• Member Statistics

    15,533
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Love Snow
    Newest Member
    Love Snow
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

20 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Euro looks like another 3-4" tomorrow for Chapel Hill and Durham like @WidreMann mentioned. if it can manage to be pure snow, maybe 2-3" down around Charlotte and points S/E of the city. 

Any upstate love?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Not doubting anyone but where is this evening and Monday moisture coming from?  

It’s a closed contour upper low that’s dropping down into the trough behind our departing storm.  It’s currently located over S Dakota/Nebraska and will drop into E Oklahoma, then swing thru the SE states.  Euro has precip breaking out with it in E TN / N GA a little before midnight then swinging east thru the Carolinas overnight and into the morning. Shouldn’t be anything major, but could be some nice embedded snow showers in there  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only time I was ever in Columbia for snow you would've thought General Sherman was coming back through. Someone should warn them. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's the NWS Raleigh Discussion: As of 350 PM Sunday...

Surface low has emerged off the SE Coast and will pull slowly east- northeast away from the NC coast as a series of shortwaves eject east through the base of mid/upper level trough trough in place across the SE US.

Per 18z/9 GSO sounding, the cold deep near freezing isothermal layer did indeed prevail across the far northern/northwestern Piedmont, in the heart of the cold air damming region in place east of the mountains. As of 20z, latest reports coming in across that region have a snowfall maximum of 14 to 14.5 inches across Forsyth and Person counties. However, impressive mid-level dry punch overspreading the area from the west signals the loss of saturation aloft and ice crystals aloft, which will largely end the production of accumulating snow and sleet, that is until the arrival arrival of the next shortwave later this evening and overnight. Thus, expect the snow/sleet across the far northern zones to change-over to light freezing rain/drizzle to occur within the next hour.

The approach of the upper wave late this evening and overnight will lead to re-saturation and cooling aloft. At the same time, weak cold dry air advection on the back-side of the surface low moving farther offshore, will result in near to sub-freezing temps across the the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. The re-introduction of lift and ice into the cloud will result in another period of light snow/sleet across spreading east across the area. Additional snowfall amounts are expected to be light, ranging between a half inch to 1 to 1.5 inches across the far northern zones. While the far SE counties could see some a mix wet snow and rain, above freezing temps in the mid 30s will result in little to accumulation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

HRRR is further south than the Euro

hrrr_ptype_columbia_17.png

Although there is some question about depth of the moisture, Models stubbornly warm the lowest levels over north ga/upstate overnight which is why some  of that is shown as rain. despite northeasterly flow, which is a bit baffling to be honest.  That said, some of the recent runs are a touch colder. Nam especially seems bizarre, showing temps rising into the upper 30s and even near 40 over the northwest upstate. There could be some weak downslope over far ne ga/nw upstate late but otherwise flow is remains NNE to NE throughout the low levels and if this happens it will surely be a first. I can't recall a single time where the temp starts above freezing already and rises several more degrees during the night with NE winds/flow so i'm curious how this shakes out. HRRR is much colder, especially in the upstate, showing temps staying right where they are now which seems like a no brainer. Models were pretty damn close with temps in the end here...got only to 32.7 here, which is a degree warmer than i thought it would get.  So I can't totally discount it.  Hopefully Places that were screwed and missed out will get a little something out of it. 

I would expect i would see  some here too but the hrrr is dangerously close to showing most of the precip missing here. naturally. 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

So really, on this next “ round” tonight and tomorrow, what are the thermals like? 850s? Is it going to be either rain/snow?

Colder aloft and also at the surface, eventually.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Although there is some question about depth of the moisture, Models stubbornly warm the lowest levels over north ga/upstate overnight which is why some  of that is shown as rain. despite northeasterly flow, which is a bit baffling to be honest.  That said, some of the recent runs are a touch colder. Nam especially seems bizarre, showing temps rising into the upper 30s and even near 40 over the northwest upstate. There could be some weak downslope over far ne ga/nw upstate late but otherwise flow is remains NNE to NE throughout the low levels and if this happens it will surely be a first. I can't recall a single time where the temp starts above freezing already and rises several more degrees during the night with NE winds/flow so i'm curious how this shakes out. HRRR is much colder, especially in the upstate, showing temps staying right where they are now which seems like a no brainer. Models were pretty damn close with temps in the end here...got only to 32.7 here, which is a degree warmer than i thought it would get.  So I can't totally discount it.  Hopefully Places that were screwed and missed out will get a little something out of it. 

I would expect i would see  some here too but the hrrr is dangerously close to showing most of the precip missing here. naturally. 

 

 

 

 

Really hard for me to believe this map-snowing in the midlands while I get rain??

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Really hard for me to believe this map-snowing in the midlands while I get rain??

I could see that just being where the best lift and precip is located, kinda like the November snow in Lexington County in 2015. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Really hard for me to believe this map-snowing in the midlands while I get rain??

It looks like it.   Across the board the models are colder from 925mb to the surface there. Essentially the models push the cold pool with the wedge to the south. Here is the nam's 925mb showing just that. Also here is the nam's 2 meter temps and as you can see, it has really warm temps over the ne corner/nw upstate. GFS is a few degrees colder and the hrrr is showing temps in the 32 to 34 range.  

although the gfs/hrrr are colder at the surface, they all show warming above it similar to below. That said, If precip develops and it's sort of widespread, i wonder if that would make it a bit colder than they are showing. the 18z nam was wetter than the 12z and it was a bit colder as a result at 925mb at least. A bit unusual but they have consistently showed this. 

 

 

925th.us_se.png

 

sfct.us_se.png

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would be awesome to end this event with some snow. Just watched the NWS briefing issued at 4:30 pm and he said that the models over the past 24 hours have trended toward more wintry precipitation throughout the day tomorrow. He said we need to watch it closely and to "not let your guard down." 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

Would be awesome to end this event with some snow. Just watched the NWS briefing issued at 4:30 pm and he said that the models over the past 24 hours have trended toward more wintry precipitation throughout the day tomorrow. He said we need to watch it closely and to "not let your guard down." 

Sounds like a repeat of today with the models getting better as we got closer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I will take the 18Z NAM 3k.....obviously overdone as it has a heavy "band" of snow just sitting over central eastern NC..... but I need it to be right.....

snku_acc.us_ma.thumb.png.4a0dc872c0f9a5dcef7b5754ebd1cea4.png

I’ll eat my own shoe if that happens!

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While I love the look of the NAM I just don’t see it happening.  I’m not going to be greedy.  I’m more than happy with what we got today so I hope the people that got blanked today get it.  Everyone needs to get in on the early holiday fun!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.