Lookout

I'm in gatlinburg...light dusting so far (which has mostly melted except on hill tops) with just flurries currently. Mrx is Forecasting 4 to 6 (although last night mrx had 8 to 10).

Top gust was 41 but im a bit protected from South winds. Didn't lose power thankfully but over a million out of power in ga at its peak was impressive. Winds are almost as gusty now as this morning. Gusting several times to 35/36. Jackson County Airport gust to 48mph last observation. In fact outages have gone back up in ga the past few hours. So not out of the woods.

Pretty wild to see ts warnings so far inland with a gulf hurricane.....making landfall in LA no less . This is really a unique event given its hyper forward speed...and Winds just off the surface are impressive on models..especially wrf/hmon. Going to be really interesting to see how the still strong circulation interacts with the high topography over north ga and the upstate. The ridge tops from your area down to Rome could see some really high winds. Although some of the stronger winds aloft move overhead here, the lack of convection probably keeps most of the gusts in check here. In fact, Looks like it could be a real screwjob rain wise where im at. Zeta almost a cat 3.....110 at 4pm advisory with radar out of New Orleans showing 135mph winds and recon has 113 knot. LA just can't catch a break.

45 this morning here. Considering how hot we normally are this time of year you cant ask for much more.

4.35 here but I'm a bit disappointed. By yesterday I knew the totals would likely be less than 6 to 8 with models being a bit faster, further south, and showing more like 4 to 6 but given my location in relation to the center, I thought i still had a decent shot of 6 or 7. But heaviest stayed to the south..and even to the west..where they didnt get persistent little breaks in the heavier rain like here last night. Indeed 5 to 6 inch amounts are not that far away.. Good job by ffc with their forecast imo...likewise with gsp. Can't say the same for the gfs...it was consistently too far northwest with the axis of heaviest precip and totally missed the very heavy amounts across Central ga. Euro was too slow and wet and uk too far south with the rest doing OK in general. Glad to have gotten this rain as its been drier here than most areas nearby for the last few months.

12z euro showing a bullseye of around 14 inches here which is probably overdone....but 6 to 8 seems reasonable.

Could use some rain here...this heat has quickly dried everything out. Got to 100 yesterday before cumulus developed. Athens and Macon got to 102. Been more clouds today so shouldn't be quite that bad today.

Thankful for the relatively low dps the past few days.. especially when when compared to southeast la the past few days...where temps have been in the mid to upper 90s and dps in the low to mid 80s. HI values are nasty, into the 120s. Currently there are several stations in the 120s...including a couple as high as 126 and 127. One of those stations yesterday had a HI of around 131. NO airport had a hi of 121 a little bit ago. Truly ridiculous.

Wow..low was 52 this morning...athens tied their record low of 53. Pretty wild for June 17th....going to make the mid 90s this weekend feel even worse though.

Impressive. Some good training going on in the upstate with no signs of letting up. Radar estimates over 10 inches now showing up. Got around 3 inches here...was getting a little dry so glad to get it.

Got Another inch of rain here in the past 24 hours. I knew this winter had been wet but good grief. Athens had its wettest ever dec-feb..almost 25 inches! Athens got 11 inches in feb alone. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSAtlanta/status/1234491501293555712/photo/1

Yeah it's hard to get a lot when you start off in the low to mid 40s and daytime too boot. If it had started at night, it probably would have been a different story. The lack of low dewpoints hurt too. I would imagine there aren't too many examples of big snows where temps start in the low to mid 40s with dewpoints only in the 30s upon arrival of precip in ga and sc. Still there should be some accumulations before it's over. Getting any snow at all given how warm this winter has been should be considered a big victory.

It's got to be close in the upstate. this station near paris mountain is only 800 feet or so higher than greenville and it's 31. Name:ETV Greenville Valid:20 Feb 2:20 PM EST Temp:31 °F0 °C Dew Point:30 °F-1 °C Relh:96 % Wind Speed:16 mph14 kts Wind Dir:ENE75° Gust:22 mph19 kts Wind Chill:20 °F Altimeter:30.08 in

I've seen some weird stuff happen up there when you would think it would be a slam dunk. I'm assuming it's because of the low level warmth sort of being blocked from being scoured out even with a ne flow because of the mountains and the cooling is purely precip driven. Indeed you can see the stubborn low level warmth on the 925 to 975mb levels..which are actually colder to the south and east as the day goes on. A lot just plain heavy rain here currently. I would expect i might get some to mix in by 4pm as the low levels cool even more with ne flow with an ok chance of a full turnover by 0z before ending...unless that band in sc is able to hold on longer and/or this band of heavy precip cools that mid level warm nose a little faster than expected. Don't expect any accumulation since it won't last long even if it does happen but i hope i at least see a little fall.

