ldub23

is a western trof as shown at 384 the key to a cold snowy east? I would argue it is not ideal.

Looks pretty mundane. gfs run at 384 very wet out west

If winter is coming to the east shouldnt the moist flow end out west?

aM i dumb? I thought a pattern change was an arctic front with lows in georgia not wisconsin

12 gfs dream pattern. Lows in wisconsin. Awesome

06 gfs mild and wet jan thaw coming soon

75 on 23 dec?

LC Says thaw coming jan 07. Thaw of what?

Possible but it might just head into central america.

I was saying all along the season was depending on 1 storm to form that would make it memorable. It happened this time. JB is saying 1 more between where fiona and ian went

Based on preseason forecasts such as 20/10/5 it is a bust. It will however be a memorable season for a long time due to Ian. Euro shows a very late season MDR storm. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022092900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

Looks like it will be Michael like in damage. It appears alot of preparations are in place once it moves out.

I see the GFS has went more east. Based on that trof i would be shocked if this doesnt continue to correct south and east. 105 knots at landfall seems reasonable though if it takes a more se path a stronger landfall is possible. I can see the cirrus outflow now.

That was if it landfalled in the panhandle as you know. I said if it hit south of Tampa it would be 105 knots which could be a bit low but a major. Its rather amazing to me Ian doesnt zoom out NE and after FLA miss the east coast. Out in the tropics if there is the slightest barely noticeable weakness a storm will turn into it everytime. This is a very strong trof.

But Sandy had a FAR lower pressure than this will have at landfall plus Sandy was very large. I saw 2 other examples given. Katrina and Fiona. Fiona was undergoing intensification while Ian will be literally getting stripped. Ian will not be setting low pressure records anywhere on land. As far as Katrina it weakened windwise but it still came onshore with a pressure around 923 mb which could be a weak cat 5 pressure. To sum up Ian, its going to be rapidly weakening and going rather slow. that will give alot of the surge alot of time to dissipate. From Wikipedia: "Sandy briefly re-intensified to Category 2 intensity on the morning of October 29, around which time it had become an extremely large hurricane, with a record gale-force wind diameter of over 1,150 miles (1,850 km),[6][30] and an unusually low central barometric pressure of 940 mbar, possibly due to the very large size of the system.[5] This pressure set records for many cities across the Northeastern United States for the lowest pressures ever observed."

I will have to disagree. Its going to be crawling into a very very cool stable airmass. The weakening is going to be dramatic. If it does landfall in the pnahandle this seems reasonable. Most likely a high end tropical storm but as we know when a storm is falling apart it has a very hard time transporting wind to the surface. Very likely devoid of convection with a winterlike rain shield to its north. Whatever sustained wind the NHC claims it has at landfall will not come close to be seen on land.

Yea, a bunch of nothing. Even Ian will be a tropical storm at landfall unless it takes a hard right south of Tampa. I see this and my eye glaze over. 2004-05-03-07-11 1996-99-85-79-71-50-54-55-59-60-64-65-69 it aint. Oh, and 1970 had carla which is far more than this season will produce. What the heck 1933-35-36-39 40-44-47. 2018-17-12. I could go on even more. That map is full of nothing.

1005mb? They might be generous calling this a tropical storm. Unless it takes a hard right and hits south of Tampa it will come in as a tropical storm with no sustained tropical storm winds on land. If it hits south of Tampa i predict it will come in at 105knots. Panhandle 50 knots

At this point the further NW the better. Assuming thats 945 mb my guess is it would be 1000mb or higher at landfall.

The only chance Ian has is to turn hard NE south of Tampa.

Then the GFS will be spot on perfect. I was hoping it went up the east coast as a strong extratropical low.

With all that cold dry air to its north and west in the GOM if it goes as far west as the GFS says its going to die out awful fast. If it landfalls anywhere north of Tampa it will be rapidly weakening and those kind of storms probably wont be too wet as well. I dont see this as a mega disaster at all, at least based on the GFS. Its possible it gets trapped in the GOM and just dies.

Seems more likely than the stall but it will change several times.

Euro is certainly interesting for coastal virginia assuming it doesnt keep shifting east. a 30 mile west adjustment and the cane season will end with a bang.

Seems like an awful lot of dry stable air if it heads north to the FLA panhandle or even more west.