Lookout

I'm in gatlinburg...light dusting so far (which has mostly melted except on hill tops) with just flurries currently. Mrx is Forecasting 4 to 6 (although last night mrx had 8 to 10).

Yeah it's hard to get a lot when you start off in the low to mid 40s and daytime too boot. If it had started at night, it probably would have been a different story. The lack of low dewpoints hurt too. I would imagine there aren't too many examples of big snows where temps start in the low to mid 40s with dewpoints only in the 30s upon arrival of precip in ga and sc. Still there should be some accumulations before it's over. Getting any snow at all given how warm this winter has been should be considered a big victory.

It's got to be close in the upstate. this station near paris mountain is only 800 feet or so higher than greenville and it's 31. Name:ETV Greenville Valid:20 Feb 2:20 PM EST Temp:31 °F0 °C Dew Point:30 °F-1 °C Relh:96 % Wind Speed:16 mph14 kts Wind Dir:ENE75° Gust:22 mph19 kts Wind Chill:20 °F Altimeter:30.08 in

I've seen some weird stuff happen up there when you would think it would be a slam dunk. I'm assuming it's because of the low level warmth sort of being blocked from being scoured out even with a ne flow because of the mountains and the cooling is purely precip driven. Indeed you can see the stubborn low level warmth on the 925 to 975mb levels..which are actually colder to the south and east as the day goes on. A lot just plain heavy rain here currently. I would expect i might get some to mix in by 4pm as the low levels cool even more with ne flow with an ok chance of a full turnover by 0z before ending...unless that band in sc is able to hold on longer and/or this band of heavy precip cools that mid level warm nose a little faster than expected. Don't expect any accumulation since it won't last long even if it does happen but i hope i at least see a little fall.

If anyone needs a reminder about not throwing in the towel too early...look at today's rain across ga..been raining all morning here when Most of the models had very little or none at all here in the past 72 hours. Indeed go back and see how poorly the models handled today's rain over the past few days. Cold air supply might be lacking for some but i sure wouldn't get get too discouraged over precip amounts this early for Thursday. Feel like for those in nc stand a good chance...soundings show a cold profile with a really shallow surface warm layer on most guidance that probably would be overcome with decent precip. Upstate might see a changeover at some point but Think this is probably a classic case of the mountains screwing ga by blocking caa. Not buying the Canadian showing precip into friday.

That's what I kept thinking to myself last week....that It was really nice to finally have something to track. Was a lot of fun...if there was one negative, it was such a quick shot...hopefully this would last longer. I sure didnt expect to have something to track again so soon...just hope it doesnt shift away or disappear altogether. Even if it shifts north or south, I hope it's a good one so the south can blow out the mid Atlantic this year

Yep, if you buy the soundings on the gfs it still looks very similar to Saturday's snow...if not even a touch colder where I'm at...similar to the earlier euro runs. Wish it wasn't still 6 days out and I could cash out now with the 18z gfs...0.70 to 1.00 liquid here..looks like all snow...save for maybe a little rain to start. It's hard not to be hopeful and encouraged but knowing how wrong the gfs normally is at this range..it worries me just as much.

Yep, only a very shallow warm layer near the surface which would easily be overcome taking it at face value. It actually is a few degrees colder at 925mb to the surface than Saturday's system. Euro showing 0.50 to 0.75 liquid so those snow total maps are a bit underdone...probably closer to 4 to 6.

Just for fun given the time range but Soundings are fine from what I see. Its surface temps are obviously too warm given the snowfall. Keep in mind the euro busted pretty bad with the weekend snow...ended up being 5 to 8 degrees too warm at the surface.

If I recall correctly they didnt show any of the weekend snow either until shortly before. We have a long ways to go but hopefully it works out. Have to believe this will be most folks last chance. Considering how rare it is for the gfs to even be close to right on anything at this range, much less snow chances this is probably true.

It's been Pretty ridiculous. Already have 0.30 with this first band...and based on upstream totals more than inch seems likely tonight. Which isnt huge news if not for the fact that most of the guidance was further north. Hrrr had my location getting less than 0.10 tonight. Not a good few days for the hrrr.

You are in a good spot...probably one of the best outside the mountains as it seems the only question with your location is how much precip falls...as temps at the surface and aloft are plenty cold. Given the early start time where you are you should be at or below freezing for a good portion if it. I would think 1 to 2 inches is a good bet. If anyone outside the mountains do well it will be cumming, Gainesville, dawsonville, etc.

Yep..its weird honestly how that is usually the case. Models insist most of it is just north of here but I think its mostly snow as far south as here per soundings...assuming it doesnt arrive too late where surface temps are a problem. Hrrr as usual is too warm at the surface if there is as much precip as advertised. . Regardless it's close enough to drive too regardless. High resolution models showing some pretty decent returns on composite imagery some decent rates arent out of the question. Other than the mountains atlanta to Gainesville could be the winner as it arrives early enough for temps to be near freezing. Could just the nam naming us but the 12z 12 and 3km run showing up to 0.30 liquid now.

Looks like some sleet and even snow fell for a brief period at the start in parts of west ga with the heaviest stuff...from around Carrollton to the north. As expected though it's been brief with a quick changeover to rain. The way this year is going they should consider themselves lucky.

