RAH thoughts at this time...
Cyclogenesis will then occur from the GOM to the Sern and
middle Atlantic coast later Fri into the weekend. While
precipitation chances will consequently increase, the preceding
Arctic high will have retreated by that time, given an unfavorably
configured mid-upr flow pattern for maintaining a cold high for
wintry precipitation in cntl NC. As such, any p-type concerns would
be brief and limited to onset over the nw Piedmont early Fri, if at
It should be noted that the 06Z and 12Z deterministic GFS solutions
that depict a much stronger, lead srn stream perturbation --and
cyclogenesis off the sern US coast centered around Thu-Thu night--
has little deterministic or ensemble support and is consequently
considered an outlier/low probability solution at this time. Such a
solution, however, would be an icy one owing to the maximized
presence of Arctic high pressure that will otherwise be in place
during that time.