ryan1234
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Everything posted by ryan1234
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Suppression is important at this juncture, however, I will take everything with a grain of salt. Up until we are in a 5 day forecast period and have solid agreement amongst models, I just can't buy into anything they are spitting out. Not trying to be a "debbie downer" but there is just so much that can go wrong. We are in the south and rarely do see any big snows before Christmas. Trust me, I want snow as much as anyone on this forum, but I've been screwed far too many times.
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Hard to bet against the EURO, just saying. It could be on to something. .
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Maybe I’m a little late to my response(got busy) but to give up on winter, when technically, it’s not officially winter... is just not something I would ever want to hear any professional met say. It’s like good olé Glenn forecasting a crippling ice storm for Atlanta. It’s premature. 10 weeks is a long time. You yourself have had some decent snow and ice events during these last few years. A lot of us haven’t. Cliff diving isn’t warranted (yet). .
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And I’m sure ‘Charlotte Stories’ will have an article titled, ‘Charlotte may have historic White Christmas’ with the map included... ugh .
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I agree. This doesn't look like a big deal for anyone. What looked like a bigger deal last week, of course became nothing. I like our upcoming pattern, but I still feel like there are still way too many opportunities for many misses. I hope we can all score something at least once!
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You know what they say about assuming.... However, we are way overdue for a significant ice storm. Not saying this is it, but at some point one of those "clown" maps are going to be right. Even if it's half those amounts.
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If that actually came to fruition most of the state's population would be without power. And we'd end losing a lot of trees. It would make Hugo look like no big deal...
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If you all are reacting and are glued to each individual model run, then you're going to literally drive yourselves insane. We're looking for a favorable pattern and we certainly have that. Stop. Freaking. Out. It's literally not even winter. We don't live in Maine. Let's take what we can get! Be grateful we actually have something to track.
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I agree, but isn't it just has irresponsible to say you won't see anything? I would rather say, "keep abreast to the latest, as much can and will change."
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I'd rather hold off the crippling ice and have a classic SE storm where we all score something. Last time we had that, was 2014. Other than that, it's all been about, location, location, location... I.e. North of 85.
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That’s quite a bold and reckless prediction to make in November... .
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I am just thankful we have actual systems to track for the next few weeks. And that it does not appear we have to deal with any "torches." I think December is going to be interesting, to say the least. And California will be getting some much needed rainfall as well. All in all, not too bad.
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Spoke too soon, and this appears to cover a pretty large area. Still awaiting the graphic.
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I'm surprised that there are basically no watches for the Piedmont of NC and SC. Only the extreme northern counties, thus far. Especially considering the southern portion of the line and the discrete ones in GA look a lot more eerie than the northern portion. Of course, that could change.
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The sun has been peaking out for a solid 4 hours. I’m currently sitting at 83 and the heat index is 87. Never thought I’d be saying that on Halloween. Definitely not good as these storms look to occur during peak heating. I have a sinking feeling that things are going to get pretty nasty. Definitely a spooky situation. .
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I think a lot also depends on how much the instability is available. I have seen many breaks in the clouds in the CLT metro. If I recall, it was supposed to be cloudy all day. But yes, it's more difficult to get severe weather after sunset, but it's not unheard of. Especially with all the other ingredients that are coming together. It'll be interesting to see what the SPC does for their next update. The HRRR model that Brad posted shows some impressive rotation in these storms.
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Has anyone checked out the forecast discussion for this week? GSP is using some pretty ominous wording for this front on Thursday. Looks like it could get nasty. .
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It's just unbelievable. September has always been a dry month, but this is just getting ridiculous. If we don't get a pattern change or a tropical system around here we are going to be talking about forest fires before too long. At some point, something's gotta give!
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Just think, by the end of September both Phoenix and LA will probably receive more rain than most of the Southeast. I hate September! .
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It’ll be interesting to see how this thing develops. At the very least it would be nice to get some beneficial tropical rains from it. Although if you read the main tropical forum, lots of people are pulling for a NE or MA landfall... it’s getting kinda crazy over there... .
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Models are still very inconsistent, IMO. I definitely wouldn’t put any stock into any particular one as of now. This ridge is going to be the ultimate deciding factor as to where this things goes. If the ridge gets weaker or moves east, it’s going to have major implications on the the track. There are still many model runs to go. And so much times for things to change. We saw what happened with Irma and how much of a mess that was. .
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Moderate risk has been expanded.
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Yeah, that really surprised me. I would have assumed that there would have been at least a high risk for tornadoes and a moderate risk for EF-2's+. Even within the squall line.
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One thing to watch is that line in FL. Not sure how likely it is, but it could affect what occurs farther north.
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I too was wondering that as well. I don't think it will, but I am merely an amateur.
