ryan1234

I would think this is exactly where we would want it as of now. Think blending all the modeling so to speak. Then again, I’m just am amateur. .

I would think this is exactly where we would want it as of now. Think blending all the modeling so to speak. Then again, I’m just am amateur. .

Nighttime twisters are no bueno. I hope people have their cell phones turned all the way up.

Spoke too soon, and this appears to cover a pretty large area. Still awaiting the graphic.

I'm surprised that there are basically no watches for the Piedmont of NC and SC. Only the extreme northern counties, thus far. Especially considering the southern portion of the line and the discrete ones in GA look a lot more eerie than the northern portion. Of course, that could change.

The sun has been peaking out for a solid 4 hours. I’m currently sitting at 83 and the heat index is 87. Never thought I’d be saying that on Halloween. Definitely not good as these storms look to occur during peak heating. I have a sinking feeling that things are going to get pretty nasty. Definitely a spooky situation. .

I think a lot also depends on how much the instability is available. I have seen many breaks in the clouds in the CLT metro. If I recall, it was supposed to be cloudy all day. But yes, it's more difficult to get severe weather after sunset, but it's not unheard of. Especially with all the other ingredients that are coming together. It'll be interesting to see what the SPC does for their next update. The HRRR model that Brad posted shows some impressive rotation in these storms.

The NAM looks nasty. But as has been aforementioned, is it trustworthy? Should we get a separate thread going for tonight/tomorrow though? Or are we waiting to see what happens with the later guidance? .

I couldn't agree more! Last weekend was a huge bust for my area. It's too bad too. I know models aren't perfect, but when severe weather bust like that, it causes people to lose faith and interest in severe weather. I just feel like when the time comes for another outbreak, people are going to be unprepared. Heck, the Joplin tornado occurred on a Moderate risk day. I really wish people would take the time to educate themselves on tornadoes in the Carolina's. Brad P. posted an awesome and very informative video on tornadoes in our region/state.

That’s definitely not something you want to see. The NAM may very well be onto something. If so it’s time to batten down the hatches and prepare some significant weather. GSP had a pretty good discussion and even mentioned they wouldn’t be surprised seeing the enhanced risk spread westward. .

I just saw that as well. Some of those cells entering the southern piedmont look to be discrete as well. Not a good look. Does anyone have any insight as far as Robert(WX South) does with severe weather? He called this potentially historic. .

I’d be surprised to a moderate risk, given instability won’t be great. It’s definitely a high shear, low cape setup. Although WX South thinks otherwise. We shall see I guess. .

Yeah, wow. I just read what WX South said and he is making this system sound downright ominous. I guess we will wait and see. .

Well, much like I expected the enhanced area shifted east for tomorrow. I guess the question is how much destabilization occurs tomorrow. The tornado threat doesn't seem that high as of now, but I guess that is subject to change? A couple of you all mentioned the NAM as showing something pretty nasty. Today's threat across LA/MS looks downright ominous though. The ongoing question is, will that transpire east tomorrow?

Definitely, agree. However, if this thing speeds up, it might end up catching many by surprise. But this might up being one of those I-85 specials. If I were within 50 miles of 85, from just east of the AL/GA line to Charlotte and up to the Triad... I'd be ever so slightly nervous. Our area is well overdue for an outbreak.