Lookout

I am absolutely amazed at how quick the grass has died here. It looks like it's been dry all summer, which of course it hasn't..at all. last few runs of the hwrf would mean some impressive totals with tremendous upslope flow into the mountains and it would likely continue even as the storm moves into tn.

I would be too quite honestly as storms moving northwest through ga are incredibly rare and to have two storms in back to back years like that would be incredible. There have only been a couple ever recorded. But even if it makes landfall in sc and tracks west, it would be amazing. In fact, i can only find one which made landfall in nc and the remnant low ended up in north ga way back in 1913 but it was a cat one and went well inland before getting here.. ( https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/). So i'm really curious what it would be like if it makes landfall say near charleston and tracks west from there. Even with that track, the mountains would help compress the wind field and winds across the western carolinas and north ga could be quite high. Of course if it goes inland in nc before the stall and southwest/west turn we wouldn't have to worry too much about winds. All i'm hoping for is some rain, it's actually gotten quite dry here. Do not want to go through all those hours of sustained winds, knocked down trees, and power outages. I got incredibly lucky i didn't lose power with irma and i sort of doubt i would be that lucky again if something similar happened.

yeah not good...the euro takes the core of whats left of the strongest winds right across here. Irma was such a unique case that it's hard to believe that we could do it again just one year later. Unfortunately a lot of people lost power for days on end and that was just a tropical depression/weak tropical storm by the time it got to the al/ga border. hopefully it will only be a minimal hurricane at landfall and it wont' be as bad.

then heads to atlanta. pretty wild to say the least. Who would have guessed georgia as a possible ultimate landfall a few days ago. Worried about widespread power outages and tree damage again in georgia as there Could be some funneling effect between the circulation center and the mountains similar to irma (helped by high pressure over new england too) with this type of track. Unlike irma though, the circulation will be much stronger as it crosses georgia. I lost 5 oaks because of irma.

I would think even in a weaker state, a track like that would pile up the water quite a bit as winds and the coast would work together to funnel/push the water up. Pretty astonishing change of events though given the incredible model agreement yesterday showing it heading into nc. Would be pretty wild to say the least to see a southwest moving hurricane along the southeast coast.

it will change over soon...just be thankful it's not daytime... I've been there though...a number of years ago, there was a bubble of warm air only over a 2 or 3 county wide area...with snow everywhere else. Warm bubble extended up to 850mb (which is just absurd) with zero chance of it eroding. Stayed heavy rain and 37/38 the entire time. Talk about being pissed off.

lol....i've always loved widre's complaining and pessimism. He's always cracked me up.

pretty horrible post. there is a real possibility areas further inland from the immediate coast see something noteworthy and attacking those who could be impacted is what is pathetic.

I sure am glad I saw that big snow a few weeks ago too. Also got to see about an hour and a half of snow/sleet Wednesday in gainesville...(didn't plan on being here but had to due to an emergency ) because Seeing the models showing these pretty big systems vanish with all this cold has been very frustrating but without that snow I'd be extra pissed off right now lol.

last observation was at 7:53...rain had just started there but temp is already 37...and it's snowing in dawson caounty. I imagine it will changeover within the next few minutes.

I'm heading to gainesville in a little bit but the latest nam is unbelievably close to all snow even here...at least it suggests a sloppy mix of rain/sleet/snow..or even all snow if it's heavy enough...much of the day. Never ceases to amaze me how often it comes down to not just one degree here every time. Probably a good sign for much of NE Ga/upstate if i'm this close way down here. valid at 18z this afternoon NAM Text Sounding | 18 UTC Fri 08 Dec 2017 | Latitude: 34.0374 | Longitude: -82.9672 PRES HGHT TEMP DWPT RELH MIXR DRCT SKNT TWTB TVRT THTA THTE THTV 995.5 172 1.3 0.7 95 4.1 4 6 1.1 2.0 274.8 286.1 275.5 975.0 339 0.2 -0.1 98 3.9 20 15 0.1 0.8 275.3 286.2 276.0 950.0 547 0.1 -0.2 98 4.0 38 25 -0.0 0.7 277.2 288.3 277.9 925.0 761 0.2 -0.1 98 4.1 49 17 0.1 0.8 279.5 291.0 280.2 900.0 981 0.1 -0.2 98 4.2 49 11 -0.0 0.8 281.6 293.5 282.3 875.0 1206 -0.2 -0.5 98 4.2 57 8 -0.3 0.5 283.6 295.7 284.3 850.0 1438 -0.2 -0.6 97 4.3 66 5 -0.4 0.5 285.9 298.4 286.7 825.0 1678 0.3 -0.2 96 4.6 242 6 0.1 1.1 288.9 302.2 289.7 800.0 1925 0.1 -0.2 98 4.7 238 16 -0.0 0.9 291.2 305.2 292.1 775.0 2178 -1.7 -2.1 97 4.2 259 14 -1.9 -1.0 291.9 304.5 292.7 750.0 2439 -2.3 -2.7 97 4.2 241 10 -2.5 -1.6 294.0 306.6 294.8 725.0 2709 -0.7 -0.9 98 5.0 208 29 -0.8 0.2 298.7 313.7 299.6 700.0 2990 0.0 -0.3 98 5.4 209 46 -0.1 0.9 302.5 319.0 303.4 675.0 3282 -0.1 -0.4 98 5.5 212 60 -0.3 0.8 305.5 322.6 306.5 650.0 3585 -0.8 -1.1 98 5.5 215 70 -0.9 0.1 308.0 325.1 309.0 625.0 3898 -1.9 -2.2 98 5.3 215 75 -2.0 -1.0 310.2 326.8

lol... Well since it's been obvious it's a lost cause here I was thinking about heading to gainesville..but after this afternoons runs, it's probably a given now. gfs is a really nice long duration event for the northwestern half of the state. It's truly absurd how the gfs looks now when you compare it to run after run of the last several days. Gainesville went from 0.00 of precip on last NIGHT"S 0z run to around 1.5 inches on this run. It's now quite a bit wetter than even the notoriously wet nam...which shows around an inch. ridiculous. and the jma i think.

