ldub23

I guess we will see if it shows up on the Euro shortly. One bad sign is it doesnt do anything on the GFS until it escapes the tropics. Will it make it all the way across with any gas left to try to develop off the SE? Other than that everything else is once again delayed. If this craps out then 0/0/0 Aug looks golden. Getting from 30 to 70 thru all this hostility will be fun to watch but what the heck, at least for now its a wave with showers. I personally would have waited a few days to call it an invest just to see if it survives. 2 PTC's already couldnt make it. You can see the Cat5 TUTT ne of PR. 2 things will happen. It will vamoose and give 90L a slight chance or it sits right there and knocks the snot out of 90L. If that TUTT is still there in 4 days then development drops to 0/0 Andy isnt terribly optimistic for 90L, and peak season cancel? Euro bows to King TUTT and the bone dry air. Nothing thru 192 from 90L. I think we are being punked about this being MJO phase 2, lol. Yea, Euro shows something weak at 192 but that will likely get pushed back and it still has tha Cat 5 TUTT to get thru. I really think there was no need to call this an invest. Maybe they are just bored. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr I dont think i have ever seen a bigger nothing season than this year. Prospects overall dont look good. For "homebrews" you need several things. A-waves that can hold together and make it to the waters off the SE coast. Not this season B-High pressure locked in the NW ATL. We have low pressure. C-The area just off Africa offers the best chance for something to develop but who cares? I apologize for posting about the entire tropics here but i only have 5 posts. I will be back in the other thread after this. I doubt 90L will be worth posting about. I think the green stuff East of FLA is 90L. On satellite it appears to be rapidly drying up for now.

*Raises hand. I remain very unimpressed. It also looks like the East Pac is going to get active again flooding the Sahara with even more shear. GA is right though, for the first time in a very long time there is a wave in the Sahara with a shower!! Andy brings up a good point. Everything seems to be a "go" and he doesnt even mention the toasty SST'S yet the Sahara remains sitting on the toilet constipated as hell. I have already made that conclusion. NEVER FEAR!!! JB is once again predicting hyperactive. With things so dead slow would 1 TD that quickly dissipates count as hyperactive? Finally i have my preliminary forecast for 2023. I will certainly make revisions but there are some indications the el nino may not be terribly strong so im going with 11/7/3. El nino or not conditions in the Sahara cant be as bad as this season.

yea, and while 12Z has a hurricane its delaying things once more by developing another wave further back in Africa. At this rate it wont be till Oct for the super favorable to get here. As i said before even in the deadest of dead seasons we had waves with showers to track that got across the Atlantic. Lets go for the big records!!! 0/0/0 Sept and no canes. By the way the wave that miraculously develops does so encased in bone dry air. Please, i beg you tropical Gods, give me a shower i can track across the Atlantic. The 2 best quotes of this season will be DT'S post referenced below "August will be Sideways" and JB issuing a "Fast and Furious Watch" 3 weeks ago. Sorry i have to keep adding to my awesomely brilliant posts but i can only grace you with awesomeness 5 times a day In the interest of fairness here is some "good" news.

Everytime i get mocked the tropical Gods respond, lol. Im declaring victory. The season isnt going to be hyper active or even "active". Normal at best at this point. As far as the rest of the season lets hope we can get 6 canes and 2 majors. *Hopefully 06Z will be back to showing a few clumps of clouds at least. Even in dead seasons we used to get waves with showers. Yesterday i was skeptical because right after the twin super canes the models went back to nothing and bone dry air after the 2 canes. *As far as the ensembles go the euro also shows nothing and its now very realistic we go 0/0/0 thru Aug. *****2 important records within reach now. Tying the least active Aug and longest period between named storms. 2 more tidbits of info. A-This was supposed to be a hyperactive season. Also lots of "homebrew" with rapid intensification close to the coast. We have had 2 PTC'S and neither could even form a closed circ. B-As pointed out the 06Z shows another super cane. But look behind it. There is nothing following it, not even a strong wave. At season peak with the conditions apparently favorable enough for a super cane to form nothing else does? This tells me 1 of 2 things. The model is wrong and the initial cane is yet another phantom, or the conditions have changed and at 12Z the model will be decidedly more active.

2 into 1? Dont look at the 18Z gfs then. I realize this is highly unlikely to happen. Even in the most active seasons you dont see this. A bit later 2 potential major hurricanes approaching the US coast 600 miles apart on the same day? Call an ambulance for JB!! I think he just fainted.

Mocking me hasnt worked out that well so far this season, lol. Now you have cursed the next wave as well. I have doubts it will amount to anything. Greg Postel was talking about it and then ended with saying there is no guarantee conditions will be any more favorable in a week than they are now. Its possible it could be a nothing storm that croaks soon after developing. WHERE'S THE BEEF?

