ldub23

I saw but it seems unlikely. 25 named storms? Lets say Aug has 2. We need 10 in sept and 10 in OCT. Aug has to be busy to get to 25 and nothing now says busy. Eric Webb says the MJO is Favorable now and wont be in Sept. The season so far is 2 tropical storms hitting the US with the only reason they got to a cat1 was interaction with land. We all saw how all the forecasters were saying how super favorable the tropics were this season. Im not seeing it. Once again the Mdr is choked with dust, dry as a desert, with sinking air added in. Beryl was a butterfly effect thing where somehow it managed to do the impossible but that isnt going to keep on happening. We arent even getting a sniff of anything developing in the subtropics this season. I have no idea what has to happen to get moisture into the Atlantic again but el nino, la nina, anything inbetween and we end up with a dead MDR.

Debby struggled all the way across just to have convection. Still looks very dry and loaded with sinking air.

Jinxed. GFS is hilarious. Stalls then flies west like a bat out of Hell. All the way to Alabama now at 144. SE VA north the same daily rain we have been getting for 2 months

clouds rain and an east wind is far better than 98 and sun. Future Debby is a threat here in SE VA

12 Euro is quite a bit different

Yes. He isnt one for hype and is rather level headed so it may mean more coming from him. 57 is focusing on the right area while the dunce on TWC was focused on a tiny area on visible that if it did develop was just going to go into the south carib and be shredded

Perhaps you are right, but just in case the GFS is right then its going to take awhile after aug 09 for even a disturbance to develop that might end up getting a name. Maybe tomorrow Knabbs abrupt turn to super favorable will happen and it will show 3 storms. Just wait and see but if the GFS is right it will be well past 09aug before the season gets going.

Isnt a 20-40% of at least a depression between 07-13 aug just climatology? GFS now up to 09aug with nothing.

That might be too high. How in the heck there was a major hurricane in this pattern is rather amazing. Hyperactive is not happening now. Dr Knabb was talking yesterday about an ABRUPT ramp up in early Aug then posted a scare map of Aug 2004. 2 for aug seems a better bet than 8 at this point. The really cool thing is aug/sept 2004 had much less favorable SST's in the east pac and ATL than now showing SST'S, especially in the ATL are not as meaningful as advertised. Dry stable air hasnt been easy to dislodge for years now. If there was going to be an abrupt increase in activity in early aug the distrubances that need to grow would be showing up now and the GFS thru aug 05 doesnt even show an abrupt wave.

Final amendment 21/11/5

Amending my forecast to 20/7/3.

18/11/6

Yea, another flood coming.

rain mixed with snow in April

Nothing like rain mixed with snow after summer in March

Lots of 42 and rain though

No chance. No winter=cold spring

And here comes the cold rainy spring. Snowstorm if it were January.

I made a post way back in nov or dec saying it wasnt going to get cold in the east as long as it was cold in alaska and wet in california. Naturally i was called an idiot. Next season when the winter forecasts come out in sept-nov remember how they failed this year. We will have many posts during next winter with all kinds of indices, strat warms, neg nao's, and east coast trofs. Hopefully next winter we will actually have a cold snowy winter but lets simplify the forecasts. Look to Alaska, if they are having an above normal temp start thats good for us. If California looks like it will be dry thats also good for us. Those are the 2 best indicators for winter in the east.

Now the cold comes

Will this be the beginning of the real pattern change?

Winter is mocking me.