fortunately from the start i had really low goals and was going to be happy if i just saw any flakes at all. Which is a good thing because that seems to be close to the best case scenerio where i'm at. If i had to guess now, it will be rain or sleet to start (air is really dry so would think it starts as rain/sleet.) followed by maybe a few hours of wet ...non sticking snow...before going back to rain...maybe ending as a little more non sticking snow if i'm lucky. Unless that warm nose actually is not as strong as advertised (which we all know it's more likely i win the lottery), i'm not expecting any accumulations where i'm at. I think along and north of 85 in the upstate will eventually do ok...but only if the gfs is wrong with low level temps. The gfs is a lot warmer at 925mb to the surface over the upstate...but it seems to be alone in that regard.

btw..the early changeover around atlanta is supported by the hrrr too

yep...This is a real tough one for areas south of 85 in ne ga and the upstate because of this. I was really becoming pessimistic about snow chances where i'm at because of the warming trend by both models....but the hrrr and rap are giving me some hope. Both models are showing a strong push of heavy precip in a banding type feature and the rap is showing some optimistic temp response. There is enough dry air aloft that there should be a pretty good temp response just off the surface...indeed the rap is showing rapid cooling of 925mb temps. If that low level warm layer can be overcome early here/upper savannah river valley/upstate it would at least remove one headache i think from the equation for the USRV...and maybe mean at least seeing some snow before changing to rain if that warm nose is as advertised. I still think 1 to 3 is the most likely accumulation outside the screwzone here but I feel like there is at least a moderate chance than more than just a couple of inches is at least possible for the atlanta metro, carrolton, lagrange, and up toward or just west of gainesville. Despite the warm crap here, it's looking cold enough at all levels...including actually getting to freezing..or even slightly below imo west and southwest of atlanta, that they cold end up doing quite well. Rap is suggesting a changeover to snow as early as 1 to 4am west and south of atlanta...and temps already at freezing. If it does....there is a lot of precip upstream to come. Rap even suggests a changeover is possible here as early as 12z. Rap is a good 5 or 6 degreescolder at the surface than the gfs here at 12z friday too.

This is one of those cases where there could be a narrow band that over performs quite a bit vs most folks. Right now I'm thinking a general 1 to 3 inches very slushy inches is the most likely outcome for most folks.. especially around lagrange, carrolton, newnan, through atlanta and up to maybe gainesville...thanks in part to surface temps possibly getting to and even below freezing..which higher resolution models have been showing...which makes a big difference compared to snow and 33/34.

again, i'm not terribly worried... I don't think the models are accurately showing surface temps based on the full soundings. There could be some delay, maybe an hour or two vs elsewhere but it shouldn't matter a lot if there is sustained precip and decent rates. This run is a good 5 degrees colder than the previous runs here. Our biggest concern should be total precip amounts/rates not being heavy enough to dynamically/evap cool the column or any warm nose centered around 800mb..which the nam shows making it just to athens to elberton or so for a brief time before retreating back south. Good run for atlanta metro...they don't seem to have to worry about any of that based on most of the modeling....unless it ends up like the uk where they would end up mostly rain and snow would be mostly confined to west and north of the city.

i'd say it's a little better

not surprising it would be warmer...looks like it's well north of every other model with the surface low.

12z icon says the 85 corridor is going to be white gfs sure seems out there by itself right now.

Most of the time I buy it but in this case i don't...for a couple of reasons. One the cold/dry air is actually already in place...where as normally in a setup like this... we are screwed when we are having to wait on caa/dry air advection as precip arrives. Fact is, The airmass here is not much different than everywhere else thursday night at the surface, near surface, or aloft but for whatever reason the canadian is not wanting to cool the surface temps just one or two more degrees. Based on full soundings/wetbulb zero heights.....i think this is in error. In most of the cases where that warm bubble really screws this area is when it extends up to 925mb....but nam and gfs, nor even the canadian shows that. Another problem would be if precip was lighter here for some reason or another but that doesn't seem to be a problem either. The biggest concern i have at the moment is two fold...one precip is actually light like the gfs...and 2nd is a warm nose aloft...from 700mb to 850mb..sneaking in during the day friday possibly resulting in sleet for a time. The nam is hinting at this. However, i don't think This will be a problem north and west of athens

12z rgem is coming in wetter.

lol...what a nam job. Some areas with more than 24 hours of snow fall

Good post. Regardless of what happens, it being this early in the year means this is all just a bonus...regardless of outcome. I never expect to see any snow this early in the year so even if there is no accumulation, just seeing flakes will be a bonus. I get not being bullish but last night was pretty embarrassing. David and glen mother f'n burns both didn't even mention a remote possibility of a flake when i tortured myself watching him at 6:30. If they think the public can't handle them even saying there is a 20 or 30% chance of flurries or a mix a few days out....which at this stage is more than a reasonable forecast then that is an incredibly sad testament in a number of ways. At any rate, i think it should be pointed out that the nam right now is doing a really piss poor job of the current precip shield. Now mind you, the northern edge is likely not reaching the ground but comparing what's going on now with the the 0z and 06z runs....man it's pretty bad. Indeed, many of the model look too dry. Of course It doesn't necessarily mean there will be a ton more precip friday/friday night but it's something to keep in mind and the models could have trouble right up until the "main event". On the flip side, RH profiles and Nam's composite imagery suggest there will be a lot of virga the next few days which might make things look a lot more impressive than they are.