Lookout

Good post. Regardless of what happens, it being this early in the year means this is all just a bonus...regardless of outcome. I never expect to see any snow this early in the year so even if there is no accumulation, just seeing flakes will be a bonus. I get not being bullish but last night was pretty embarrassing. David and glen mother f'n burns both didn't even mention a remote possibility of a flake when i tortured myself watching him at 6:30. If they think the public can't handle them even saying there is a 20 or 30% chance of flurries or a mix a few days out....which at this stage is more than a reasonable forecast then that is an incredibly sad testament in a number of ways. At any rate, i think it should be pointed out that the nam right now is doing a really piss poor job of the current precip shield. Now mind you, the northern edge is likely not reaching the ground but comparing what's going on now with the the 0z and 06z runs....man it's pretty bad. Indeed, many of the model look too dry. Of course It doesn't necessarily mean there will be a ton more precip friday/friday night but it's something to keep in mind and the models could have trouble right up until the "main event". On the flip side, RH profiles and Nam's composite imagery suggest there will be a lot of virga the next few days which might make things look a lot more impressive than they are.

18z run of the cmc seems pretty bullish. Still showing that aggravating near surface warm bubble around here.. but overall..nw of the 12z run Total precip amounts between 06z friday and 06z saturday....

Many more shifts like this 12z euro run vs the 0z run and this event will be quite s bit different than currently advertised. I agree...i didn't see anything wrong with it either....so let's end it here.

Everything seems to hedge on if there is enough precip to overcome the warm surface layer. Here is the 12z euro valid 12z friday. note the heavy amounts and the much colder temps along that stripe across central ga/sc.

i think you need to ease back on the sarcasm and everything a little. This run of the euro was a good step in the right direction for many...it has quite a bit more precipitation further inland than the prior run and temps aloft look similar to me. Euro is plenty cold aloft for northern half of georgia, sc/western nc.

Classic class of the USRA screwzone thanks to lack of surface cooling...which it shows on th e 12z run as well......although i think it's out to lunch on that. Canadian is sort of by itself with the degree of warmth/higher dewpoints in the lowest 50mb. Other models are showing there are no appreciable difference in airmass where i'm at and the upstate/west ga in the low levels ...so i would expect similar cooling here after onset as everywhere else. . So in a rare exception, i'm tossing that depiction of warmer surface temps here if there is that much precip. Still it is painful as hell seeing it and always a concern in such a setup. I'll be heading northwest if it actually becomes a problem. here is the 12z uk.

canadian doesn't look too bad....

yeah...the shift is pretty big compared to the 0z run....not there yet but it obviously trended in the right direction. that's the truth. A dusting or something would be nice but i'd be happy with just seeing flakes....although it surely would make my craving for a big snow jump by several orders of magnitude lol

Yeah it's painfully slow in fact. It's still worth the wait sometimes because it shows more levels than many sites...like 975, 925, 875, 825, 775mb, and 725mb on the text soundings. Makes it a lot easier to get a handle on those pesky warm noses. Yep, Looking at soundings, cold air will not be much of a problem even if there is a northwest trend....unless it's a HUGE northwest trend. Yes surface temps start off warm at the surface thursday afternoon/evening but the air aloft is cold...and wetbulb zero heights are very low...even well to the south. If precip starts overnight thursay/early friday...Combo of CAA/evap cooling will bring surface temps down pretty quickly if there is enough precip to do so...despite no near by cold/dry source at the surface to the northeast. The cold/dry air aloft is far enough sough that there is even some wiggle room for us in north ga/sc too if there is a big nw trend. Pretty strange to be honest to be in this situation because 99/100 times the lowest 50mb won't cool enough/low level cold is blocked by the mountains in my neck of the woods. But we are lucky here in that there is quite a delay between the initial front and the precip which allows a lot of time for drier and colder air aloft to move in. My biggest fear is there just won't be enough or much precip. However, given the history with these types of events, one would think that it ends up wetter and further northwest than first advertised. Even if amounts are light though, i would think that at least many of us will see some token flakes. This time of year and this type of setup that's a big win where i'm at.

an old one but good one....one of the first ones to offer point and click soundings. You are right though they are slower to update.

Let's be clear about the threat of where any warm noses are...those on the northwest fringe of this (hopeful) precip shield shouldn't have much, if any, threat of warm noses...back across north ga/western carolinas. Of course that could change if this shifts markedly northwest but right now it's quite cold aloft in these areas. If there is appreciable precip, temps should be plenty cold enough in the 85 corridor/western half of nc with very low freezing levels/wetbulb zero heights. But that's the main question, will there be enough precip to matter and take advantage of it.

