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Everything posted by Lookout

  1. Seeing snow in the mountains sure makes me crave winter. But speaking of snow, here is probably one of the most absurd snow forecasts I've ever seen for a 36 nws forecast. Gfs shows a 14 plus inch liquid the next 36 to 48 hours. . This is near mt. Muir...only up to 253 inches by the end of the afternoon tomorrow. Detailed Forecast Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 24. Southeast wind 65 to 70 mph increasing to 75 to 80 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 52 to 58 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. East wind 50 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 110 to 116 inches possible. Sunday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. East wind 40 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 73 to 79 inches possible
  2. Happy to say i Have gotten a little over 4 inches here the past few days with more on the way shortly. Needed it too, my area had been screwed pretty bad in the last several weeks. Still, areas north and east of here have gotten as much as 10 to 12 inches per radar estimations. Elberton has recorded just shy of 10 inches.
  3. Thats about how much I got the other day which was the first I've had in a long time. Days back I got zero when a lot of the northern half got soaked. Some rain to the south of me today..so I'm hoping. Sure need it.
  4. Same here in Gainesville. Despite temps in the mid 40s I've Been watching for it for the last few days since models were showing such such dry air was in place. Nothing impressive but im sure its the Last shot of any frozen precip around these parts until next season.
  5. It sure has. I'm frustrated but there would be no telling how pissed I'd be if I hadn't got a snow fix a few weeks ago. There were plenty of warning signs though. As burrel said, temps and dewpoints were unimpressive before hand. Its never good when you see a SURGE in dewpoints before hand like what was seen yesterday. Dps rose into the 20s in a lot of areas in nc. Plus the temps aloft were much higher than normal for a good icing cad event. 800 to 850mb temps above 10c in north Carolina is ridiculous. Not only that the above freezing layer was super deep..on gsos sounding this morning it was from around 650mb to 900mb...which means warm rain. When temps are only marginal that isn't a good recipe for accretion. Its a shame...it seems like it takes miracles these days to have a cold and dry airmass in place anymore. Its even more insane when you consider how cold it's been just west of here.
  6. Its really unreal. Gfs is showing 5 to 10 below tomorrow morning in ms...while most here in ga will only have a couple of mornings get into the 20s. Sad, pathetic, and frustrating to say the least.
  7. Yep. If this comes to pass, this high and cold is a different beast than the endless parade of marginal cad events we have had recently. The 12z gfs and Canadian are showing minimal temps of the wedge in the mid teens around 950 to 925mb all the way into ne ga. Been a long time since we have seen a cad event that cold.
  8. Yep..if precip comes in just a couple of hours earlier too it will make a difference too...which has been the trend.. Although there is a fairly deep dry layer, some precip could reach the surface as early as 9 to 10 am up to 85.
  9. Yeah it never seems to fail ours pop up on short notice. I agree it looks good for most, although down my way I'm on the razors edge as usual. It will come down to the elevated warm layer here. Gfs and euro aren't as aggressive with it as the nam and new 12z hrrr isn't either. I do expect to see flakes fall at least for a while..even if its just a mix. Gainesville to gsp probably will be the sweet spot (outside mountains) I consider it all a bonus after the 4 to 5 inches I saw in gatlinburg earlier this week but unlike that snow, which was dry, this will be the big flake variety which would be nice. Believe it or not I even saw about a minute worth of sleet last evening around 630 while I was feeding the dog and it was 48 degrees. That is the second highest temp I've ever seen sleet before iirc.
  10. Getting hit pretty good. About 3 inches or so.
  11. Snow is definitely picking up here over the past half hour..after being light for the most part. I have about an .75 to 1 inch on exposed surfaces but now even the asphalt is turning white.. For the first time some 30 to 35 dbz on radar at times . Nice to have some snow with temps subfreezing for a change.
  12. Same here as of about 30 minutes or so ago..was quite a long lull but ground turning white now.
  13. I'm in gatlinburg...light dusting so far (which has mostly melted except on hill tops) with just flurries currently. Mrx is Forecasting 4 to 6 (although last night mrx had 8 to 10).
