 NE 8 10.00 SCT013 29.25 30.12 23 Jan 12:16 pm 52 43 71 ENE 10 10.00 BKN010,OVC015 29.28 30.15 23 Jan 11:51 am 51 43 74 E 13 10.00 OVC008 29.29 1021.8 30.16 23 Jan 10:51 am 46 38 73 ENE 6 10.00 OVC009 29.34 1023.5 30.21 23 Jan 9:51 am 42 34 73 E 10 10.00 OVC008 29.36 1024.1 30.23 23 Jan 9:27 am 41 33 73 E 9 10.00 OVC009 29.39 30.26 23 Jan 8:51 am 41 33 73 E 9 10.00 OVC010 29.39 1025.2 30.26 23 Jan 8:41 am 41 33 73 E 9 10.00 OVC010 29.39 30.26 Yep, if i had not gone to gainesville the past few years , i wouldn't have seen a thing. Been a pretty bad winter weather drought around these parts.
  13. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Although i've never been optimistic about this system and still don't believe we get much of anything, i'd rather they be showing it squashed than to the north. Even though it's not looking good at the moment, The lack of run to run consistency should be enough to not rule it or anything out right now.
  14. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    It's the southeast....we always find ways to screw things up or finding ways for warm air to rule the day. meh....the next run will probably be dry and 50s lol. Euro has been all over the place in the medium and long range of late.
  15. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yep, chances of light freezing rain (or sleet at first as gsp mentioned) have gone up. Considering the cold conditions, it won't take much to cause some slick spots on area roads tue night/wed am after this cold spell..especially in the western carolinas/extreme northern ga where temps should be below freezing or near freezing before any precip arrives. nam/3km nam is now keeping temps stuck in the 30s all day in cad areas as i expected the other day..and i wouldn't be surprised if they are still too warm since even the nam suite are showing 15 to 20 degree rise in dewpoints without much temp response. I would imagine there will be some dewpoint recovery even without precip due to southerly flow just off the surface, but it's probably a little overdone or at least not showing enough temp falls. (assuming there is enough precip). Actual lows and highs wednesday will depends on how much precip actually falls and if it will be enough to fully take advantage of the dry air/low wetbulbs. Assuming there are at least light showers around wed, i wouldn't be surprised to see it take to mid day or early afternoon to get above freezing in spots and then stay stuck in 33 to 35 range until the front passes in the heart of cad territory. Depending on model run/model, they have all hinted at an axis of heavier totals across far north ga into the upstate...on the order of 0.10 to 0.20 though mid to late morning when temps should still be below freezing. Considering the light nature of the precip which should promote freezing on elevated surfaces, could be some respectable light glazing and pretty scenes in those areas if comes to pass. I was a little surprised it was that many but in general those that have snow were big hits. But I remain highly skeptical though since we are dealing with a northern stream systems which a lot of times the models get wrong at this range.
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