Got down to -62 below at kanuti lake, ak and -61 below at bettles field. incredibly though...temperatures have risen some 50 degrees in the past 24 hours or so in some places....but to think they are STILL below zero. hard to believe. Date (AKST) Temp (F) Precip Accumulated (inches) 1 Hour Precip (inches) 3 Hour Precip (inches) 6 Hour Precip (inches) 24 Hour Precip (inches) Snow Depth (inches) Snowfall 3 Hour (inches) Snowfall 6 Hour (inches) Snowfall 24 Hour (inches) 24 Hr Max (F) 24 Hr Min (F) 20 Jan 9:00 am -34 1.50 0.10 59.00 48.00 49.00 49.00 20 Jan 8:00 am -38 1.40 10.00 0.00 0.00 20 Jan 7:00 am -40 1.40 10.00 0.00 0.00 20 Jan 6:00 am -42 1.50 11.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 20 Jan 5:00 am -44 1.50 10.00 0.00 0.00 20 Jan 4:00 am -46 1.50 10.00 0.00 0.00 20 Jan 3:00 am -47 1.50 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20 Jan 2:00 am -48 1.50 28.00 18.00 12.00 18.00 20 Jan 1:00 am -50 1.60 16.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 20 Jan 12:00 am -52 1.60 10.00 0.00 0.00 -52 -62 19 Jan 11:00 pm -53 1.70 10.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 10:00 pm -56 1.90 0.30 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 9:00 pm -59 2.00 0.20 0.40 10.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 8:00 pm -59 2.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.10 16.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 19 Jan 7:00 pm -59 1.90 0.10 0.30 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 6:00 pm -59 1.80 0.20 16.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 19 Jan 5:00 pm -57 1.80 0.20 0.10 0.10 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 4:00 pm -56 1.60 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 3:00 pm -54 1.60 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 2:00 pm -54 1.70 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 1:00 pm -56 1.90 0.10 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 12:00 pm -59 2.30 0.30 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 11:00 am -60 2.40 0.40 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 10:00 am -60 2.40 0.40 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 9:00 am -61 2.50 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.60 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 8:00 am -61 2.40 0.10 0.60 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 7:00 am -61 2.40 0.20 0.70 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 6:00 am -61 2.40 0.10 0.20 0.80 10.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 5:00 am -61 2.40 0.10 0.30 1.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 4:00 am -61 2.40 0.10 0.20 0.30 1.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 3:00 am -61 2.30 0.10 0.30 0.90 10.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 2:00 am -60 2.30 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.90 10.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 1:00 am -60 2.20 0.10 0.30 0.80 10.00 0.00 0.00 19 Jan 12:00 am -61 2.20 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.80 10.00 0.00 0.00 -49 -61 18 Jan 11:00 pm -60 2.10 0.20 0.40 0.70 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 10:00 pm -59 2.10 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.60 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 9:00 pm -59 2.00 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.50 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 8:00 pm -59 1.90 0.20 0.20 0.40 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 7:00 pm -59 1.90 0.10 0.20 0.10 0.40 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 6:00 pm -57 1.80 0.10 0.20 0.30 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 5:00 pm -56 1.70 0.20 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 4:00 pm -54 1.70 0.10 0.20 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 3:00 pm -50 1.60 0.10 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 2:00 pm -49 1.70 0.20 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 1:00 pm -53 1.80 0.10 0.30 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 12:00 pm -56 2.00 0.10 0.40 0.50 10.00 0.00 18 Jan 11:00 am -59 2.00 0.20 0.60 0.50 10.00 0.00 0.00 18 Jan 10:00 am -58 2.00 0.10 0.30 0.60 10.00 0.00

one place where winter is not over is alaska...some brutal cold up there the past few days..with actual surface temps into the -50s...with windchills into the -70s....with likely some areas into the -80s. (one station i looked at yesterday had a windchill of -79).

I've been following it for a year or two and Like every model it is hit or miss. I haven't noticed any consistent glaring errors though. It's got nothing at all to do with that. There is a good reason we hide comments/posts like that...and that is to keep the more in depth posts and info to from being buried so quickly...and to make the more informative posts easier to find. If we let all the "i love/hate this run", "how much for mby", or "it's not very encouraging" posts everyone would quickly get annoyed and those who take the time to make in depth and useful posts are almost wasting their time because their efforts are soon to be buried 10 pages back..and a lot of people don't have time to spend an hour skimming back through the thread to find a few good posts buried in a sea of much less useful stuff. . This is why we ask folks to keep that type of stuff in threads like this or the banter thread. Sure we miss some but we don't sit back and pick and choose who is allowed to post trivial stuff or not. You have to remember you don't see most of the things we end up hiding/deleting which includes posts from everyone.

what lame comments . One reason people don't post much about it is because you have to pay for it and sites like ours can get in trouble if people post too much of it is. Second, wtf does he think people are going to do?...."hey everyone...let's talk and hype up about the much more dry and boring euro! whoo hoo!". Fact is, there is a major forecasting model that is showing the potential for a significant winter storm...naturally people are going to talk and post about it. And i have yet to see anyone who has claimed they know exactly what it's going to do...in fact just the 180 degree opposite and people are simply discussing the possibilities and what needs to happen for it to be right....so nice strawman there fella.. Ugh...guess it's a good thing we have such huge geniuses like that around telling us such obvious things like.."no one knows what it's going to do".

