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Lookout

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About Lookout

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    It is inevitable

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    Athens, Ga

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  1. Lookout

    June 2019 OBS

    Picked up 2 inches today in a couple of good storms. One of which had some of the largest raindrops i think i've ever seen. Legit sounded like hail but it wasn't. Gives me around 7 inches the past 10 days.
  2. Lookout

    June 2019 OBS

    52 here too....was quite cool.. Little late but Wed the temp was stuck in the low 60s all day thanks to the rain. After the rain, the view today has been stunning...with crystal blue skies and everything turned green. Sure wish it was like this all summer.
  3. Lookout

    June 2019 OBS

    picked up around 4.20 so far with maybe a little more today. Probably not as much as a lot of locations just to the north, west, and southwest of here but glad to get it....it was very much needed. Now looking forward to the cool weather....if there is some rain around wed, temps could be quite low in damming areas. Depending on the run, nam/fv3 showing temps only in the upper 50s to low 60s wed afternoon. Indeed wetbulbs are in the 50s. That's freaking awesome for mid june. Sure as hell beats upper 90s in may.
  4. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Just had a heavy downpour with only 30 to 35dbz....so these showers/storms are efficient rain producers. Nam and rap showing pws maybe as high as 2.15 over the next 48 hours. Considering what the radar looks like now with quite a bit of training already, one can easily see how flash flooding could quickly become a problem over north ga into western nc. Already 1 to 4 inches of rain with a lot of back building to the south/southwest in the atlanta/gainesvlle/athens region. Finally got a good storm/rain yesterday...around 2 inches in 30 minutes. The rain rates were very high so there was a lot of runoff which was something to see after being so bone dry for so long...but what was even more amazing about it was seeing how fast the ground soaked it up. Not sure i've ever seen so much water disappear so fast. So that will help for a little while.
  5. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Same here...was generally between 97 to 99 but never 100 so euro was a few degrees too warm....but certainly that was bad enough. Soooooo glad that hellish pattern finally has changed. Its bone dry here...indeed on the line of moderate drought....seems likely most get enough rain to change the course over the next few weeks...thankfully avoiding conditions getting worse. Hate to think what this summer would be like if we maintained that pattern.
  6. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yep...not a lot to say when it's hot and dry day after day. This much heat this early is depressing as hell. The only positive is that if its going to be hot it might as well be record setting. Although ffc isn't forecasting 100 here, I expect I will. Euro has been showing 100 here for days....last night run is still showing 100 here from sat through Thursday. Ridiculous.
  7. Lookout

    2019 Banter Thread

    As a fan of cosmology/astronomy since I was a kid, this is about as cool as it gets. First pic of a black hole.
  8. Lookout

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    I got 5 sprinkles around 5 am this morning and that's it. This after several runs of most models showing at least 0.25...with some showing 0.40 liquid or more here (0.90 on the nam) , multiple runs of the nam showing several "inches", as well as several runs of the fv3...and euro showing at least a little something. I had a bad feeling yesterday when the hrrr showed the precip shield also well east of where every other model hand it. It figures that since 9 out of 10 systems trend nw, this one would be the one to trend east since that would be the best chance of assuring a screwjob here. This is why i was super cautious about my chances here because naturally the winter hadn't sucked enough. Someone had to get one last big F.U. in. Congrats to those who got some though. Non mountain April snow is pretty crazy, especially in sc.
  9. Lookout

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    Yeah this is something i've been watching all day. Temps are about right where they should be but the dewpoints are quite a bit lower than just about every model by a good 10 degrees to as much as 14 in a few spots. If this holds it could mean there could be a bit quicker changeover. This has more impact on ne ga than sc since the models have the changeover happening pretty fast there where as it changes over slower here.
  10. Lookout

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    yeah, wish i could believe it...nam shows around 5 or 6 inches here. Although the nam has a reputation of being too wet it's had somewhat of a dry bias this winter. Given the lack of model support for so much, looks like it very well could be back to it's old tricks. The second wettest model, euro, shows 0.60 along and southeast of greenwood to rock hill. It's a clear outlier right now.
  11. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    nam holds firm on it's much wetter solution. As high as 1.25 to 1.50 down near greenwood...just shy of an inch here liquid....0.85 to 0.90
  12. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Unless there is a last minute nw shift, I would think any significant snowfall would be south of 85, not north due to lack of overall precip..not to mention that some will be needed to cool surface temps/column. Models seem pretty unanimous that the best liquid totals and best chances are south of 85. Hard to believe, especially since surface temps start off so warm...in the low to mid 40s. In fact the nam shows temps as warm as 46/47 as late as 06z . Using a sounding in the heart of the heaviest area of progged snow on the nam in the upstate, At 06z, Wetbulb temps at the surface start off only as low as around 37 and wetbulb zero heights are between 925 and 950mb. So we are talking about needing some serious cooling to get some snow....much less significant accumulation. Gfs/fv3 are more reasonable showing temps in the upper 30s to low 40s at 06z. For my neck of the woods, there isn't much difference temp wise at the surface or aloft than sc so i would expect it's possible to see some flakes at some point here too if these projections are correct but i'm skeptical of actual accumulations..outside of a brief dusting or something. That said, i'm personally rooting for the fv3 Seeing any snow at all in april would be pretty ridiculous though. Looks pretty doubtful. Temps look way too warm aloft. Besides temps aloft, the further one east goes the more they will be fighting solar insolation and it's brutal this time of year. I'm skeptical most has a chance to get that much...i'm thinking at most an inch....maybe 2 is the general safe bet for max totals. Nam seems out to lunch with it's excessive liquid totals with most models only showing half that much or even less and some will be needed to cool surface temps too. The irony though that we could get snow, much less accumulation, in freaking april after we couldn't get a damn thing all winter. Someone has a sense of humor.
  13. Lookout

    March 2019 Observations

    lol.....yeah. shame the temp isn't colder though, only 37. Won't complain though since i had low expectations of being missed completely.
  14. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    flurries just started here.
  15. Lookout

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    yep, also think the same could happen here in ga..especially between columbus to macon north/south of atlanta/athens. Models have consistently shown it cold enough on the northern fridge/back edge for snow. Surface temps are initially an issue the further east you go but temps fall to near freezing early south of atlanta so a light dusting isn't out of the question in these areas. It's the long range hrrr so take it with a grain of salt but latest says maybe a little more than just a dusting in a tiny area..several hours of light snow between atlanta and macon with temps at or below freezing and a narrow band of more than 0.10 liquid. Temps start out already near freezing when it begins too. Would be nice if the models have been underestimating precip all along. The other day where we had a long line of showers/rain training over the same area for quite a distance (across the entire state) and not a single model picked up on it, including all the high resolution ones (didn't even show up on the simulated composite radar). Was thinking at the time, why can't this ever happen when it's cold. Would be nice if they missed this one by that much. this would keep the winter for being a total shutout for a lot of folks.
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