As expected in a dead season it appears to have been dropped by the GFS and Euro due to the continued hideous conditions. Not a surprise. Euro has another low later but will be dropped within a day. GFS has some slop here and there but basically nothing. Dead City. As far as the BOC, just whats expected in a dead season. Nothing can get across the Sahara. Pukeworthy season. I cant remember a season where we didnt even have waves to track *** Please tropical Gods dont mess up the 0/0/0 Aug with a BOC nothing.

It brings back the cane it dropped. Almost a good enough pattern. 30 hours later it hasnt moved a whole lot and looks to get trapped under the high

Another 5 yard false start penalty or finally the real deal? Check the lower right. Its put up or shut up time

This was issued Aug 09 and its been dead since then. I have averaged out the numbers. 8.5 hurricanes, 4 majors, 138 ace for the remainder of the season. All i can say is if we get to these numbers it will be a wild ride indeed. Im doubtful, but read for yourselves. https://www.cfact.org/2022/08/18/2022-hurricane-update/ "I think we will see a fast and furious period from mid and late August into early September, followed by a lull and then another active period. I don’t have any below normal risk impact areas, though there certainly will be when the season is looked at retrospectively." Mid to late Aug is here and no canes, no majors.

As i suspected it has no Atlantic super cane nor GOM super cane. It does have a ton of bone dry air everywhere with rather high pressures in the tropics. All i need to do is look at this picture to know the pattern shows zippo signs of change. We have a winter time storm hitting Maine, low pressure locked over the NW ATL, chaos in the west ATL(Trofs and shear) no clouds in the deep tropics, and oodles doodles of bone dry air. When this satellite map has a well formed cane west of 65 and south of 25 with a west component in its direction then wake me up. This is getting ridiculous. Unless or until the euro can confirm what the GFS is fantisizing about then its not happening. The time for hints, signs, and model storms is over. All Clear on the Western Front. Can someone please let me know where that damn hurricane season switch is? I will gladly turn it to the "ON" position. I would love to be wrong and have something to track other than the latest dry air surge or east coast trof. WHERE'S THE BEEF?? Euro says we are getting close to a 0/0/0 Aug. This tweet is from yesterday. Its clear now this wave will croak like 97L did.

We will see. The Atlantic super cane is a "ghost" of its former self at 12Z and if i remember correctly back in June the GFS insisted a major cane was going to hit the gulf coast. It didnt form, much less hit anything.. Mid day Euro will be out shortly. If it shows nothing at 240 then its doubtful anything of note will form.

Lets see what it looks like at 06Z. Just need the wheel to be a bit stronger.

12Z the major hurricane turned into a 1010mb nothing. 2 other weak lows. For peak season this is rather pathetic. There is also a potent TUTT which is no doubt why the monster cane turned into a tame teletubby. This is Sept 01 with absolutely nothing of note. At least at 06Z you could see the edge of the phantom cane in the lower right.

0Z not all that thrilling for phase 2 and season peak. Hints and signs though!!

Several points. If they dont get close to land them im still right because the preseason forecasts had higher than normal chances for a season of note. If all we get is climo or less im right because this was supposed to be at least more active than normal if not hyperactive. And finally, 06Z GFS put the lid back on with tons of dry air and higher than normal pressures in the MDR. And, i dont give a rats rear end about some weak low that forms at 33N 54W and zippity doo-dahs NE. Here is the 06 GFS with the lid firmly back on. Are a few storms going to form between now and Oct 01(the season will have an early end)? Sure, but i am quite confident the preseason forecasts are going to fall flat on their faces. With this pattern the waves will come off way too far north to even matter and any wave that manages to get into the Sahara has a doubtful future at best. We have one hell of a TUTT out there as well. Looking at that pattern any miracle storm that does form in the MDR is bebopping out to sea so its meaningless. Now, keeping alive the hopes for a 1 storm season of note we need to look at the high pressure over the Northeast. IF that can hold thru mid Sept then we need to hope something can get going in the far western basin under the ridge. *******Im not being a jerk i simply can not reply to people here because i can only post 5 times a day. I can talk via PM.

Its been so dead in the tropics i figured i would post this. Its a quote for Larry Cosgroves great newsletter. "And should we follow the pattern seen in the Southern Hemisphere, with more and frequent cold pool advances toward the Equator, and flip it to our side of the world, then an argument exists for a very active, and notably colder winter to the right of the Rocky Mountains to the East Coast. We still have time to look at pattern evolution. But if you are a fan of winter weather, you should be smiling right about now. I know I am!" I think we will see 150% of normal snow from RIC-BOS.

We are in phase 2 at the peak of the season(aug/sept) and not a single cane is forecast by any model. This is why i think Sept will be below normal. Phase 2 will be gone by mid sept, if not sooner. At least phase 2 is producing another cane in the east pac.

