Jet Stream Rider

Ended up with about 3 here. Looks like jackpot with this system was well south of here. We never got the frontogenesis across large areas of the state that the models showed, slp was weaker and further east and south. The shear from the st jet that gave us all the over-running early, hampered the coastal development I think. Nice marginal event though. One of the best snows for looking great in the trees in a while! Thanks for all the diligent tracking folks! Trees from the front yard:

The coastal slp (surface low pressure) will add an eastern component to the air flow for areas north of the slp. That can cause the eastward progression of the precipitation field to slow down, halt, and even fill-in in some cases - resulting in an apparent pivot of the precip shield. This is forecast to be a relatively weak low and developing relatively far off shore, hence why I say it likely will not affect anyone west of say Raleigh imo.

Thats the idea, looks to maybe be a bit too far east to do too much beyond the enhancement in downeast NC. We will have to see once it develops though. Still some variability and chances for folks for the next 6 hours or so.

Coastal SLP starting to develop now at 1014.

Had occasion to drive across town just now. Some accumulation on the roads now. Snowing light to moderate at 32.

Big flakes in light to moderate snow. dusting on vegetative surfaces. Down to 32.

Moderate snow now, 35. No accumulation

Mixed precip rn, ip, sn started here 20min ago in northeastern NC.

The eye is apparent, and its over water. Dorian is in the Gulf of St Lawrence and looks to be making for the ocean pass into the Labrador Sea. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-ca_reg_east-03-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined edit: That pass is known as Strait of Belle Isle.

That heading of 45 (change from 35 at 8pm) at 13mph, if it holds will likely keep Dorian south of both Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras I think.

In the eyewall wow!

Frying Pan Shoals in the eyewall!

We got a pretty good push a couple of hours ago that produced the NE heading. That helped, but agree a landfall is still likely. Maybe Cape Lookout or Hatteras. Can't rule out something sooner though of course.

HRRR keeps it offshore on the 21z run so maybe the HWRF will come along soon too.

The NAM came to the GFS. NAM track was inland / Pamilico Sound earlier today, like the HWRF and Euro. Large scale it seems minimal, but smaller scale it makes a huge difference.