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  1. Could you just as easily say the very inconsistent Gfs is the stupid one? FV3 and Euro haven’t changed H5 every run like GFS and have shown a storm for much of the board the past 2 days. .
  2. “Light wintry precipitation across the midlands” vs “rain in the piedmont”. Lots of time for GSP to watch models. Just feels good having a potential board wide storm to track. Upstate counties south of 85 have basically faired the same way of Columbia, lately. .
  3. I actually felt your areas discussion sounded more bullish than Upstate’s discussion. .
  4. Since the Midlands discussion was posted, I thought I’d share GSP. LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 227 PM EST Sunday: The rest of the fcst just looks like good old-fashioned winter across the western a broad long-wave upper trof grips the eastern half of North America. It seems likely that we will have to deal with at least some wintry precip next weekend, given the fairly good confidence that temps will remain below normal for the period. The main question will system or two? Or, perhaps, more succinctly, will we see any effect from a clipper-type low passing by to the north Thursday night and Friday morning? The GFS says yes...there will be enough low level moisture far enough south to wring out snow showers near the TN border thru most of Friday...but the new ECMWF says no...the moisture will stay well to the north. Have split the difference, which keeps the precip chances down in the slight chance range for the time being. The bigger issue will be the second system diving down into the upper trof Saturday and lingering into Sunday. Model guidance has been all over the place with little run-to-run consistency. Will it be another fast-moving clipper like the GFS indicates, or will the short wave dive farther south, close off a small upper low, induce cyclogenesis along the southeast coast, and precipitate a potential winter storm for parts of the Carolinas next Sunday? The forecast remains conservative at this time, with nearly climo 30/20 precip prob and a mountain snow/Piedmont rain arrangement. Perhaps this is something of a cop-out, but we need better run-to-run consistency before we get carried away. Stay tuned. .
  5. ICON, like the FV3, has the 27th/28th system. Southern slider. .
  6. It’s snowing in Clinton, SC. Thanks ULL. .
  7. Will precip begin before sunrise or is this an afternoon event for the ULL in SC? .
  8. While it’s still 33 in Clinton. We did get 1/2 of sleet from the storm. .
  9. GSP’s discussion page doesn’t give much hope for snow south of 85 and they are not sure if frozen gets to advisory criteria. Your post gives me hope. Thanks for the informative posts for your neck of the words. That would bode well for me in S of 85 in SC. .
  10. Any one care to discuss the cold air and dew points aligning up with reality as compared to modeling? Are we still on track? .
  11. Upstate SC followers hope it’s correct. .