Lookout

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  1. Impressive. Some good training going on in the upstate with no signs of letting up. Radar estimates over 10 inches now showing up. Got around 3 inches here...was getting a little dry so glad to get it.
  2. Got Another inch of rain here in the past 24 hours. I knew this winter had been wet but good grief. Athens had its wettest ever dec-feb..almost 25 inches! Athens got 11 inches in feb alone. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSAtlanta/status/1234491501293555712/photo/1
  3. Yeah it's hard to get a lot when you start off in the low to mid 40s and daytime too boot. If it had started at night, it probably would have been a different story. The lack of low dewpoints hurt too. I would imagine there aren't too many examples of big snows where temps start in the low to mid 40s with dewpoints only in the 30s upon arrival of precip in ga and sc. Still there should be some accumulations before it's over. Getting any snow at all given how warm this winter has been should be considered a big victory.
  4. It's got to be close in the upstate. this station near paris mountain is only 800 feet or so higher than greenville and it's 31. Name:ETV Greenville Valid:20 Feb 2:20 PM EST Temp:31 °F0 °C Dew Point:30 °F-1 °C Relh:96 % Wind Speed:16 mph14 kts Wind Dir:ENE75° Gust:22 mph19 kts Wind Chill:20 °F Altimeter:30.08 in
  5. I've seen some weird stuff happen up there when you would think it would be a slam dunk. I'm assuming it's because of the low level warmth sort of being blocked from being scoured out even with a ne flow because of the mountains and the cooling is purely precip driven. Indeed you can see the stubborn low level warmth on the 925 to 975mb levels..which are actually colder to the south and east as the day goes on. A lot just plain heavy rain here currently. I would expect i might get some to mix in by 4pm as the low levels cool even more with ne flow with an ok chance of a full turnover by 0z before ending...unless that band in sc is able to hold on longer and/or this band of heavy precip cools that mid level warm nose a little faster than expected. Don't expect any accumulation since it won't last long even if it does happen but i hope i at least see a little fall.
  6. just saw on channel 5 some flakes mixing in with the rain there. not too surprising given the amount of bright banding. No flakes here even though i'm under it....but the drops have that "slop" sound to them. I do wonder if there could be a brief surprise changeover or good mixing north of atlanta up near gainesville. Some 50 dbz showing up on composite.
  7. the new hrrr is now showing that band of snow now across the southern upstate/midlands. I find this rather impressive given it's surface warm bias which skews against it's snow forecasts. Only reason this might work out is flow in the mid levels is out of the northeast instead of north or northwest..in which case there would be no chance at all.
  8. hrrr is busting temp wise here...as expected. 37 degree temps extend back to atlanta where all night the hrrr had temps of 42 to 44 degrees right now. Using hrrr where precip is falling...especially with any respectable dewpoint depressions...is a waste of time. As for the rdu area, i wouldn't worry too much about those 40s. There is more than enough cold/dry air just off the surface to allow a fast temp drop once the steady precip arrives. wetbulb zero heights as low as 985mb on the 12z nam is easily low enough to produce a rapid temp drop. Yep...The biggest concern i have for the upstate/western nc is just overall lack of precip...especially into nc. Virtually every model is showing a decrease in the amounts there..generally less than a half inch...even for the upstate and obviously some of that is going to be needed to cool the surface. One thing i'm going to be watching out for though is the southern upstate later this afternoon/evening. wrf suite and nam/3km are all paining a swath of snow from greenwood northeast..as an area of precip lingers behind long enough to catch up to the caa aloft. Would be ironic to say the least if they somehow manage to do better than the upstate.
  9. Yeah not the best layout and I dont think they have ever updated that page. Anywho, thur going to suck around here...thinking much of north ga/upstate will end up with it being 33 to 35 because of how cold the low levels will be.
  10. Weather nerds https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ Also...only has rap, nam, and gfs but old favorite is twister...it shows more levels on the text soundings....sure wish more sites had detailed text soundings like they do. It sure helps seeing those ewls. Arl is ok but the annoying security stuff is...well annoying. http://www.twisterdata.com/
  11. Yep..nam is super aggressive with that warm nose at 750 to 825mb.....would screw pretty much all of the upstate and even into nc/Charlotte for a good while.
  12. Given how often systems this winter have been wetter than expected or at a bare minimal not drier than expected, I think I would lean toward the wetter ones if I was in nc. This idea that the euro is never wrong or is right the vast majority of the time is bizarre to me. I often wonder if the developers of it invented memory swipes too because it seems like people always forget that it's wrong quite a lot too. That being said, it might be right this time but I wouldn't favor it vs the weight of all the other guidance. I agree..not sure where this idea it wont be cold enough in nc is coming from.
  13. I imagine snow would be more widespread than what the icon shows. It did poorly capturing the surface cooling from last weekend's snow. For example, Guaranteed there would be a faster changeover in the upstate than what its showing.
  14. A bit of a frustrating run though as if not for a warm nose at 750 to 825mb it would be a lot more snow in north ga and the lower half of the upstate. Probably would be a zone of sleet but whether its able to actually accumulate is questionable. Maybe if there is decent lift and precip rates it could cause a changeover sooner than expected. Cant go without saying though, there is another multiple inch rain event preceding it for ga and sc. Just unreal how much precip we are getting.
  15. If anyone needs a reminder about not throwing in the towel too early...look at today's rain across ga..been raining all morning here when Most of the models had very little or none at all here in the past 72 hours. Indeed go back and see how poorly the models handled today's rain over the past few days. Cold air supply might be lacking for some but i sure wouldn't get get too discouraged over precip amounts this early for Thursday. Feel like for those in nc stand a good chance...soundings show a cold profile with a really shallow surface warm layer on most guidance that probably would be overcome with decent precip. Upstate might see a changeover at some point but Think this is probably a classic case of the mountains screwing ga by blocking caa. Not buying the Canadian showing precip into friday.