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ldub23

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Everything posted by ldub23

  1. The overall pattern will have to reverse for that to matter.
  2. Spot on. CSU may have been the ones visiting the WH. Increasing numbers made no sense. He is going 5/1 and im going 4/1. The east coast trof shows no sign of going anywhere. SST'S mean nothing with everything else totally hostile.
  3. I am starting to wonder why CSU upped numbers. 4 canes and 1 major seems about right.. SST'S are the least important factor. It could be 100 degrees from 10-35N from africa to the se coast and if upper levels are hostile it means nothing. And of course we have the ever present east coast trof.
  4. If there is a season at all it will be a 1 storm season like last year where 1 storm manages to get thru at just the right time.
  5. I think they are behind the curve. They should have reduced numbers. Conditions are horrid now and arent likely to get better.
  6. Or it could be totally dead in aug/sept. Cindy and Bret both collapsed. Before i say this will anything but a dead el nino season i will need to see storms get past 70W on deepening trends and with a west component.
  7. Pattern change in march to cold rain and 38
  8. my prediction of 150 percent of normal snow in east is in trouble
  9. is a western trof as shown at 384 the key to a cold snowy east? I would argue it is not ideal.
  10. Looks pretty mundane. gfs run at 384 very wet out west
  11. If winter is coming to the east shouldnt the moist flow end out west?
  12. aM i dumb? I thought a pattern change was an arctic front with lows in georgia not wisconsin
  13. 12 gfs dream pattern. Lows in wisconsin. Awesome
  14. 06 gfs mild and wet jan thaw coming soon
  15. LC Says thaw coming jan 07. Thaw of what?
  16. Possible but it might just head into central america.
  17. I was saying all along the season was depending on 1 storm to form that would make it memorable. It happened this time. JB is saying 1 more between where fiona and ian went
  18. Based on preseason forecasts such as 20/10/5 it is a bust. It will however be a memorable season for a long time due to Ian. Euro shows a very late season MDR storm. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022092900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr
  19. Looks like it will be Michael like in damage. It appears alot of preparations are in place once it moves out.
  20. I see the GFS has went more east. Based on that trof i would be shocked if this doesnt continue to correct south and east. 105 knots at landfall seems reasonable though if it takes a more se path a stronger landfall is possible. I can see the cirrus outflow now.
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