Lookout

Thats nuts. Finished with 4.75 here...including a surprising down pour around midnight last night. And to think we have more inches on the way next week.

Got some rain/snow mix a moment ago here and I'm at 39. Only mixed because it was briefly heavy...although there isnt a thing on radar over me so these must be really low topped. Didnt last though. Fox 5 in atlanta showed it pouring snow at their studios a moment ago.

4.25 of rain so far. Dont remember the last time I've seen gsp and ffc issue so many flash flood warnings.

New warning to the south of me. Hoping its shifted enough that I'm out of the highest severe threat..but not the rain. I only had 1.6 inches when I posted that...now have 3.35. The amount of water in the pasture here is as high as ive ever seen it...glad I'm not in a low spot. Only a few modest gusts so far wind wise

Warned stormed moved just west of me earlier but nothing of note here. Watching storms intensify to the southwest through. Storms look more impressive than the warned one earlier. Given the high winds aloft it's a bit worrisome.

78 freaking degrees for a high today....79 in athens. Ridiculous. This winter sucks.

Looks like some sleet and even snow fell for a brief period at the start in parts of west ga with the heaviest stuff...from around Carrollton to the north. As expected though it's been brief with a quick changeover to rain. The way this year is going they should consider themselves lucky.

19 here...almost forgot what it was like to be that cold.

Well tried as hard as I could to see flakes this morning but alas only managed virga. Its beyond sad and embarrassing that winter sucks so much that it I have to resort to that. I guess the next sad excuse/fail for winter weather.... is there could be a little sleet at the start of precip thur evening due to dry low to mid levels before our exciting mid to upper 30s rain slams us.

Something to keep an eye on is maybe some light snow over north ga tonight..hrrr is showing some. (In fact up to an inch or more in the mountains over toward rome). Nav also has been consistent with a little. Despite the dry profiles and runs of everything else, still wouldn't surprise me to see some meso effects create a small area of flurries/showers into tomorrow morning. Not a huge chance but better than zero which is a lot considering how horrible this winter has been.

Picked up 3.5 inches of rain since sunday night. Quite a lot more than what I was expecting a few days ago.

Even though the worst of the storms just missed here, still got hit pretty hard with 40 mph gusts and about 0.35 of rain in a few minutes time. Wasn't as strong as the other day but happening at night makes it seem worse. Considering the daytime heating being added to the mix as opposed to getting hit at 2 in the morning, would expect it could get quite breezy with some of these. I always worry about storms coming in from the north or northwest here since there is a lot of open space in that direction which allows the wind to get quite high.

Just got the power back on after getting blasted. Number of trees down or damaged around the area after easily 50 to 60 mph winds and white out conditions. Was a bit nerve racking for a while. Not surprisingly ffc didnt issue a warning when it damn well should have...meanwhile gsp was on the ball as usual and smartly issued a warning for elbert county. Picked up another inch of rain.

As a fan of cosmology/astronomy since I was a kid, this is about as cool as it gets. First pic of a black hole.

Was going to post this,...it's absolutely crazy to see snow down to 6200 feet there.

Fascinating. Never ceases to amaze me how the topography effects things around there/here. Sure makes it difficult to get a grasp on what to expect. I've often thought how nice it must be to be in the ohio valley or plains where it's a lot more straight forward. new hrrr is looking really promising, especially for south carollna where they got nothing. a bit colder and dropping a couple of tenths liquid With temps at 32/33.

Yeah that sucks. How do you normally do when wedges break down? Do you warm up faster or slower than gsp/anderson? Temp here has actually dropped back to 34 after getting to 35. Still have a 10mph or so ne wind with heavy mist/drizzle. Hard to see me rising 4 or 5 degrees overnight.

Good post. I have No idea why anyone even looks at snow accumulation maps unless temps start below freezing and you know for sure everything will stick. Over ne ga, the hrrr showed too much sleet. It showed gainesvlle getting 6 hours of it but in reality they only got a little bit during the heavier rates. And it showed sleet making down to here and unless there was a little in the heavier showers, i never saw any. It was pretty obvious it was in error as it showed the max temp above ground getting to near 40 at the time it was showing it and the warm layer was deep. The fv3 over did the snow a bit a little bit but otherwise did an ok job as snow got down to cornelia and surrounding areas for an hour or two. Nam on the other hand failed to show it. Nam was too warm yesterday but in the end was about right as far as the lowest temps went. FV3 was actually a degree or two TOO cold. lol...What makes it worse is the best chance is further to the south AND the rich will get richer as those who got a lot today will get even more. So that means there could be a zone that has been exceptionally screwed and tortured where they watched areas to the north get snow last night/this morning and then watch areas to the south get some tonight/tomorrow morning. In my case, I fear i'm going to be in a situation where it's snowing a couple of counties over while it's dry here. I'd be happy just seeing a little bit falling through the air but will be lucky to even get that.

