ldub23

TWC updated their numbers to 10/5. Rather bullish. Its LC vs the world.

Sounds about right

That reminds me of the time back in the nineties the high temperature was 10 degrees here one day.

No heat this winter

The season needs to get started real soon because peak season is going to be rocked with very unfavorable conditions. CSU says 9/4 and right now we are 0/0. One year we will have high pressure locked over the NW ATL and there wont be an east coast mega trof.

And gone

The gfs cane is almost certainly a phantom. This isnt a pattern that favors anything other than slop in the west carib. LC nailed it last year and will be right this year. 5/1 seems about right though he hinted at lowering his numbers. For anything interesting to form in the west carib in late sept/oct you need a strong high centered over the NW ATL. I think given the current pattern of front after front blasting the NE that is highly unlikely. If there is a season it will be a 1 storm season. Yea, i can already read the replies about having 4 storms already. Where they formed and where they died says dead season to me. Euro at 240

We had 1 double whammy here i can remember. Must have been 66 or 67. First storm we got 12-14 inches with thundersnow. A week later we got storm 2. Inbetween it was bitter cold. Storm 2 started with heavy snow, turned to heavy sleet, then back to snow. School was out 2 weeks.

JB says it!

Same here. Back in 76 sept and oct were cold with early frosts and freezes. Nove and dec warmed up some but around Christmas the true Arctic front came in. Looked like a summer squall line. Got a dusting of snow with the front and then another 2 inches an hour later with a super heavy squall. That was all the snow we got here that winter but it lasted in the shade until the thaw came in mid Feb.

It doesnt have to be a big whopping snow, just something that sticks out as odd or unusual. I have 3 1-Many years ago i was out in the back yard taking out the trash. It was 33 and misty/foggy out. No mention of snow in the forecast as far as i can remember. Anyway, all of a sudden these huge glops of snow started to come down. They were so large you could hear them hit the ground. Lasted about 20 minutes. 2-The forecast was for rain possibly mixed with snow with no accumulations. Was in 1st period in HS and looking out the window and the rain kept getting whiter. Soon enough it was heavy wet snow and we were let out right away. Ended up with a foot. 3-A Noreaster went by and after it the wind stayed nne with low clouds and temps falling into the low 20's. It looked like a thick fog but these tiny individual ice needles were falling. It lasted all day and they were so small they only accumulated in corners where the wind blew them 2 or 3 inches deep. Never seen anything like it since.

Another 1 storm season seems most likely.

But again, SST'S are the least important factor and mean absolutely nothing with hostile upper levels.

The overall pattern will have to reverse for that to matter.

Things need to get started soon

Tell that to the almost non stop rain.

Spot on. CSU may have been the ones visiting the WH. Increasing numbers made no sense. He is going 5/1 and im going 4/1. The east coast trof shows no sign of going anywhere. SST'S mean nothing with everything else totally hostile.

I am starting to wonder why CSU upped numbers. 4 canes and 1 major seems about right.. SST'S are the least important factor. It could be 100 degrees from 10-35N from africa to the se coast and if upper levels are hostile it means nothing. And of course we have the ever present east coast trof.

If there is a season at all it will be a 1 storm season like last year where 1 storm manages to get thru at just the right time.

I think they are behind the curve. They should have reduced numbers. Conditions are horrid now and arent likely to get better.

Or it could be totally dead in aug/sept. Cindy and Bret both collapsed. Before i say this will anything but a dead el nino season i will need to see storms get past 70W on deepening trends and with a west component.

Now its whacking DC.

Pattern change in march to cold rain and 38

Did the pattern change yet

my prediction of 150 percent of normal snow in east is in trouble