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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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17 minutes ago, bess said:

Sitting in lenoir.. cold but no snow so far :/

I drove to Hickory, Morganton, and Blowing Rock and saw decent snowfall. Friends in Wilkesboro and Taylorsville are also reporting flakes. And then I look at our radar, and what always happens here is happening once again.  Nobody's seen precip of any kind.  I really wish someone could explain the physics of why this always happens in this tiny pocket of Caldwell county.

nosnow_2200.jpg

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6 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

HRRR looks good for our area. 2z is out to be 12 and there's plus 6" totals through the Triangle. And it's still snowing. 

I would love the HRRR to be right, but is there any reason to trust it over the NAM?  I have heard it mentioned over and over that the NAM is killer with dealing with the warm nose.

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3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I would love the HRRR to be right, but is there any reason to trust it over the NAM?  I have heard it mentioned over and over that the NAM is killer with dealing with the warm nose.

Due to it's history yes the NAM has been great sniffing out the warm nose. But that doesn't mean it isn't prone to mistakes.  The HRRR has a good record too in this time frame.  could go either way

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Great news from NWS GSP for the NW piedmont:

Quote

Meanwhile...the northern
extent of the light precip can`t seem to make it into the nrn
foothills and nw Piedmont, which is only allowing temps up in that
region to cool off this evening, which means lower wet bulb temps,
which means even more certainty that precip will either start as
snow or quickly change to snow in the I-40 corridor east of the
mtns later tonite. We await more guidance before applying any
mid-course corrections.

 

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For those who might be interested, here's the link to a list of the current record snowfall event for each individual county in NC:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snowfall-extremes/NC/3

For instance, Lenoir holds the record for Caldwell county at 17".  Morganton is the record holder for Burke county with 19.3".  

On a personal note, I opted not to chase this event as it would cause me to miss an ultrasound appointment for my wife who's 21.5 weeks pregnant.   

Lastly, I'm wishing everyone luck and hope all your weenie dreams come to fruition! :)

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The latest version of the WSW for our area is quite bullish!

Quote

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068-069-501>506-508-510-091115-
/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181210T1700Z/
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem,
Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point,
Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville,
Advance, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick,
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury,
Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Patterson,
Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge,
Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill,
Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood,
Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus,
and Mill Spring
1004 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow ongoing. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 15
  inches expected, with up to 20 inches on the higher ridges
  between Mount Mitchell and Beech Mountain.

* WHERE...The northern mountains of North Carolina, and a
  portion of the foothills and Piedmont between the Blue Ridge
  Escarpment and Interstate 77.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to noon Monday.

 

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Heavy snow mesoanalysis from SPC.  Bring it!

Quote
Mesoscale Discussion 1700
< Previous MD
MD 1700 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1700
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0932 PM CST Sat Dec 08 2018

   Areas affected...Western North Carolina into extreme southwestern
   Virginia

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 090332Z - 090900Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow will develop across western NC over the next
   few hours then spread toward extreme southwestern VA. Snow rates may
   approach 1-2" per hour at times.

   DISCUSSION...Significant large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading
   from AL/TN region ahead of a progressive short-wave trough. Leading
   edge of this forcing appears to be spreading into the southern
   Appalachians at 0330z with substantial precipitation, roughly 200 mi
   wide, trailing into central AL. Back edge of this stronger zone of
   ascent is moving east at roughly 30-35kt which suggests residence
   time in this heavier precip shield may last at least 6 hours. Wedge
   of cooler air is banked against the higher terrain across western NC
   and forecast soundings suggest much of this initial precip will fall
   as snow. However, forecast soundings exhibit substantial warming at
   AVL after 10z which correlates well with back edge of aforementioned
   zone of ascent. A mix of precipitation after 10z could spread across
   the southern half of western NC. Latest HREF Ensemble guidance
   supports this scenario with snow rates approaching 1-2" per hour.

   ..Darrow.. 12/09/2018

 

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For Guys I’m the RAH area. 

“We are sending out new WSW as we speak. The main change was to raise the storm total ice values for southern Davidson, Stanley, Randolph, Montgomery, Anson counties in particular. Values of .25 to .40 will be possible. Impacts will be numerous to potentially widespread power outages”

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6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Uh oh, did it cave to the NAM?

Looks it to my untrained eye, but I'm looking more in VA and during the day on Sunday (watching soundings in BUFKIT) - not focusing on overnight in NC.

ETA: Latest HRRR definitely not as warm as 3km nam was earlier. I didn't realize how warm that run was.

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