It looks like it. Across the board the models are colder from 925mb to the surface there. Essentially the models push the cold pool with the wedge to the south. Here is the nam's 925mb showing just that. Also here is the nam's 2 meter temps and as you can see, it has really warm temps over the ne corner/nw upstate. GFS is a few degrees colder and the hrrr is showing temps in the 32 to 34 range. although the gfs/hrrr are colder at the surface, they all show warming above it similar to below. That said, If precip develops and it's sort of widespread, i wonder if that would make it a bit colder than they are showing. the 18z nam was wetter than the 12z and it was a bit colder as a result at 925mb at least. A bit unusual but they have consistently showed this.

Although there is some question about depth of the moisture, Models stubbornly warm the lowest levels over north ga/upstate overnight which is why some of that is shown as rain. despite northeasterly flow, which is a bit baffling to be honest. That said, some of the recent runs are a touch colder. Nam especially seems bizarre, showing temps rising into the upper 30s and even near 40 over the northwest upstate. There could be some weak downslope over far ne ga/nw upstate late but otherwise flow is remains NNE to NE throughout the low levels and if this happens it will surely be a first. I can't recall a single time where the temp starts above freezing already and rises several more degrees during the night with NE winds/flow so i'm curious how this shakes out. HRRR is much colder, especially in the upstate, showing temps staying right where they are now which seems like a no brainer. Models were pretty damn close with temps in the end here...got only to 32.7 here, which is a degree warmer than i thought it would get. So I can't totally discount it. Hopefully Places that were screwed and missed out will get a little something out of it. I would expect i would see some here too but the hrrr is dangerously close to showing most of the precip missing here. naturally.

hmm..not sure why but my last post went missing so here it is again. I'll be honest, i'm having issues with the 3km nam. For starters, it's too warm at the surface. Second, i find it next to impossible to believe there won't be more sleet than it shows over northeast ga where it essentially has none. Never mind it is warmer than even the hrrr at the surface. Third, it seems too warm aloft compared to the hrrr. Here is the 12z 3km nam 6 hour 850mb temp vs the 0z analyzed hrrr at 18z...

I'll be honest, i'm having issues with the 3km nam. For starters, it's too warm at the surface. Second, i find it next to impossible to believe there won't be more sleet than it shows over northeast ga where it essentially has none. Never mind it is warmer than even the hrrr at the surface. Third, it seems too warm aloft compared to the hrrr. Here is the 12z 3km nam 6 hour 850mb temp vs the 0z analyzed hrrr at 18z. So imho, i'd be cautious about it right now imo. The hrrr has done well in the past few winter storms here in ga so i'd put more weight on it right now.

fv3 still showing a changeover to very heavy snow for a few hours down to gainesville. Nam still says no and only shows a change to freezing rain toward sunrise. Hrrr still showing a changeover to heavy sleet. Going to be fascinating to see which model, the fv3 or nam, wins this one.

yeah the hrrr is always...always...too warm in these situations at the surface. With constant rain and the onset of cad, i don't expect any rise in temps across north ga which means by this afternoon the hrrr could end up being about 5 degrees too warm on average by this afternoon in spots. These 3 to 5 degree biases are right right on average in cad. I'm also think they are way too warm sunday night into monday at the surface and 950mb which is in part causing the models to spit out rain instead of snow. What makes it even more unlikely is the fact the models are showing temps rising into the mid to upper 30s at NIGHT with still NE flow. There is some downslope warming possible over parts of far north of ga but for everywhere else I'd be truly shocked if that happened. So don't be surprised if that is snow instead of rain monday in a lot of places.

a note on the 3km and 12km nam, currently it's running on average about 3 degrees too warm right now here in georgia and in a lot of areas seeing rain. If it held this average error into tonight, temps would get to freezing in gainesville/85 corridor between 0z and 03z where it gets these areas down to 34 by 03z.