ldub23

I know its not much but could be a brief change to snow Sat AM

Yes, but put all that together and you have a 1.5 inch blizzard!!

Most likely the GFS will trend a bit SE and i will have 3 winter storm warnings in 3 weekends.

9. I have had two 4.5 inchers. Also had a coating but that didnt do enough to add to the total.

Just ending. 4.5 again. Very enjoyable especially since models were really drying the last 2 days.

Snowing pretty good here in newport news. NAM3K has us 2.5, 12K 5-6. Just hope the ground gets covered. Much larger flakes than we ever had last week. Dont know how long this will last but this was just issued and it includes se va Areas affected...Parts of northeastern North Carolina...southeastern Virginia...southern Maryland...Delaware...coastal New Jersey and eastern Long Island Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 290144Z - 290445Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow appears likely to develop near northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas through late evening. This may include increasingly sustained rates in excess of 1 inch per hour near southern New Jersey coastal areas and eastern Long Island by around midnight EST. DISCUSSION...Consolidating, amplified mid-level troughing is gradually turning east of the Mississippi Valley, and taking on a more neutral tilt as it approaches the Appalachians. Large-scale ascent beneath increasingly difluent flow downstream of this feature is contributing to increasing precipitation near and offshore of Mid Atlantic coastal areas, where a substantial cooling in mid-level cloud tops is evident is latest satellite imagery. Through 03-06Z, upper divergence is forecast to continue to intensify near or just east of the northern Mid Atlantic region, as a smaller scale perturbation begins to emerge from the base of the larger-scale troughing. An already intensifying offshore cyclone may begin to deepen more rapidly while continuing to migrate northward near the Gulf Stream (east-northeast of the North Carolina coast). On the northwestern periphery of the expanding and intensifying precipitation shield, thermodynamic profiles are generally sub-freezing and supportive of snow. While it appears that a developing band of heavier snow will mostly remain offshore, immediate coastal areas probably will be impacted. This may include areas as far south as the Virginia/North Carolina Tidewater vicinity, where low levels remain above freezing, but will fall toward freezing during the next few hours in response to evaporation of precipitation and cold advection. With precipitable water near or in excess of .5 inches, and lower/mid tropospheric frontogenesis likely to increase lift within layers favorably cold for large dendritic ice crystal growth, snow rates of 1/2 to 1+ inch per hour may become more common. It appears that stronger mid-level frontogenetic forcing may begin to support more sustained rates in excess of 1 inch per hour along New Jersey coastal areas and across parts of eastern Long Island toward 05-06Z. ..Kerr.. 01/29/2022 Like Quote Reply Report

I think the precip is way underdone for yall on the models.

Actually, splitting hairs Hampton is under a warning, Newport News is under an advisory. Models really dried up last night but this morning the short range models are showing 3-6, 12K nam 6-8 and even the normally dry 3K is showing 4-6. Hopefully i can eke out 3.

Maybe this time the last minute trends will deliver for the middle atlantic.

If the GFS comes in more west 8-12 is possible.

Looks pretty good to me.

Sorry the other map wont post. 18Z EURO has stopped the bleeding and is a bit more west. 5-7 on the coast and snow has expanded more west. Looks like it shows 3+ for RIC.

Canadian looks quite a bit better.

We are all in a bad spot now. All we have is hope left, lol

Will be the first time i can remember getting 2 winter storm warnings in a week if this pans out.

18z Euro cuts off at 90 hours but its dumping snow here. All we can do is wait

Hopefully not, lol. If we can set it right here then its good for all of virginia east of the mountains.

Could almost the exact same timing as last weeks storm.

With a nice band of snow still to my west i think i will end up around 4.5. Very nice indeed. It was awesome to have a storm where i never had to worry about a changeover to sleet or rain. Areas south of me probly 6+ inches.

Nice to hear. About 1.5 inches here and its took 5 hours to get that, lol. Looking at radar and that Raleigh has a few hours of snow left i think 3 is easily doable.

Yes, snow has begun ahead of schedule in Newport News. Last RGEM SAYS 6-7 is possible.

Is that better than it was? Im hoping ric gets some snow. The local guys futuretrak had snow getting to RIC.

Models dried up late last night but today they are getting better. Raleigh wx has me 4-8, eric webb, 3-7, DT 2-4. Local channel 10 guy has me 4-6. With it snowing at night, cold temps and cold roads and ground it will all stick. Around 4 sounds right.

GFS has a nice 3 inches here with the front with more fri evening. Ric is going to cash in also.

RDPS has Ric 5-6 inches.