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Everything posted by ldub23

  1. Snows for awhile but its mostly above freezing
  2. Lt snow in Newport news. Hoping for a cartopper but its rather warm and light.
  3. Radar seems to be filling in around central VA. 1-2 inches tonight?
  4. Latest Nam gives me 3 and ric a bit more.
  5. GFS continues to like central VA. I need a 50 mile SE trend.
  6. 2 GFS runs in a row of RIC getting 6+.
  7. If i can get 3 inches out of this one i will be at a foot for the season
  8. It has returned!!!!! GFS is much improved and moving to the Euro
  9. The storm returned big time on the euro. 12+ for Ric? Still snowing after this
  10. I know its not much but could be a brief change to snow Sat AM
  11. Yes, but put all that together and you have a 1.5 inch blizzard!!
  12. Most likely the GFS will trend a bit SE and i will have 3 winter storm warnings in 3 weekends.
  13. 9. I have had two 4.5 inchers. Also had a coating but that didnt do enough to add to the total.
  14. Just ending. 4.5 again. Very enjoyable especially since models were really drying the last 2 days.
  15. Snowing pretty good here in newport news. NAM3K has us 2.5, 12K 5-6. Just hope the ground gets covered. Much larger flakes than we ever had last week. Dont know how long this will last but this was just issued and it includes se va Areas affected...Parts of northeastern North Carolina...southeastern Virginia...southern Maryland...Delaware...coastal New Jersey and eastern Long Island Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 290144Z - 290445Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow appears likely to develop near northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas through late evening. This may include increasingly sustained rates in excess of 1 inch per hour near southern New Jersey coastal areas and eastern Long Island by around midnight EST. DISCUSSION...Consolidating, amplified mid-level troughing is gradually turning east of the Mississippi Valley, and taking on a more neutral tilt as it approaches the Appalachians. Large-scale ascent beneath increasingly difluent flow downstream of this feature is contributing to increasing precipitation near and offshore of Mid Atlantic coastal areas, where a substantial cooling in mid-level cloud tops is evident is latest satellite imagery. Through 03-06Z, upper divergence is forecast to continue to intensify near or just east of the northern Mid Atlantic region, as a smaller scale perturbation begins to emerge from the base of the larger-scale troughing. An already intensifying offshore cyclone may begin to deepen more rapidly while continuing to migrate northward near the Gulf Stream (east-northeast of the North Carolina coast). On the northwestern periphery of the expanding and intensifying precipitation shield, thermodynamic profiles are generally sub-freezing and supportive of snow. While it appears that a developing band of heavier snow will mostly remain offshore, immediate coastal areas probably will be impacted. This may include areas as far south as the Virginia/North Carolina Tidewater vicinity, where low levels remain above freezing, but will fall toward freezing during the next few hours in response to evaporation of precipitation and cold advection. With precipitable water near or in excess of .5 inches, and lower/mid tropospheric frontogenesis likely to increase lift within layers favorably cold for large dendritic ice crystal growth, snow rates of 1/2 to 1+ inch per hour may become more common. It appears that stronger mid-level frontogenetic forcing may begin to support more sustained rates in excess of 1 inch per hour along New Jersey coastal areas and across parts of eastern Long Island toward 05-06Z. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2022 Like Quote Reply Report
  16. I think the precip is way underdone for yall on the models.
  17. Actually, splitting hairs Hampton is under a warning, Newport News is under an advisory. Models really dried up last night but this morning the short range models are showing 3-6, 12K nam 6-8 and even the normally dry 3K is showing 4-6. Hopefully i can eke out 3.
  18. Maybe this time the last minute trends will deliver for the middle atlantic.
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