Well tried as hard as I could to see flakes this morning but alas only managed virga. Its beyond sad and embarrassing that winter sucks so much that it I have to resort to that. I guess the next sad excuse/fail for winter weather.... is there could be a little sleet at the start of precip thur evening due to dry low to mid levels before our exciting mid to upper 30s rain slams us.

Something to keep an eye on is maybe some light snow over north ga tonight..hrrr is showing some. (In fact up to an inch or more in the mountains over toward rome). Nav also has been consistent with a little. Despite the dry profiles and runs of everything else, still wouldn't surprise me to see some meso effects create a small area of flurries/showers into tomorrow morning. Not a huge chance but better than zero which is a lot considering how horrible this winter has been.

Even though the worst of the storms just missed here, still got hit pretty hard with 40 mph gusts and about 0.35 of rain in a few minutes time. Wasn't as strong as the other day but happening at night makes it seem worse. Considering the daytime heating being added to the mix as opposed to getting hit at 2 in the morning, would expect it could get quite breezy with some of these. I always worry about storms coming in from the north or northwest here since there is a lot of open space in that direction which allows the wind to get quite high.

Just got the power back on after getting blasted. Number of trees down or damaged around the area after easily 50 to 60 mph winds and white out conditions. Was a bit nerve racking for a while. Not surprisingly ffc didnt issue a warning when it damn well should have...meanwhile gsp was on the ball as usual and smartly issued a warning for elbert county. Picked up another inch of rain.

As a fan of cosmology/astronomy since I was a kid, this is about as cool as it gets. First pic of a black hole.

Was going to post this,...it's absolutely crazy to see snow down to 6200 feet there.

Fascinating. Never ceases to amaze me how the topography effects things around there/here. Sure makes it difficult to get a grasp on what to expect. I've often thought how nice it must be to be in the ohio valley or plains where it's a lot more straight forward. new hrrr is looking really promising, especially for south carollna where they got nothing. a bit colder and dropping a couple of tenths liquid With temps at 32/33.

Yeah that sucks. How do you normally do when wedges break down? Do you warm up faster or slower than gsp/anderson? Temp here has actually dropped back to 34 after getting to 35. Still have a 10mph or so ne wind with heavy mist/drizzle. Hard to see me rising 4 or 5 degrees overnight.

Good post. I have No idea why anyone even looks at snow accumulation maps unless temps start below freezing and you know for sure everything will stick. Over ne ga, the hrrr showed too much sleet. It showed gainesvlle getting 6 hours of it but in reality they only got a little bit during the heavier rates. And it showed sleet making down to here and unless there was a little in the heavier showers, i never saw any. It was pretty obvious it was in error as it showed the max temp above ground getting to near 40 at the time it was showing it and the warm layer was deep. The fv3 over did the snow a bit a little bit but otherwise did an ok job as snow got down to cornelia and surrounding areas for an hour or two. Nam on the other hand failed to show it. Nam was too warm yesterday but in the end was about right as far as the lowest temps went. FV3 was actually a degree or two TOO cold. lol...What makes it worse is the best chance is further to the south AND the rich will get richer as those who got a lot today will get even more. So that means there could be a zone that has been exceptionally screwed and tortured where they watched areas to the north get snow last night/this morning and then watch areas to the south get some tonight/tomorrow morning. In my case, I fear i'm going to be in a situation where it's snowing a couple of counties over while it's dry here. I'd be happy just seeing a little bit falling through the air but will be lucky to even get that.

It looks like it. Across the board the models are colder from 925mb to the surface there. Essentially the models push the cold pool with the wedge to the south. Here is the nam's 925mb showing just that. Also here is the nam's 2 meter temps and as you can see, it has really warm temps over the ne corner/nw upstate. GFS is a few degrees colder and the hrrr is showing temps in the 32 to 34 range. although the gfs/hrrr are colder at the surface, they all show warming above it similar to below. That said, If precip develops and it's sort of widespread, i wonder if that would make it a bit colder than they are showing. the 18z nam was wetter than the 12z and it was a bit colder as a result at 925mb at least. A bit unusual but they have consistently showed this.

Although there is some question about depth of the moisture, Models stubbornly warm the lowest levels over north ga/upstate overnight which is why some of that is shown as rain. despite northeasterly flow, which is a bit baffling to be honest. That said, some of the recent runs are a touch colder. Nam especially seems bizarre, showing temps rising into the upper 30s and even near 40 over the northwest upstate. There could be some weak downslope over far ne ga/nw upstate late but otherwise flow is remains NNE to NE throughout the low levels and if this happens it will surely be a first. I can't recall a single time where the temp starts above freezing already and rises several more degrees during the night with NE winds/flow so i'm curious how this shakes out. HRRR is much colder, especially in the upstate, showing temps staying right where they are now which seems like a no brainer. Models were pretty damn close with temps in the end here...got only to 32.7 here, which is a degree warmer than i thought it would get. So I can't totally discount it. Hopefully Places that were screwed and missed out will get a little something out of it. I would expect i would see some here too but the hrrr is dangerously close to showing most of the precip missing here. naturally.