Lookout

I'm willing to bet a dollar that the gfs is full of **** for gsp/upstate. canadian is quite a bit colder than previous runs. a whopping 8 degrees colder in fact here.

i pretty much had the exact same thought in my head...the differences at 925mb for example between it and the nam are something over the carolinas. At hour 78 , nam has northerly flow and 925mb temps 5c colder while the gfs has southwesterly flow at 925mb over the carolinas. Nam is about 4mb higher with surface pressures over the mid atlantic than the gfs at 84 hours.

yes it's the 84 hour nam but fwiw, looks like precip would start as snow or snow/sleet/rain mix by the time it gets to the savannah river sat morning. Nam has temps into the mid to upper 30s, dewpoints in the upper 20s..with even colder/drier air and ne flow off the surface. Nam sure looks a lot more promising than the gfs still.

I know everyone is focused on snow but even the fv3 has surface temps near or below freezing for a lot of the storm in the northern upstate. And that is not taking into consideration it's warm bias with cad. I think the icing potential in the upstate is quite high.

That is the general rule of thumb, especially with respectable dewpoint depressions. Which again is the one ingredient that's been missing with this system south of nc on the models. Even so, it's almost a given that the models will be at least 1 to 3 degrees too warm even without much dry air to work with. Sometimes it's more though, like the last cad we had where models across the board were showing temps bottoming out in ne ga from 38 in the far north to as high as 40 and 41 here right up until it happened....in reality the temps dropped as low as 33/34 at cornelia and gainesville and 36 here. Much of that was thanks to some colder air just off the surface but it was with dewpoint depressions of just a few degrees. Regardless, it was quite a miss for the models. I've been watching this...and it would have ramifications obviously. I'ts not just at the surface though. the new 12z nam is much colder/drier in the low levels in general. Huge differences at 925mb between the nam and gfs over the carolinas. It's the long range nam so we should throw in the usual disclaimers but this is a big and notable difference and if right, the gfs surface temps are likely quite off in cad areas. Note the nam has northerly/northeasterly flow being established quite a bit sooner than the gfs over the carolinas/ga. Up to 7c difference over eastern sc. Also, Interesting to note gfs has winds quite high in the boundary layer...with surface winds up to 15 to 20 knots and winds up to 925mb winds increasing to 35 to 40 knots across ne ga/upstate by late saturday afternoon which is pretty impressive. Given the isobars, it's not surprising. One would think caa would be rather strong. We will see if the nam is on to something. nam first/gfs second

yep, if there was , this one would be a no brainer for big ice at least where im at but because there isnt im not too bullish on much yet.

It's frustrating that it keeps hanging on to the further north track of the low...i want to see it's profiles with the further south low track. As usual a lot of conflicting signs...the gfs has a decent low track but it's lack of high pressure over the mid atlantic results in little in the way of cad/caa. The canadian has a much better high but terrible low track and the end result is the same. Short of this low getting totally squashed, it seems like nc is likely to get something rather significant.....whether it's snow or ice. The same can't be said though for ne ga/upstate...especially ne ga. Biggest concern for areas south of nc is high pressure strength/not building in time and lack of any low dewpoints which means CAA will have to do the trick.....which we all know doesn't often work out. Really want to see that high building into the mid atlantic faster....certainly a lot more than the gfs.

yeah this run is awfully sleety looking for a lot of folks...including north ga...850s only marginally above freezing with a deep subfreezing layer....925s are very cold down to around -6c. I'll take that over 2 inches of freezing rain for sure. Freezing line gets into central ga but fortunately a lot of the heaviest precip is over by the time it does so freezing rain accumulations look marginal there...though i suspect we will see a band of fairly significant freezing rain still somewhere. Sc looks to do much better with snow. Interesting it also has the upper level system hanging around for a while too providing light snows afterwards. Rather impressively the fv3 doesn't have most areas getting much above freezing again until tuesday.

