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Lookout

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About Lookout

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    It is inevitable

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    Athens, Ga

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  1. Lookout

    2019 Banter Thread

    As a fan of cosmology/astronomy since I was a kid, this is about as cool as it gets. First pic of a black hole.
  2. Lookout

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    I got 5 sprinkles around 5 am this morning and that's it. This after several runs of most models showing at least 0.25...with some showing 0.40 liquid or more here (0.90 on the nam) , multiple runs of the nam showing several "inches", as well as several runs of the fv3...and euro showing at least a little something. I had a bad feeling yesterday when the hrrr showed the precip shield also well east of where every other model hand it. It figures that since 9 out of 10 systems trend nw, this one would be the one to trend east since that would be the best chance of assuring a screwjob here. This is why i was super cautious about my chances here because naturally the winter hadn't sucked enough. Someone had to get one last big F.U. in. Congrats to those who got some though. Non mountain April snow is pretty crazy, especially in sc.
  3. Lookout

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    Yeah this is something i've been watching all day. Temps are about right where they should be but the dewpoints are quite a bit lower than just about every model by a good 10 degrees to as much as 14 in a few spots. If this holds it could mean there could be a bit quicker changeover. This has more impact on ne ga than sc since the models have the changeover happening pretty fast there where as it changes over slower here.
  4. Lookout

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    yeah, wish i could believe it...nam shows around 5 or 6 inches here. Although the nam has a reputation of being too wet it's had somewhat of a dry bias this winter. Given the lack of model support for so much, looks like it very well could be back to it's old tricks. The second wettest model, euro, shows 0.60 along and southeast of greenwood to rock hill. It's a clear outlier right now.
  5. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    nam holds firm on it's much wetter solution. As high as 1.25 to 1.50 down near greenwood...just shy of an inch here liquid....0.85 to 0.90
  6. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Unless there is a last minute nw shift, I would think any significant snowfall would be south of 85, not north due to lack of overall precip..not to mention that some will be needed to cool surface temps/column. Models seem pretty unanimous that the best liquid totals and best chances are south of 85. Hard to believe, especially since surface temps start off so warm...in the low to mid 40s. In fact the nam shows temps as warm as 46/47 as late as 06z . Using a sounding in the heart of the heaviest area of progged snow on the nam in the upstate, At 06z, Wetbulb temps at the surface start off only as low as around 37 and wetbulb zero heights are between 925 and 950mb. So we are talking about needing some serious cooling to get some snow....much less significant accumulation. Gfs/fv3 are more reasonable showing temps in the upper 30s to low 40s at 06z. For my neck of the woods, there isn't much difference temp wise at the surface or aloft than sc so i would expect it's possible to see some flakes at some point here too if these projections are correct but i'm skeptical of actual accumulations..outside of a brief dusting or something. That said, i'm personally rooting for the fv3 Seeing any snow at all in april would be pretty ridiculous though. Looks pretty doubtful. Temps look way too warm aloft. Besides temps aloft, the further one east goes the more they will be fighting solar insolation and it's brutal this time of year. I'm skeptical most has a chance to get that much...i'm thinking at most an inch....maybe 2 is the general safe bet for max totals. Nam seems out to lunch with it's excessive liquid totals with most models only showing half that much or even less and some will be needed to cool surface temps too. The irony though that we could get snow, much less accumulation, in freaking april after we couldn't get a damn thing all winter. Someone has a sense of humor.
  7. Lookout

    March 2019 Observations

    lol.....yeah. shame the temp isn't colder though, only 37. Won't complain though since i had low expectations of being missed completely.
  8. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    flurries just started here.
  9. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    yep, also think the same could happen here in ga..especially between columbus to macon north/south of atlanta/athens. Models have consistently shown it cold enough on the northern fridge/back edge for snow. Surface temps are initially an issue the further east you go but temps fall to near freezing early south of atlanta so a light dusting isn't out of the question in these areas. It's the long range hrrr so take it with a grain of salt but latest says maybe a little more than just a dusting in a tiny area..several hours of light snow between atlanta and macon with temps at or below freezing and a narrow band of more than 0.10 liquid. Temps start out already near freezing when it begins too. Would be nice if the models have been underestimating precip all along. The other day where we had a long line of showers/rain training over the same area for quite a distance (across the entire state) and not a single model picked up on it, including all the high resolution ones (didn't even show up on the simulated composite radar). Was thinking at the time, why can't this ever happen when it's cold. Would be nice if they missed this one by that much. this would keep the winter for being a total shutout for a lot of folks.
  10. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    gfs is a bit wetter than previous runs for everyone..especially carolinas where i'd say it's a lot wetter. previous runs had little to none, now has a few tenths.
  11. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I'm watching this for my self to see if i can get a handful of flakes if i'm lucky as the trend has been for the precip to be a little further north here in ga. But knowing the way this winter has gone, the more painful runs that keep the band of precip just a county or two to the south will probably be the ones that verify. (euro) Icon has come a little further north this morning though, as well as the wrf suite. Probably my last shot at seeing anything this year unless something strange happens. If i manage to get more than a few minutes of rain/snow mix at 36 then this will be the highlight of the winter here.
  12. Lookout

    CAD "ALWAYS" Overperforms

    .Not every cad event over performs but in general temps do normally bottom out a little lower than advertised and it breaks down slower than advertised. However it seems most people seem to judge a cad event solely on the basis of whether people reach 32/get freezing/frozen precip or not. In reality, We have a lot of cad events where we are in fact colder and for longer but few people pay attention if there is no real threat for frozen/freezing precip. But also it might seem like there are less surprises because frankly the models are able to forecast these events better than they used to be. Dry air/low dewpoints/wetbulbs are still a problem for the models but this year and the past few really, there has been a lack of any real dry/cold air with these events, including this one..where temps soared into the 40s in va/nc yesterday and little in the way of dry air or really cold air off the surface to make up for it. We also have had more cases of cold air not being established before the moisture and it's always hard to over perform if that is the case. But the lack of dry air with recent events certainly seems to be a change vs the past....quite often with these wedges wetbulbs would be below freezing...but recently, and certainly this year, that hasn't been the case. Sort of hard to over perform with freezing/frozen precip when wetbulbs never or barely get below freezing.
  13. Lookout

    February 2019 Observations

    yeah it over performed alright, had tons of lightning and heavy rain yesterday...far more than the relatively light amounts the models were showing. great times.
  14. Lookout

    Feb 19-20 Winter Storm Threat

    I really can't get over a 1040/1041mb high in perfect position and we still can't get anything worthwhile in ga/sc.
  15. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    The trend has been to slow precip arrival and allow temps to get well into the 40s tuesday across nc so the odds of it over performing to me have gone down imo unless that trend reverses which there is still time to do so. Frustrating to say the least though As it seems with every single wedge this year there is one piece missing or something isn't timed right.....and with this one it's once again lack of dry/cold enough surface air. This despite a well place high and a respectably strong one...in the upper 1030s. Normally such a high with even "average" cold air means it's game on for cad country... but at the surface there just isn't much cold air to work with. It's pretty reflective of how bad this winter has been that even with high of that strength and position that we still can't even get something minor south of nc, with the exception of the higher elevations. That said, It does seem somewhat likely to see at least a little freezing rain in the higher elevations (above 1000 feet elevation) from ne ga and the usual prime areas in far nw sc/western nc based on subfreezing temps just off the surface on pretty much every model. mix to rain here would feel like hitting the lottery...
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