CADEffect

I Agree it needs to be suppressed a bit further south for us in the Upstate

Nice hit for North Carolina, Not so much for South. Really like the STJ energy on this run. Would like to see higher QPF not sure on trends yet

on the less confident train of the FV3. NCAR is partnering with IBM on the new model to replace deep thunder/blunder.

People actually uses the ICON?

I agree the models has been doing horrible with this pattern change. The data changes more frequently with abnormal patterns

So much for our "big dog" on the 31st.

I still have hope for you guys on the same system. the Cold air is very potent in what's been modeled so far today.

With the FV3, Euro and CNC all indicated a storm during this time frame. Its perfect for us in the western Carolinas. With the notorious NW trend these areas are already below540 on h5 maps. It will be interesting to see what the 0z Euro spits out with the temps. Just need the GEFS to come on bored then I think I start losing sleep. What about you guys?

What is giving you that feeling?

For what its worth, The Euro had a surprise at hr240 nice high sitting over Iowa and New England with a low forming over Louisiana was pushing southeast toward the GOM.

The more our American models run the more I'm convinced something is a foot. 384hr the GFS has the 540line all the way in Baja California. Granted I know its 384 but you just don't see that. Some of the data also doesn't make sense. A warm up around the late on the 12z

At least its a good look for the other boards. Like you said it wont materialize due to the fact its 384hrs. Side note: Where did you guys read that the shutdown was impacting the American weather models?

You guys don't know how to handle this upcoming pattern change just like these models don't. Chill

Wasn't that predicted in November with the ensembles? Cooler out west and warmer in the East for December? This goes in line with a moderate El Niño. The East gets hit hard with cold temps in February and March.