Jet Stream Rider

The eye is apparent, and its over water. Dorian is in the Gulf of St Lawrence and looks to be making for the ocean pass into the Labrador Sea. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-ca_reg_east-03-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined edit: That pass is known as Strait of Belle Isle.

That heading of 45 (change from 35 at 8pm) at 13mph, if it holds will likely keep Dorian south of both Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras I think.

In the eyewall wow!

Frying Pan Shoals in the eyewall!

We got a pretty good push a couple of hours ago that produced the NE heading. That helped, but agree a landfall is still likely. Maybe Cape Lookout or Hatteras. Can't rule out something sooner though of course.

HRRR keeps it offshore on the 21z run so maybe the HWRF will come along soon too.

The NAM came to the GFS. NAM track was inland / Pamilico Sound earlier today, like the HWRF and Euro. Large scale it seems minimal, but smaller scale it makes a huge difference.

Just that change to NE from NNE at this point might be enough to spare much of downeast NC from eyewall effects. Feels like a big deal. Possibly landfall will miss Cape Fear now and maybe even Cape Lookout. Higher likelyhood of landfall from Ocracoke to Hatteras possible.

I know what you mean. I always double check myself for confirmation bias. But note the 5pm update moving NE rather than NNE as it has been up to now. We need every bit of E and less N that we can get. Possibly now will miss Cape Fear (actual landfall I mean of course). If it stays out of Pamlico Sound it will help just about everyone downeast.

Noticed that too and have been concerned. Possibly could be due to the interaction with the trough that is kicking it east. The deformation of the structure bringing down some of the upper level winds more effectively. Saw this last year on the back side remnant eyewall of the major that hit along the gulf as it exited northeastern NC. btw - Dorian just got a pretty swift kick, looks like it has taken on a more easterly component. Could really help us out! https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-10-48-0-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

There is a bit of a kicker coming, will it be enough to keep it from landfall along Cape Fear or Cape Lookout is just still too close to call.

Good morning and good luck to all downeast and coastal areas NC & SC. Looks like it will be hard to avoid a landfall by daybreak tomorrow.

0z GFS did not follow suit with a more inland pass downeast, but it is alarming that several of the other models show it. Here is an example from the 0z WRF-ARW2

Tucked into the southeastern bay. Hope we get that east component to the movement soon.

Dorian persists against encroaching dryer continental air mass and a push east. GOES-16 mid-level water vapor just now.