I'm wondering if convective feedback isn't an issue earlier on in texas causing the low to be too far north there initially. Euro has the heavy convection quite a bit further south near the tx coast. Gfs also seems to travel south of due east from there, which would be unusual. I think what this shows is that there is very little margin for error south of nc with any adjustments to the north likely resulting in ice or rain.

goes to show you how cool it's been that this feels so warm... it seems like only a few weeks ago, this would have felt like winter. picked up 2.15 of rain with the last system.

Although the nw trend is the norm, it can go the other way too. I can't recall if it was last year or the year before where there was good agreement on a major storm with lots of precip showing up for a few days around this range and in the end it got crushed and i don't think we even got a sprinkle.

Yeah, it's pretty crazy. Indeed, considering how far off this is, there is some remarkably good agreement among all the modeling. Considering that, Although the usual precautions should always apply given how far off it is, it's hard not to be optimistic of something significant..whether it's snow or ice. Still though, it's not unusual for a generally agreed upon modeled major storm turn to nothing even with good agreement at this range...but we are in a better than usual spot i would think.

I was getting a bit worried about power outages last night because of how saturated the ground is and how strong the winds were getting after 11pm. I had a peak gust of 32 but it was gusting 25 to 30 for several hours. Looks like pretty much everyone in the 85 corridor did... Noticed greenville had a top gust to 40mph...which is pretty impressive... with several others in the mid 30s in ne ga. picked up 1.75 with this one... Just missed a lot heavier amounts that feel with a narrow line of heavy rain that put down 3 to 4 inches just to the east. Got 4.22 altogether this week.

i was amazed yesterday at how much of the country was under cloud cover. I admit i maybe have missed a few times but I had a hard time remembering such an expansive cloud deck. Regardless, it was impressive in my eyes.

I've said this to myself at least 3 or 4 times already too lol. Interesting the nam and to a lesser extent the canadian shows a pocket of very dry air from 925mb to 975mb in the upstate (-20 to 30c) which should allow for some cooling in the favored core areas.....in other words don't be surprised if you see some freezing rain for a couple of hours thursday morning. Indeed it does show subfreezing temps for a few hours in favored higher elevations in ne ga. Even gets lower elevations down to here to 33 by 15z thur. Fwiw, the gfs shows no such dry pocket. ..in which case it will just be a cold rain everywhere. Even If it exists, Given marginal temps and the huge warm nose aloft i wouldn't expect it to amount to much more than a trace but it's got to be looked at as being Pretty impressive to get freezing rain in nc at minimal and such strong damming so early in the year. Already over an inch today with models showing 5 to 6 inches here by the time we are through.

Sounds like they went to the glenn burns school of crappy forecasting. If they claim today/tomorrow that either "no models predicted this" or that they actually accurately forecasted it, then you know for sure they are all graduates.

damage sounds quite extensive...i'm guessing a lot of people are going to be without power for quite a while. up to 578,572 (as of 645)

up to 450,000 now. ...up 50,000 just in the past half hour or so.

Sounds pretty bad. Someone yesterday was asking what the big deal was over 40 to 55mph winds....well considering 400,000 are without power in north carolina so far and these winds have not reached rdu and points eastward yet, i think says it all.

62mph gust at mathews https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=F2338&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

I'd be surprised too...but as others have noted, even a conservative 10 to 20% reduction is still significant. Almost on cue, winds are increasing also in rabun county...clayton is sustained at 24g37 and tallulah is gusting to 40. Right where and when the hrrr shows it starting. zirconia now 23 g to 44. travelers rest up to 35.

HRRR gets the winds going first within the next hour and indeed we are seeing 40mph gusts now at the nc/sc border. zirconia had a 42mph gust a few minutes ago https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=D1971&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325

it seems Michael isn't the only disaster today. dude, get real. you are lucky you aren't getting a time out but if you keep up this nonsense you will.

NHC has it just below hurricane force just southeast of macon now...hope the poster who asked what to expect a while back made preparations to be without power for a while.

Michael will enter georgia as a cat 3 hurricane....125mph.... absolutely incredible.