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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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1 minute ago, phil882 said:

Ask and you shall receive!

Haven't been here in a while, but I wouldn’t miss a chance to check in with my old friends here. I’m out now on the west coast in a location (Monterey, CA) that never gets snow so now I get to live vicariously through you all.

To keep things on topic, one thing I’d lookout for is the front end precipitation rates (now-midnight). Have a feeling those in the WNC mountains will over preform with snow accumulation in the early going for this system, as the frontogenesis on the front end band is probably being a bit underforecasted given the impressive structure seen on radar to come.

For upstate SC, it will depend if the precip rates get high enough to bring the entire 800-sfc column to isothermal. We still have a ways to go for those still in the 40F range, but there is already plenty of mixing for those in the 35-37F range, so once the stronger band moves in, we should see most of the northern upstate (North of I-85) flip over to wet snow before the warm nose comes in.

6

Thanks as always Phil! Not a bad place to be either in Monterey when it's rain and cold everyone will want to be living vicariously through you. 

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1 minute ago, packfan98 said:

Matches pretty well with the Kuchera map from Pivotal:

image.thumb.png.69b8813706039502430f27ec06841548.png

I don’t see the Sandhills (6.3) getting more snow than rdu or gso.  

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10 minutes ago, insipidlight said:

Hm any reason for this?

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

Really think they are far too low in the furthest NE county there in GA. Already at 32.4 with snow on the ground that leaves a long burst of heavy snow at the minimum before we have any warm nose concerns. 4 inches seems really low.

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5 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Matches pretty well with the Kuchera map from Pivotal:

image.thumb.png.69b8813706039502430f27ec06841548.png

Does this factor in sleet and ZR? 12 inches seems awfully high for my area and very unlikely. Gotta be careful with these clown maps as they are usually deceiving. 

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

Got an mPing of snow in Clemmons (near Winston). I'm not expecting it, but it would be nice if we could get things started earlier than ~1am here. 

I saw that too, a tad suspicious. But wouldn't surprise me to get a steady, very light snow starting at around 10 pm. It would be nice to see a dusting before I try to get some sleep.

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At 3:30 pm, light snow was falling at Asheville. Light rain was also being reported at Wilmington, NC where 2018's annual precipitation record was extended to 95.96". Meanwhile, heavy rain had moved into Pensacola.

Overall, the major storm that had been the focus of the computer guidance for more than a week is getting underway. Parts of North Carolina and extreme southwestern Virginia will likely pick up a significant early-season snowfall, even when sleet, freezing rain, and even rain are considered.

My final snowfall estimates for select cities are below:

Snowstorm-SE12-2018.jpg

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3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Does this factor in sleet and ZR? 12 inches seems awfully high for my area and very unlikely. Gotta be careful with these clown maps as they are usually deceiving. 

There’s a separate map for freezing rain but not sleet. I would imagine cutting the totals on the map in half would be closer to reality. 

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49 minutes ago, burgertime said:

RDU per the Hi-Res NAM would get around a foot of snow before changing over to sleet just based on QPF and p-type maps. 

Where are you seeing that? To me this looks like a rain sounding?zfaSw5d.png

 

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22 minutes ago, broken024 said:

Nam 3k is damn close to all rain for north union...

hmm..not sure why but my last post went missing so here it is again. 

I'll be honest, i'm having issues with the 3km nam. For starters, it's too warm at the surface. Second, i find it next to impossible to believe there won't be more sleet than it shows over northeast ga where it essentially has none. Never mind it is warmer than even the hrrr at the surface. Third, it seems too warm aloft compared to the hrrr. Here is the 12z 3km nam 6 hour 850mb temp vs the 0z analyzed hrrr at 18z...

850th.us_se (2).png

850th.us_se.png

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 3:30 pm, light snow was falling at Asheville. Light rain was also being reported at Wilmington, NC where 2018's annual precipitation record was extended to 95.96". Meanwhile, heavy rain had moved into Pensacola.

Overall, the major storm that had been the focus of the computer guidance for more than a week is getting underway. Parts of North Carolina and extreme southwestern Virginia will likely pick up a significant early-season snowfall, even when sleet, freezing rain, and even rain are considered.

