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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

^^and that's why we see jumps every few hour. As the models change their depictions the values are then pasted on to your respective grids. 

Interesting.

Also explains why the grid forecast for accumulations are sometimes different than the accumulations mentioned in the text of Winter Storm Warnings. I always figured it was because one was updated before the other, and it would take awhile for both to reflect the same forecast.

The more you learn.

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5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

One NAM run

Every NAM run for the last three days has been showing a problematic mid-level warm nose.  Maybe it’ll be wrong (I don’t think so since it is usually good at sniffing those out), but it’s been pretty consistent.

At least the NAM has a lot of QPF to work with.  NW NC/SW VA are going to get rocked.

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3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

important point.  Temperatures get above freezing around lunch time tomorrow and never go below freezing Sunday night.  Lots of melting to be had.  Monday morning may not be all that bad on the roads.  Tuesday morning could be worse with refreeze.

If thats true, then why is he expecting so much ice throughout the day tomorrow?

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9 minutes ago, Drummer said:

He's making some good points, specifically about how we're seeing temps trend colder than what was expected.

The heavy showers that we have been getting are perhaps cooling the column down faster than the models are expecting. FWIW, 1z HRRR initialized about 3-4 degrees too warm for CLT. 

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6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

important point.  Temperatures get above freezing around lunch time tomorrow and never go below freezing Sunday night.  Lots of melting to be had.  Monday morning may not be all that bad on the roads.  Tuesday morning could be worse with refreeze.

Err. Where?? You didn't specify a location of where this would take place.

Also, didn't you say RAH wouldn't issue WSW's for Wake the other day?B)

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Just now, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Err. Where?? You didn't specify a location of where this would take place.

Also, didn't you say RAH wouldn't issue WSW's for Wake the other day?B)

Apologies, I meant Raleigh.  
And yea they ended up issuing WSW, but I'm still not convinced it was necessary.  I could see some snow/sleet accumulations in the morning that will be washed away by a cold rain later in the day.  I think a lot of children (mine included) are going to be disappointed.  We need to get up early and go outside because playing in the snow in a cold rain later will be miserable.

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12 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Apologies, I meant Raleigh.  
And yea they ended up issuing WSW, but I'm still not convinced it was necessary.  I could see some snow/sleet accumulations in the morning that will be washed away by a cold rain later in the day.  I think a lot of children (mine included) are going to be disappointed.  We need to get up early and go outside because playing in the snow in a cold rain later will be miserable.

I guess we'll know if the WSW was necessary within the next 18 hours or so.. :snowing:

On another note, I told my little one just now the same thing about getting out in the snow early tomorrow. But instead of cold rain, I warned her about how sleet feels when pinging off your face.

 

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