Lookout

Thats nuts. Finished with 4.75 here...including a surprising down pour around midnight last night. And to think we have more inches on the way next week.

Got some rain/snow mix a moment ago here and I'm at 39. Only mixed because it was briefly heavy...although there isnt a thing on radar over me so these must be really low topped. Didnt last though. Fox 5 in atlanta showed it pouring snow at their studios a moment ago.

4.25 of rain so far. Dont remember the last time I've seen gsp and ffc issue so many flash flood warnings.

New warning to the south of me. Hoping its shifted enough that I'm out of the highest severe threat..but not the rain. I only had 1.6 inches when I posted that...now have 3.35. The amount of water in the pasture here is as high as ive ever seen it...glad I'm not in a low spot. Only a few modest gusts so far wind wise

Warned stormed moved just west of me earlier but nothing of note here. Watching storms intensify to the southwest through. Storms look more impressive than the warned one earlier. Given the high winds aloft it's a bit worrisome.

78 freaking degrees for a high today....79 in athens. Ridiculous. This winter sucks.

Looks like some sleet and even snow fell for a brief period at the start in parts of west ga with the heaviest stuff...from around Carrollton to the north. As expected though it's been brief with a quick changeover to rain. The way this year is going they should consider themselves lucky.

19 here...almost forgot what it was like to be that cold.

Well tried as hard as I could to see flakes this morning but alas only managed virga. Its beyond sad and embarrassing that winter sucks so much that it I have to resort to that. I guess the next sad excuse/fail for winter weather.... is there could be a little sleet at the start of precip thur evening due to dry low to mid levels before our exciting mid to upper 30s rain slams us.

Something to keep an eye on is maybe some light snow over north ga tonight..hrrr is showing some. (In fact up to an inch or more in the mountains over toward rome). Nav also has been consistent with a little. Despite the dry profiles and runs of everything else, still wouldn't surprise me to see some meso effects create a small area of flurries/showers into tomorrow morning. Not a huge chance but better than zero which is a lot considering how horrible this winter has been.

Picked up 3.5 inches of rain since sunday night. Quite a lot more than what I was expecting a few days ago.

1.80 so far....a bit less than west ga/sc. Top gust has been 31...glad those 40 plus gusts didnt happen. Losing power sucks...especially as a result of a cold rain storm.

Would be a hell of a blizzard/icestorm. On top of all the precip 3km nam is showing 40 to 50mph wind gusts over north ga sunday night. .with gusts a bit above that in the higher elevations and around Atlanta. I would think it's a bit overdone but it's been showing gusts as high as 55 near atlanta at its peak. Gfs has gusts into the 30s to near 40 mostly. Regardless, am a bit worried about power outages with the recent rains. Power was knocked off here the other day for an hour after the frontal passage.

Picked up 2.75 inches here...there was 4 to 5 inches though down toward Augusta.

The timing on the euro precip wise is better but compared to earlier runs It's not as cold nor dry over the mid Atlantic thursday..some 5 to 8 degrees warmer with temps/dps..which obviously means temps downstream arent as cold either. Quite a spread/variability this week among the models that is for sure.

Yep..wouldn't take much.

Although it is more for the Carolinas ...the worst case for most of ne ga would be something a little slower than the 06z run. For north ga the 06z gfs is actually probably too fast with a good bit of precip falling before temps are cold enough. Plus gfs showing intense precip rates which would cut down on accretion. Those ice amount maps are way too bullish for ga. Slow it down by 6 to 10 hours and it's a different story. Quite impressive caa on that run though thur...30 to 40 knot winds at 925 to 950mb over ga/sc and quite the temp drop over a few hours time.

I think even if the Friday/2nd wave scenario plays out is correct there is a decent chance of at least advisory level freezing rain for ga/the upstate. Temps/wetbulbs are low enough that freezing temps should hang on through a decent part of the day friday. Depth of subfreezing layer is enough to see a decent wetbulb effect so The warm up the fv3 and especially the euro show friday is probably too fast by several hours at least as usual....with Wetbulbs Friday am in the mid to upper 20s. Euro shows Greater than half inch amounts through noon friday over ne ga and more than 0.25 over the upstate when I believe temps should still be subfreezing. So respectable glazing even with its run imo.

Lol..just saw this ..hes really unbelievable. I cant believe he posted that based on one model run on an event more than a week out...seriously wtf? Hes a strange dude...will down play legit and promising storms in the near term but then do something like that. Him getting slapped down by fellow mets has been awesome though. As for next week...seem like there is potential if we can get the timing right...Not exactly earth shattering news i know but thats better than nothing.

12z euro......

Yep...been a while since we have seen such a promising look at the surface. It's a shame it's so far into fantasy land but it's pretty to look at meteorologically at least. Wonder what the odds of it even being close to what really happens are.

Even though the worst of the storms just missed here, still got hit pretty hard with 40 mph gusts and about 0.35 of rain in a few minutes time. Wasn't as strong as the other day but happening at night makes it seem worse. Considering the daytime heating being added to the mix as opposed to getting hit at 2 in the morning, would expect it could get quite breezy with some of these. I always worry about storms coming in from the north or northwest here since there is a lot of open space in that direction which allows the wind to get quite high.

Just got the power back on after getting blasted. Number of trees down or damaged around the area after easily 50 to 60 mph winds and white out conditions. Was a bit nerve racking for a while. Not surprisingly ffc didnt issue a warning when it damn well should have...meanwhile gsp was on the ball as usual and smartly issued a warning for elbert county. Picked up another inch of rain.

Just had a heavy downpour with only 30 to 35dbz....so these showers/storms are efficient rain producers. Nam and rap showing pws maybe as high as 2.15 over the next 48 hours. Considering what the radar looks like now with quite a bit of training already, one can easily see how flash flooding could quickly become a problem over north ga into western nc. Already 1 to 4 inches of rain with a lot of back building to the south/southwest in the atlanta/gainesvlle/athens region. Finally got a good storm/rain yesterday...around 2 inches in 30 minutes. The rain rates were very high so there was a lot of runoff which was something to see after being so bone dry for so long...but what was even more amazing about it was seeing how fast the ground soaked it up. Not sure i've ever seen so much water disappear so fast. So that will help for a little while.

Same here...was generally between 97 to 99 but never 100 so euro was a few degrees too warm....but certainly that was bad enough. Soooooo glad that hellish pattern finally has changed. Its bone dry here...indeed on the line of moderate drought....seems likely most get enough rain to change the course over the next few weeks...thankfully avoiding conditions getting worse. Hate to think what this summer would be like if we maintained that pattern.