ldub23

Its been very persistent

We have had a pattern of lows forming off the SE coast and moving offshore. If this pattern repeats in dec-feb it will be quite snowy especially I-95east

It was lower that that in 76/77 and 77/78

JB has said next season will double this years numbers with an ace well over 200

It does take a NW turn

Euro further west with Idalia part 2

The center of frank appears to be about to zip out of the convection.

Gert and emily should never have been named. Just getting numbers up. Euro has come way down on Frankie. I dont know about 1893 but comparing this garbage to 1995 is beyond a joke

JB is not giving up. He doesnt mention hazel but it formed in the same place

Keep us updated. Good work.

But less fishy than 06Z

JB has spoken. This will be the upcoming winter.

T The GFS came alive

All i see is a weak broad low in the west GOM. No hurricane anywhere thru aug 31.

GFS has a cane in the GOM but it seems highly unlikely that will happen. At 216 is where it begins but what actually will happen is it develops in the east pac. The pattern hasnt changed 1 iota because there is nothing behind it developing. 0/0 Aug thru aug 30 on the GFS now except for an unlikely GOM cane. I think the GFS is confusing the Colombian heat low that is hostile for development for an actual disturbance. Another argument against development is that huge front blasting off the east coast. As i often say if you want to see west carib/gom development you want a locked and loaded high dominating the west ATL. Since its peak and something should be happening i give it a 1% chance. Only a 99% chance it doesnt develop

read fast

First hint the GFS might be starting the season For the first time it shows something developing behind the cane hitting TX which could indicate a pattern change But then it shows a second low forming in the west gom

You didnt mention it was on its way to cat5. Im skeptical though because there is nothing behind it which says the pattern hasnt changed. It will be really hard to get a hurricane in the GOM anytime soon with the East pac on fire like this.

The Man says it again. This will be a Sept to remember. 1954? 85? https://www.cfact.org/2023/08/11/hurricane-update/ "This hurricane season, a September to remember is on the table. The expected impacts on the U.S. Coast have increased compared to the last forecast. Keep in mind that this is, in essence, a “normal” season. 1985 and 1954 were “normal” seasons but had a high impact, and this may be like that." And just wait till next season. Double the numbers, triple the fun Note that next year may be a doozy of a season. I believe this is a bounce-back El Niño in response to the longest and strongest MEI El Niño on record, so we should collapse it and go back to a La Niña base state. SSTs will remain warm, and so that may be a season number-wise (at least for totals) two times higher than this year.

06 gfs has nothing except a weak low thats going to recurve. Im amazed NOAA was so high and no one is reducing numbers by alot.

GFS has this but im doubtful because if things are more favorable then there would be something behind it and there isnt and JB is saying it again This is the euro you mentioned. 5 more days and it might be where the gfs has the cane

The problem with that is an eastern trof kills homegrown systems. All you can ever get is weak, strung out systems moving swiftly Northeast with no chance to do anything. The pattern has to reverse to a ridge over the nw ATL that locks in. JB is implying that saying the Northeast will avg 2-4 degrees above normal aug20-sept 30. We will see. The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi Hottest weather of the summer season likely in big NE cities Aug 20-Sep. 30. 2-4 above average in that time in a summer that has largely been near normal. I am sure we will hear about that too, once it shows up 4:09 PM · Aug 9, 2023 · 2,811 Views 2.4 above normal implies a west atlantic ridge that would trap a developing low and allow it to develop unlike the trof we have now.