My final snowfall estimates for select cities are below:

Snowstorm-SE12-2018.jpg

Outside of Roanoke impressive to see your intitial and final estimates lining up.  Just shows how well in general this has been modeled.  As long as the storm continues as advertised. 

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1 minute ago, ajr said:

Where are you seeing that? To me this looks like a rain sounding?

 

1

Like I said in the post, I was just basing this off of p-type maps and QPF totals between the hours P-type was snow. On those maps RDU gets an inch of QPF while P-type is snow. 

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3 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Outside of Roanoke impressive to see your intitial and final estimates lining up.  Just shows how well in general this has been modeled.  As long as the storm continues as advertised. 

The guidance for the most part has been remarkably consistent. I didn’t run numbers for Roanoke earlier, so I don’t know whether much would have changed had I made an estimate for there yesterday.

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3 minutes ago, ajr said:

 

That's really not surprising.  I've tried not to post much during this storm because I didn't want to come across as too negative but once the warm nose showed up on the NAM the first time I didn't have a good feeling.  We still need to wait and see how this turns out and I really hope I'm wrong.  I love snow just as much as everyone else.

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For the Triad, there is more or less a consensus for snow beginning around 1 am and continuing as all snow through 11am-noon, before mixing with and changing to sleet. We'd have to pull 1" per hour rates just to get 10-11". Experience says that is unlikely. So we're probably looking more like 7-9" on the high end, with some sleet on top. That's my call, but I'm of course hoping for more. 

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3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

For the Triad, there is more or less a consensus for snow beginning around 1 am and continuing as all snow through 11am-noon, before mixing with and changing to sleet. We'd have to pull 1" per hour rates just to get 10-11". Experience says that is unlikely. So we're probably looking more like 7-9" on the high end, with some sleet on top. That's my call, but I'm of course hoping for more. 

Good call and here at randolph, guilford county line id go 4 to 8 and plenty of sleet on top. Dont think Ill reach 6 before sleet gets here, but 4 to 8 gives wiggle room each way. Out to WS and north of Gboro 7 to 12 looks doable, same cavaets apply.

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Just now, beanskip said:

Much “sleetier” look along I-85 corridor on this HRRR run than prior run. 

 

 

Good catch. I wish all sites had the same map types. 

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Much “sleetier” look along I-85 corridor on this HRRR run than prior run. 

A3055E49-AC63-4D17-BF8D-9BB81F31B656.gif

Really need the low to head due east ots. Not crawl any futher north,espeacilly along the coast

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6 minutes ago, Poimen said:

For the Triad, there is more or less a consensus for snow beginning around 1 am and continuing as all snow through 11am-noon, before mixing with and changing to sleet. We'd have to pull 1" per hour rates just to get 10-11". Experience says that is unlikely. So we're probably looking more like 7-9" on the high end, with some sleet on top. That's my call, but I'm of course hoping for more. 

There's that psychological factor of hitting double digits, or the one foot mark, but all and all it should be a pretty satisfying storm, as long as we can get a few impressive snow bands before the changeover. On the plus side, we don't have to worry about melty mush snow, we get the best during the daytime and it should stick around for a few days. 

It looks like the latest RAP joins the consensus with sleet coming in around 11 am.

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Looks like northern union county might end up with just cold rain. Happens every time.



Actually, Union County (especially the northern half) maybe be able to “jackpot” in some way seeing as how it’s on that edge. Not saying we will end up with more snow than places to the NW, as it rarely does unless, the storm is super suppressed. But if we can get higher precip rates, it may be game on.


.

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Ok, so my official forecast from NWS for Mooresville is over a foot of snow.  I'm not seeing it, but I hope it's right.  Matches up with Allan and Eyewall, but I don't understand how the sleet storm after midmorning isn't going to cut those totals big time...

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Ok, so my official forecast from NWS for Mooresville is over a foot of snow.  I'm not seeing it, but I hope it's right.  Matches up with Allan and Eyewall, but I don't understand how the sleet storm after midmorning isn't going to cut those totals big time...

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

I think they are banking on the warm nose not being as strong. Others are saying it will be and cut into totals big time. Who knows maybe we get lucky up that way. I tend to think it will be somewhere in between with snow and then sleet/zr.

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