  14. Top gust was 41 but im a bit protected from South winds. Didn't lose power thankfully but over a million out of power in ga at its peak was impressive. Winds are almost as gusty now as this morning. Gusting several times to 35/36. Jackson County Airport gust to 48mph last observation. In fact outages have gone back up in ga the past few hours. So not out of the woods.
  15. Pretty wild to see ts warnings so far inland with a gulf hurricane.....making landfall in LA no less . This is really a unique event given its hyper forward speed...and Winds just off the surface are impressive on models..especially wrf/hmon. Going to be really interesting to see how the still strong circulation interacts with the high topography over north ga and the upstate. The ridge tops from your area down to Rome could see some really high winds. Although some of the stronger winds aloft move overhead here, the lack of convection probably keeps most of the gusts in check here. In fact, Looks like it could be a real screwjob rain wise where im at. Zeta almost a cat 3.....110 at 4pm advisory with radar out of New Orleans showing 135mph winds and recon has 113 knot. LA just can't catch a break.
  16. 45 this morning here. Considering how hot we normally are this time of year you cant ask for much more.
  17. 4.35 here but I'm a bit disappointed. By yesterday I knew the totals would likely be less than 6 to 8 with models being a bit faster, further south, and showing more like 4 to 6 but given my location in relation to the center, I thought i still had a decent shot of 6 or 7. But heaviest stayed to the south..and even to the west..where they didnt get persistent little breaks in the heavier rain like here last night. Indeed 5 to 6 inch amounts are not that far away.. Good job by ffc with their forecast imo...likewise with gsp. Can't say the same for the gfs...it was consistently too far northwest with the axis of heaviest precip and totally missed the very heavy amounts across Central ga. Euro was too slow and wet and uk too far south with the rest doing OK in general. Glad to have gotten this rain as its been drier here than most areas nearby for the last few months.
  18. 12z euro showing a bullseye of around 14 inches here which is probably overdone....but 6 to 8 seems reasonable.
  19. Could use some rain here...this heat has quickly dried everything out. Got to 100 yesterday before cumulus developed. Athens and Macon got to 102. Been more clouds today so shouldn't be quite that bad today.
  20. Thankful for the relatively low dps the past few days.. especially when when compared to southeast la the past few days...where temps have been in the mid to upper 90s and dps in the low to mid 80s. HI values are nasty, into the 120s. Currently there are several stations in the 120s...including a couple as high as 126 and 127. One of those stations yesterday had a HI of around 131. NO airport had a hi of 121 a little bit ago. Truly ridiculous.
  21. Wow..low was 52 this morning...athens tied their record low of 53. Pretty wild for June 17th....going to make the mid 90s this weekend feel even worse though.
  22. Impressive. Some good training going on in the upstate with no signs of letting up. Radar estimates over 10 inches now showing up. Got around 3 inches here...was getting a little dry so glad to get it.
  23. Got Another inch of rain here in the past 24 hours. I knew this winter had been wet but good grief. Athens had its wettest ever dec-feb..almost 25 inches! Athens got 11 inches in feb alone. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSAtlanta/status/1234491501293555712/photo/1
  24. Yeah it's hard to get a lot when you start off in the low to mid 40s and daytime too boot. If it had started at night, it probably would have been a different story. The lack of low dewpoints hurt too. I would imagine there aren't too many examples of big snows where temps start in the low to mid 40s with dewpoints only in the 30s upon arrival of precip in ga and sc. Still there should be some accumulations before it's over. Getting any snow at all given how warm this winter has been should be considered a big victory.
  25. It's got to be close in the upstate. this station near paris mountain is only 800 feet or so higher than greenville and it's 31. Name:ETV Greenville Valid:20 Feb 2:20 PM EST Temp:31 °F0 °C Dew Point:30 °F-1 °C Relh:96 % Wind Speed:16 mph14 kts Wind Dir:ENE75° Gust:22 mph19 kts Wind Chill:20 °F Altimeter:30.08 in
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