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Lookout

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About Lookout

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    Athens, Ga

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  1. Lookout

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Have some snow mixing in with the rain here currently and 36.5.....after a high of 42. Despite being totally saturated and having drizzle/heavy mist all day...Temp dropped 4 degrees in about an hour after the sun set and the precip that is originating upstairs actually started falling. Temps at 950mb to the surface are as marginal as they can get here so doubt it does any more than this before it ends but I think a full changeover is possible over toward greenwood/columbia since it's slightly colder there just off the ground per 3km nam and hrrr (if it lasts long enough). Been watching it all day but was scared to say anything out of jinxing it lol....sad.
  2. Lookout

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Took a long time but getting first flakes here too...light rain/snow mix currently and 35. Radar isn't even showing returns over me at the moment.
  3. Lookout

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Fascinating. Never ceases to amaze me how the topography effects things around there/here. Sure makes it difficult to get a grasp on what to expect. I've often thought how nice it must be to be in the ohio valley or plains where it's a lot more straight forward. new hrrr is looking really promising, especially for south carollna where they got nothing. a bit colder and dropping a couple of tenths liquid With temps at 32/33.
  4. Lookout

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Yeah that sucks. How do you normally do when wedges break down? Do you warm up faster or slower than gsp/anderson? Temp here has actually dropped back to 34 after getting to 35. Still have a 10mph or so ne wind with heavy mist/drizzle. Hard to see me rising 4 or 5 degrees overnight.
  5. Lookout

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    Good post. I have No idea why anyone even looks at snow accumulation maps unless temps start below freezing and you know for sure everything will stick. Over ne ga, the hrrr showed too much sleet. It showed gainesvlle getting 6 hours of it but in reality they only got a little bit during the heavier rates. And it showed sleet making down to here and unless there was a little in the heavier showers, i never saw any. It was pretty obvious it was in error as it showed the max temp above ground getting to near 40 at the time it was showing it and the warm layer was deep. The fv3 over did the snow a bit a little bit but otherwise did an ok job as snow got down to cornelia and surrounding areas for an hour or two. Nam on the other hand failed to show it. Nam was too warm yesterday but in the end was about right as far as the lowest temps went. FV3 was actually a degree or two TOO cold. lol...What makes it worse is the best chance is further to the south AND the rich will get richer as those who got a lot today will get even more. So that means there could be a zone that has been exceptionally screwed and tortured where they watched areas to the north get snow last night/this morning and then watch areas to the south get some tonight/tomorrow morning. In my case, I fear i'm going to be in a situation where it's snowing a couple of counties over while it's dry here. I'd be happy just seeing a little bit falling through the air but will be lucky to even get that.
  6. Lookout

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    It looks like it. Across the board the models are colder from 925mb to the surface there. Essentially the models push the cold pool with the wedge to the south. Here is the nam's 925mb showing just that. Also here is the nam's 2 meter temps and as you can see, it has really warm temps over the ne corner/nw upstate. GFS is a few degrees colder and the hrrr is showing temps in the 32 to 34 range. although the gfs/hrrr are colder at the surface, they all show warming above it similar to below. That said, If precip develops and it's sort of widespread, i wonder if that would make it a bit colder than they are showing. the 18z nam was wetter than the 12z and it was a bit colder as a result at 925mb at least. A bit unusual but they have consistently showed this.
  7. Lookout

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    picked up 3.25 inches of melted snow. low was 32.7. Never expected anything here except at most maybe a tree top glaze but that was a degree warmer than i thought...in fact temps in general were a degree warmer across ga than i thought they'd get and probably 2 or 3 degrees warmer in the northern upstate...figured they'd get to 29 or 30. Can't be said enough that dry air makes the difference but it also hurt that the band of precip that spread across ga and sc didn't fall in north carolina instead. If it had fell across nc, it would have allowed them to wetbulb down and keep them cold, and that air would have eventually made it's way south. Instead, they warmed up quite a bit saturday and the rest is history. But i don't think anyone should feel robbed out of an ice storm, if it had been a few degrees colder with these winds and amounts, it would have been a disaster.
  8. Lookout

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    Although there is some question about depth of the moisture, Models stubbornly warm the lowest levels over north ga/upstate overnight which is why some of that is shown as rain. despite northeasterly flow, which is a bit baffling to be honest. That said, some of the recent runs are a touch colder. Nam especially seems bizarre, showing temps rising into the upper 30s and even near 40 over the northwest upstate. There could be some weak downslope over far ne ga/nw upstate late but otherwise flow is remains NNE to NE throughout the low levels and if this happens it will surely be a first. I can't recall a single time where the temp starts above freezing already and rises several more degrees during the night with NE winds/flow so i'm curious how this shakes out. HRRR is much colder, especially in the upstate, showing temps staying right where they are now which seems like a no brainer. Models were pretty damn close with temps in the end here...got only to 32.7 here, which is a degree warmer than i thought it would get. So I can't totally discount it. Hopefully Places that were screwed and missed out will get a little something out of it. I would expect i would see some here too but the hrrr is dangerously close to showing most of the precip missing here. naturally.
  9. Lookout

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Most of the time i end up being jealous of you and this one is no exception. The amount of sleet you could end up getting should be quite impressive....assuming the warm nose doesn't switch you over to freezing rain but it doesn't look like it will. For real....if it was and we had these high winds with it this much precip, people would be out of power for a week or more. The hell with that.
  10. Lookout

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    A couple of years ago i went to clayton for an event and it kept doing the same thing. Not much different from this setup in terms of thermal profiles. End up getting quite a lot in the end but the constant changeovers made me feel like we were robbed somewhat.
  11. Lookout

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    guess we will see how well the hrrr does here as it shows the 750mb warm nose screaming in changing it back over to mostly sleet in just 2 hours. Still, you should do well due to the high rates. Looks like via CC radar it's very close to changing over in gainesville too...wouldn't be surprised if they are seeing some sleet mixed in now....pretty amazing how fast that entire area switched over.
  12. Lookout

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Models doing a fairly good job with that changeover as they generally showed it happening around 02 to 03z. Snowing in cornelia at the last observation too.
  13. Lookout

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Interestingly many of the models hand a handle on this showing slightly warmer temps for a few hours in the mid levels before cooling back down. Wind is really starting to howl out there now...gusting over 20 here...yucky 38.
  14. Lookout

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    yep but it's still on course. None of the models really had it changing over to snow outside of rabun county/higher elevations until or after sunset. Taken verbatim, the fv3 has it occuring between 0z and 03z based on 850mb temps. It shouldn't be long before the upstate changes over. When it happens, It will probably happen in a hurry too. If there is a concern, it's the latest hrrr is a bit warmer than all it's previous runs. It has done a good job on these transitions and precip type the last several storms so i pay close attention to it. Could be some flooding issues...and thanks to very high winds power outages even without ice. FFC is forecasting 40 to 45mph gusts in athens and gainesville.
  15. Lookout

    December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

    hmm..not sure why but my last post went missing so here it is again. I'll be honest, i'm having issues with the 3km nam. For starters, it's too warm at the surface. Second, i find it next to impossible to believe there won't be more sleet than it shows over northeast ga where it essentially has none. Never mind it is warmer than even the hrrr at the surface. Third, it seems too warm aloft compared to the hrrr. Here is the 12z 3km nam 6 hour 850mb temp vs the 0z analyzed hrrr at 18z...
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