just saw on channel 5 some flakes mixing in with the rain there. not too surprising given the amount of bright banding. No flakes here even though i'm under it....but the drops have that "slop" sound to them. I do wonder if there could be a brief surprise changeover or good mixing north of atlanta up near gainesville. Some 50 dbz showing up on composite.

the new hrrr is now showing that band of snow now across the southern upstate/midlands. I find this rather impressive given it's surface warm bias which skews against it's snow forecasts. Only reason this might work out is flow in the mid levels is out of the northeast instead of north or northwest..in which case there would be no chance at all.

hrrr is busting temp wise here...as expected. 37 degree temps extend back to atlanta where all night the hrrr had temps of 42 to 44 degrees right now. Using hrrr where precip is falling...especially with any respectable dewpoint depressions...is a waste of time. As for the rdu area, i wouldn't worry too much about those 40s. There is more than enough cold/dry air just off the surface to allow a fast temp drop once the steady precip arrives. wetbulb zero heights as low as 985mb on the 12z nam is easily low enough to produce a rapid temp drop. Yep...The biggest concern i have for the upstate/western nc is just overall lack of precip...especially into nc. Virtually every model is showing a decrease in the amounts there..generally less than a half inch...even for the upstate and obviously some of that is going to be needed to cool the surface. One thing i'm going to be watching out for though is the southern upstate later this afternoon/evening. wrf suite and nam/3km are all paining a swath of snow from greenwood northeast..as an area of precip lingers behind long enough to catch up to the caa aloft. Would be ironic to say the least if they somehow manage to do better than the upstate.

Yeah not the best layout and I dont think they have ever updated that page. Anywho, thur going to suck around here...thinking much of north ga/upstate will end up with it being 33 to 35 because of how cold the low levels will be.

Weather nerds https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ Also...only has rap, nam, and gfs but old favorite is twister...it shows more levels on the text soundings....sure wish more sites had detailed text soundings like they do. It sure helps seeing those ewls. Arl is ok but the annoying security stuff is...well annoying. http://www.twisterdata.com/

Yep..nam is super aggressive with that warm nose at 750 to 825mb.....would screw pretty much all of the upstate and even into nc/Charlotte for a good while.

Given how often systems this winter have been wetter than expected or at a bare minimal not drier than expected, I think I would lean toward the wetter ones if I was in nc. This idea that the euro is never wrong or is right the vast majority of the time is bizarre to me. I often wonder if the developers of it invented memory swipes too because it seems like people always forget that it's wrong quite a lot too. That being said, it might be right this time but I wouldn't favor it vs the weight of all the other guidance. I agree..not sure where this idea it wont be cold enough in nc is coming from.

I imagine snow would be more widespread than what the icon shows. It did poorly capturing the surface cooling from last weekend's snow. For example, Guaranteed there would be a faster changeover in the upstate than what its showing.

A bit of a frustrating run though as if not for a warm nose at 750 to 825mb it would be a lot more snow in north ga and the lower half of the upstate. Probably would be a zone of sleet but whether its able to actually accumulate is questionable. Maybe if there is decent lift and precip rates it could cause a changeover sooner than expected. Cant go without saying though, there is another multiple inch rain event preceding it for ga and sc. Just unreal how much precip we are getting.

If anyone needs a reminder about not throwing in the towel too early...look at today's rain across ga..been raining all morning here when Most of the models had very little or none at all here in the past 72 hours. Indeed go back and see how poorly the models handled today's rain over the past few days. Cold air supply might be lacking for some but i sure wouldn't get get too discouraged over precip amounts this early for Thursday. Feel like for those in nc stand a good chance...soundings show a cold profile with a really shallow surface warm layer on most guidance that probably would be overcome with decent precip. Upstate might see a changeover at some point but Think this is probably a classic case of the mountains screwing ga by blocking caa. Not buying the Canadian showing precip into friday.

That's what I kept thinking to myself last week....that It was really nice to finally have something to track. Was a lot of fun...if there was one negative, it was such a quick shot...hopefully this would last longer. I sure didnt expect to have something to track again so soon...just hope it doesnt shift away or disappear altogether. Even if it shifts north or south, I hope it's a good one so the south can blow out the mid Atlantic this year