lol..thanks. It'll be ok if the models hold on and we all get blasted but if it starts to trend in a negative direction...that's when it goes down hill quick. One of the things that i find most bothersome is just how exhausted i am by the time it gets here because it becomes so time consuming. If there is a legit threat, it's hard to do anything else but read the board, refresh models, compare them to previous runs and each other, etc...etc. Nothing else gets done or seems to matter....we are all sick lol.

and if it doesn't materialize it's not considered a huge bust and people don't throw fits. Same goes for heavy rain. I understand the tax payer money issue..where if a storm is forecast a lot is spent on roads, services, etc and you don't want to forecast a huge storm and end up wasting money but what situation would you rather have your viewers/public in...caught out in the middle of a big snow/ice event and bad roads because the forecast wasn't bullish enough... Or people being caught out in the rain or dry weather? Of course a lot of this is because the public blows up in anger if a storm isn't as bad as advertised yet isn't nearly as negative when they are caught out in it. It's all backwards honestly.

it's funny that these days local stations/mets can no longer totally ignore threats in the long range because of social media. Which already has caused one of the local mets in atlanta to acknowledging the possible threat a little while ago. But i had to laugh when she said knew people would be seeing all kinds of scary maps from "dubious sources"....like um..actual model progs? I like her, she's a good met and realize it's smart to lower expectations (joanne feldman) but that was a bit much.

Been following this bering sea storm for several days now. I follow alaska weather almost as much as i do here (sometimes more when it's slow) so I read their afds almost every day and I've never seen such strong wording from Fairbanks as I have with this storm (which isn't a surprise given how strong it is). I know this area is notorious for it's big storms and hurricane force gusts are not unusual but Fairbanks mentions in their discussion of winds gusting to 100mph. It amazes me a non tropical low can get to as low as 940 to 945mb with winds that high at the surface. The lowest pressure for an extratropical low btw is 927mb that was recorded at dutch harbor, Ak in 1977. I saw a 86mph wind gust was reported at nome on the news this morning. Also saw a story on the aspects of the storm surge and how the lack of sea ice is expected to allow the storm surge to be higher...as sea ice can diminish the potential storm surge somewhat. Amazing storm, wish I could experience something like that.

I tell you what a big problem is...many people don't think it could happen to them. I don't know how many times I've heard people say "ah, ain't nothing going to happen here". It's maddening to hear this thought process. I bet some of these people didn't think there was a real chance of anything happening to them either so they just shrugged it off. Of course I don't know that for sure but just based on so many people I know thinking like this, I don't see why it wouldn't be prevalent elsewhere.

IIRC, and it's possible I'm mistaken, but I think it was Greg Carbin.

The super outbreak might have covered a larger area but the concentration of so many tornadoes over a smaller area makes this more impressive in some ways. What a horrific year though. Before this outbreak, there was a report on tv there had been 70 billion dollars worth of damage so far this year or that would be the expected number for the season. That number is going to rise obviously.

Just now on fox they had someone from the SPC on and they were comparing this one with the super outbreak they made a very good point..and that is the warning system, communications, and building codes are so much better today than then that for the death toll to be even in shouting distance of the super outbreak is incredible and speaks volumes.

I don't know, fox is doing a good job of it this morning I think...unlike yesterday. CNN on the other hand just keeps wanting to talk about the fooking wedding and politics. MSNBC seems to be covering it the least of all of them. I was absolutely enraged yesterday when all 3 networks were ignoring what was happening. Even while BHM was being demolished they couldn't drag themselves away from the stupid obama birth certificate nonsense and the wedding garbage. But last night I witnessed one of the most maddening things ever in terms of coverage. Local fox station in atlanta would not break away from american fooking idol while there were at least reports at the time of a mile wide tornado heading toward a major city in their viewing area, Rome. And of course this was the same storm/tornado that destroyed tuscaloosa and bhm. Even more disgusting was their own met, ken kook, broke in for about 30 seconds in a little window actually saying the tornado was a mile wide and heading toward rome before going back to idol :axe: I was so angered by this last night I was screaming and cursing them like you wouldn't believe. Absolutely disgusted by it and have sent a very strong complaint into them about it. For all we know some lives were lost because they decided to cover a meaningless pile of sh*t that doesn't mean a damn thing compared to the destruction that was going on. And then of course after idol was over, they were pimping themselves as being the best covering it...when they were the ONLY station not showing constant coverage. I wanted to puke. I have made it my mission to get anyone I can to complain to them. For anyone who is interested, below is their webpage. www.myfoxatlanta.com btw, just to be clear their met, ken kook, is really the only met in atlanta worth anything..indeed he is very very good..which made it more sickening. Obviously this was station managements call, not his, so I don't want to throw him into the fire with them.