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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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700mb temps on the HRRR have never been an issue... mostly closer to the 850mb level during the day tomorrow for the I-85/US-74 corridor on east... 

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Earlier today my NWS grid forecast was set at 5-9" for Sunday (daytime period). It was reduced to 3-5" after lunch time.  Now it's been bumped back up to 3-7". Again, I'm wondering what models they're using to create these output. Anybody know?

 

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3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Wow im waiting on you and clint eastwood obs. Ready to get started and im behind yall in line

Yep I follow him closely too.. he always beats me out on rain and snow totals even though he's only a few miles NE of me.  LOL.  

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Hope to see the lurkers who post obs only during snowstorms.. like that guy Earnest with the wolf avatar up in Statesville!

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Seeing pretty considerable sleet in my part of Charlotte, unfortunately expecting a lot more where that came from overall w/ this storm tonight & into tomorrow right up thru RDU even though taking the HRRR, RAP, & other models at face value says otherwise (bad idea).” - Eric Webb 

 

Sleetfest for the metro area is imminent. 

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18 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Earlier today my NWS grid forecast was set at 5-9" for Sunday (daytime period). It was reduced to 3-5" after lunch time.  Now it's been bumped back up to 3-7". Again, I'm wondering what models they're using to create these output. Anybody know?

 

I think it at least starts with what they call the "National Blend of Models" that is then adjusted by individual offices before the forecast data actually goes into NWS NDFD forecast grids. Here's a a link to some info about that: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_about and you can also see the text output for the NBM for airports across the US by navigating through this directory: http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/blend/prod/

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Brad p's final call map inched the snow amounts back north a little after he brought them south a little last night.  Jas the entirety of mecklenburg county in 2-4 range when last night he had charlotte metro almost in the 4-8 range

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3 minutes ago, NCBlizzard said:

I think it at least starts with what they call the "National Blend of Models" that is then adjusted by individual offices before the forecast data actually goes into NWS NDFD forecast grids. Here's a a link to some info about that: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_about and you can also see the text output for the NBM for airports across the US by navigating through this directory: http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/blend/prod/

Hey I really appreciate it!

 

For others, here's the versions that were released:

V1.0 - V2.0

The first version of the NBM was released January 6, 2016 in CONUS AWIPS 16.1.1, after Congress mandated that the NWS develop a blended model approach following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This first version used 3 models (GFS, GEFS mean, CMCE mean) and covered temperature, wind, and sky cover over the CONUS (Continental United States) region two times a day. Version 2, released November 15, 2016 in CONUS and OCONUS (outside-CONUS) AWIPS 16.2.2, added coverage over Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico.

V3.0

Version 3.0, released July 27th, 2017 (AWIPS 17.3.1) incorporated additional global and mesoscale models for the CONUS, OCONUS, and Oceanic domains along with running hourly and providing 1-36h forecasts. Several new weather elements were added to this version such as calibrated Probability of Precipitation (6-hour) and QPF, ceiling height and visibility, and weather, snow, and ice forecasts to name a few. An exhaustive lists of weather elements added to V3.0 can be found in NWS SCN 17-59.

V3.1

NBM V3.1, which is planned to be implemented October 3, 2018 (AWIPS 18.1.1) will continue to incorporate additional global models (i.e.., ECMWF (deterministic and ensemble)) and mesoscale models (i.e., HRRR-Extended (1-36h guidance)) into its suite of model guidance to cover the CONUS, OCONUS, and Oceanic domains. This upgrade will enable the NBM to fill existing product gaps requested by the Aviation, Fire Weather, Water Resources, and Marine NWS Service Program Offices. To date, NBM data has been packaged in GRIB2 and only provided forecasts at gridpoints. NBM V3.1 will introduce a new text product (similar to MOS-station bulletins) that will provide NBM forecasts at stations. The data in these bulletins are the NBM’s nearest grid point forecast to the corresponding station. We will be generating four individual NBM text bulletin products every hour, each covering different forecast horizons. For a complete discussion concerning these messages along with an exhaustive listing weather elements that will be added to NBM V3.1 and their dissemination times please see the following NBM V3.1 SCN.

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1 minute ago, Cornsnow said:

That's not good right? If it's in Asheville it does not bode well for other areas, correct?

It's fine that's just the column cooling down. Has nothing to do with the warm nose that may/will push in later.

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

^^and that's why we see jumps every few hour. As the models change their depictions the values are then pasted on to your respective grids. 

Interesting.

Also explains why the grid forecast for accumulations are sometimes different than the accumulations mentioned in the text of Winter Storm Warnings. I always figured it was because one was updated before the other, and it would take awhile for both to reflect the same forecast.

The more you learn.

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19 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

That's not good right? If it's in Asheville it does not bode well for other areas, correct?

Don’t look at the 00Z NAM then.  Wicked warm nose at 700mb  crosses the entire state from west to east. Dang.

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5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

One NAM run

Every NAM run for the last three days has been showing a problematic mid-level warm nose.  Maybe it’ll be wrong (I don’t think so since it is usually good at sniffing those out), but it’s been pretty consistent.

At least the NAM has a lot of QPF to work with.  NW NC/SW VA are going to get rocked.

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