I agree. The season ending winter pattern has arrived early. I am also surprised that once again we are in the super duper favorable phase 2. I must have missed how phase2=The Sahara. 100% dead MDR and even if that weak low forms off VA and is partly tropical its the exact thing you would expect to see in a dead season. Mid Nov and this would be a big early season Snowstorm for the NE. Another nail in the coffin of the 2022 Sahara caneless season. It looks like the phase 2 sahara version of the MJO will be gone by Sept 10. After that they may not have graphs that will be able to show the massive lack of moisture in the MDR. CSU, if you are listening do an emergency update and forecast 4/1/0 for the rest of the season. Lows have been regualrly forming in the massive offshore trof for sometime. We have one today, though not as strong as the low next week. The sad thing is for snow and cold lovers that eventually this wintertime pattern will reverse to a pattern that would be favorable for hurricanes but by that time all it would lead to is a mild winter.

The way this season is going 5 posts a day will be just fine, lol. As we can see here the reason the GFS contines to keep the Sahara bone dry is because of super duper high pressure in the tropics. Look at the last frame. INCREDIBLE. No wave will make it thru that. We will see just how much the gulf and carib can do with this pattern. I suspect not much. Also, move your eyes north from the tropics and notice there is no wheel. High pressure just keeps moving west to east and never locks in. That pattern is NOT conducive to late season activity. We are already getting cooler than normal air in the east now. I didnt think that would start till mid Sept. This is the early winter pattern i have been talking about. I hope texas gets some beneficial rain and even without a weak low the rain is coming. Here is the GFS forecast for TX rain In summary this pattern will have to reverse or sept will be as dead as Aug. And if the pattern doesnt reverse i will have to disagree about Oct. Addendum: Also notice the coast of Africa. Because of the super duper wooper high pressure the waves are squeezed way too far north so there may not even be any waves to worry about.

A quick td trying to develop in a year that was supposed to be hyperactive. *sighs*

Now can you explain how wanting something translates into making it happen? And would you be nice enough to go into the winter threads and scold them for wanting weather that kills far more than hurricanes. Right now in the mid-Atlantic forum they are in panic and meltdown because the evidence seems to indicate a mild winter. Let them know they should be rejoicing and arent being nice wanting weather that kills. Oh, and please let storm chasers(who desperately want strong tornados and hurricanes to form though no doubt they can claim purity by using their thoughts to keep what they want from hitting populated areas) know your feelings about what they desire. If someone, anyone, can show how I, snow and cold lovers, storm chasers, and others can control the weather with our thoughts please do so. No one who posts on this forum came here to post because they like warm sunny 72 degrees days year round. And one last thing. No doubt we will get someone saying, yea i want to watch cat 5 hurricanes but i want them to stay out to sea. Its awesome you can control them that way. I sure cant. *I dont want to sound harsh. I am quite certain you mean well and want the best for everyone.

When JB threw in the towel earlier this morning i knew things were looking OK. There will still be a few storms, i think anyway. As i said earlier a nothing can spin up just off the African coast. IF,and i do mean IF, a wheel forms and locks in then its possible to get something in the bahamas or NE GOM. Something else i noticed. For quite some time Dr Knabb has been saying the favorable conditions were going to leave the EAST PAC and move over the Atlantic. He wasnt using climo. It was going to happen. Then 3 days ago he started to talk about how CLIMO said the atlantic would get more active. We can still have a 1 storm season where 1 storm manages to make it thru.

Sad that in the middle of what supposed to be a very active season we get to read about dust in FLA. JB is starting to go wobbly. Says we "should" see activity pick up but for the first time this season brings up a model saying nothing will happen. JB is beginning the process of backtracking. 0/0/0 Aug? Followed by a 0/0/0 Sept??. All JB is doing now is reciting climo. Its AUG 11. Things damn well better pick up. Oh, if this is phase 2 in the Atlantic what does an unfavorable phase look like? Oh, again what does an unfavorable phase of the MJO look like? If we are in phase 2 now maybe we need phase 17.38 Does phase 2 look like this? I am so rooting for a 0/0/0 Aug. Oh, and look at the African coast. Waves will come off too far north to matter anyway. My guess is the only place we MAY see development in the Sahara is just off the African coast. If a strong wave can time its splash down into the atlantic with a brief pocket of moisture it might spin up into a weak nothing before it bebops north or croaks of thirst.

Glad you are getting rain and cooler temps. Im starting to wonder if Aug is 1/0/0 or even 0/0/0 could Sept be even deader? Could Sept be -1/-1/-1?. New CFS just in and it makes the Sahara look like a tropical paradise compared to the dried up prune ATL. CSU needs to do an emergency update to 4/1/0 for the rest of the season. October to the rescue!! I have been reading where the experts are saying the super duper favorable conditions were going to vamoose in sept. Maybe the ATL will just dry up and we can walk to Africa. To be fair here is what Klotzbach just said. The Atlantic cant do what he is implying if the CFS is right. I hope and pray Phil is right but im doubtful. Warm SST's are great but they cant overcome what the CFS is showing. Ill go with the 2009 52.6 ace.