ryan1234

I would think this is exactly where we would want it as of now. Think blending all the modeling so to speak. Then again, I’m just am amateur. .

I would think this is exactly where we would want it as of now. Think blending all the modeling so to speak. Then again, I’m just am amateur. .

If it's snowing on the Gulf Coast of Texas and Mexico, it better damn well snow here. Otherwise, I am packing up my stuff and moving to Mount Washington, NH.

Feb 2004 and Feb 2014 are also great examples. I was really young in 2004, but if I remember correctly, they were only calling for 4-6 inches. And Feb 2014 was supposed to miss us to the south, I believe. Edit: I would gladly take a half of foot and be satisfied for the rest of the winter. I know, I know:

Thank you! I understand this a board to discuss weather, even in the long range. But this board is getting muddled up with all these screen shots/clown maps at hour 300. I wish we could have a separate topic for the clown maps, 300 hour GFS maps, ect.

Nighttime twisters are no bueno. I hope people have their cell phones turned all the way up.

Looks like some major Lowland snows for the Pac NW.

There was one winter, I believe 2009- where we had multiple clippers bring us a couple of inches, each time. I may have the date wrong, though? One nice thing about clippers is the ratio's tend to be a lot higher.

Well, while I know a lot of you would prefer cold and dry over rain/warmth. I for one, am thankful for the rain. It keeps those wildfires at bay and it also helps us going into Spring. We were in a pretty bad drought a few months ago and that has pretty much been erased.

I am surprised, that you, a meteorologist can call winter over on the 3rd of Janurary. I have a lot of respect for your opinion on this board. But saying we will get nothing is just irresponsible, almost like Glenn Burns calling a destructive ice storm 1.5 weeks out.

Sorry, but I have a very difficult time buying any LR model, including indices, at this juncture. They were awful these last few years. Last winter we had all these in our favor and nothing worked out. (With the exception being the early Dec snow.) We still have a solid 8 weeks left. All it takes is one storm to put us above average.

Maybe. But if we get moisture robbed from convection along the Gulf and Atlantic it could lower those totals... Le sigh, if only this was all frozen.

It's the curse of I-85! But people really do need to relax. And try to learn to take to take any model before 200 hours with a grain of salt. By the way, this is coming from someone who is south of 85. I've been burned so many times that I don't even feel the fire-- aka 33 and rain, anymore...

I for the life of me, still fail to grasp and understand why people on this board expected to cash in, in December. We rarely ever do. Look at the odds of a white Christmas S. of VA. They are and have never been good. We have had 2 storms, within the last 10 years and out of 2 of those, Charlotte proper saw basically nothing. The clock for a good chunk of the SE doesn't start in December. We see our biggest storms in Janurary and Feburary. When it's Feb 20th and the LR looks like ****, then we can start the cliff diving.

If you follow Brad P. and watched his outlook for winter, he mentions more than once that overall, this was going to a mild winter. But he thinks we’ll have above average snowfall. It’s not even Christmas, still plenty of time to salvage a good winter. And it’s a lot easier to get snow in Oklahoma and the Midwest, they don’t have those pesky mountains to delay cold snaps or precipitation. .

Let's start a petition, I am sure we could at least gather a few hundred signatures.x This is an interesting system, for sure though. If we can't score with the setup that is being depicted by some the guidance-- THIS TIME OF YEAR, then I give up! But in all seriousness, I am leaning more towards being a pessimist, it saves a lot of grief for later on. Lol.

I swear, if this yet another I-85 and N storm, I am going to personally demolish the entire interstate and move it 50 miles south. Yes, it would be easier to move, but I am tired of that being the case with literally Every. Single. Storm.

To me, the CMC still looks like temps would be marginal. But it also may not be handling CAD well. I want to believe in it, but the CMC also a crippling ice storm last week, which never came to fruition.

It's almost laughable with how horrible it is in the midrange. Why people hug it every time it shows a fantasy storm is beyond me. The GFS should have its own thread on this forum. I never expected a flake from this storm and I still don't. We're going to have to wait till next month when climatology is on our side.

Well, that's because climatology speaking, odds are against us. White Christmas's are a rarity here. I would love it too, but you have to be realistic. Following one specific run will cause great disappointment, in most cases.

There are so many dynamics that come into play when you have all this energy floating around. I am merely an amateur myself, so I am sure someone could answer with more knowledge, but there are no dumb questions. That's why this board exists!

If Union County (NC) has a sharp cutoff like that, then you can pretty much take it to the bank--right now!

Meh, nothing has really changed from yesterday’s runs. That still shows basically nothing in regards to snow. .

Well, the CPC certainly doesn't offer much hope in regards to an active pattern for the next 7-14 days. Below average precip for the whole Eastern Seaboard. Our chances for winter weather are quickly making that inevitable cliff jump that we seem to make every couple of days...Hopefully the New Year will offer some hope.

I pretty much said this yesterday. We are going to have to wait until we are at least 5 days from an actual event to really iron out details. And even then that's a push. As of now, I am not buying any winter precip next week.