ldub23

Starting to look like its going to be a struggle once again this season. Maybe it can do something tonight and tomorrow am.

No one talking about the GFS storm?

Yes, but a separate thread for that

Just like that the GFS drops everything

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2024090612&fh=258

But now it has another hurricane to its NE so it recurves

I dont think Texas need worry about a major this year. SW FLA always has to worry about a NE moving major from the West Carib.

The ridge will be strong and long lasting for winter though.

I will watch

Onto OCT. Delayed but not denied!!! The lid will come off. The switch will flip. We are still above normal ace!!

The American Storm on X: "Euro weeklies suggest a September to remember in the tropics https://t.co/PUnfUuDtL8" / X

You were wise. GFS says the first low is 0/0 now but it does develop another one that will recurve 400 miles east of Bermuda. I still think the ATL will produce several biggies in oct/nov but 300-400 miles east of bermuda is where they will likely go.

LOL, nice try. We had a Category 5 hurricane in the MDR last year. We've already had a Category 5 hurricane that developed out of the MDR this year. *eyeroll* And since we have had 2 cloudless waves that couldnt do anything in the MDR. The MDR has done nothing since Beryl. In 2023 it was a 1 storm MDR season like this year. All the others were very weak storms that dissipated over water. Franklin couldnt get going till far north of the MDR. No one thinks last year was an active MDR season

Oct/Nov will be big this year with several strong storms forming in the central Atlantic ocean but its doubtful they will get as far west as 300 miles east of Bermuda. 2025 cant be worse than this season unless the muti-year pattern of a dead MDR continues.

06 GFS agrees with your forecast.

Well done

Lets see it

I think they already do

I dont think we will have to worry about running out of names this season but sept/oct should be normally active.

For the seasonal forecasters it has been the worst season. Big sept/oct coming though

Sort of surprising CSU didnt drop their numbers in half