ldub23

Seems more likely than the stall but it will change several times.

Euro is certainly interesting for coastal virginia assuming it doesnt keep shifting east. a 30 mile west adjustment and the cane season will end with a bang.

Seems like an awful lot of dry stable air if it heads north to the FLA panhandle or even more west.

JB SAYS IT!!! Hazel or Sandy after Gaston By the way, this is not Gaston, This is after Gaston

Has some similarities to Frederick 1979 though David went much further west.

The path, strength, and even if it will even exist will change with each model run. The euro does show lowering pressures in the west carib Most likely it will just head west into central america.

Boring this year for sure. Hurricane season 2023 will live on in peoples memories for years to come. Mark that down.

Here is a possible 1 storm season storm. Possibly another GFS phantom but its worth seeing if any other model will show this.

I guess we have to counter that with this. It would have to go from what it looks like now to a possible low end cat4 west of Bermuda. Given that in reality it isnt a tropical storm any longer and its looks awful this seems equally unlikely. Maybe it just opens up to a wave and just sails into Mexico. At least as far as pressure goes the Euro showing a 990 mb pressure while the gfs is showing a 941 mb pressure i would have to say the euro is a bit more realistic in strength but not necessarily in placement.

All in all we still havent had a trackable storm this season. Its not a tropical storm now. Maybe its remnant will dance thru all the islands and revive in the future but for now its 2022 on steroids. Given its sick appearance right now i would say the stronger models may be off just a bit.

JB chimes in

Wait and see what it looks like past 60W

Which probably means nothing will happen. Hopefully this is the map in 12 days with lowering pressure over the bahamas with a large high to the north. I found myself rather disappointed in Rick Knabb today. Just before 3pm after the new Euro was out he was still using last nights Euro to show how 96L was going to develop off the SE coast. He had to know the new Euro was totally different. Sad to see he did that.

Maybe, it has deteriorated alot on satellite and the 06Euro says i was just teasing you. On the other hand the 06 GFS pops a major hurricane literally out of thin air and hits the central GOM coast. Probably nothing will happen.

It would probably be stronger if it didnt tangle with Hispanola http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022091300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr Any other year and this would be a GO.

For some reason i cant get the Euro to go past 192 but its a bit better in the bahamas region. Shows pressures lowering more than before with a nice ridge to the north. For Sept its not much, but its all we got, lol. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022091212/slp8.png

If anything is there in 7 days the Euro shows an awesome pattern. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022091112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

Not the best look for a memorable October. Maybe the wheel will show up.

Early end to the season still on the table. Euro shows 2 storms forming in the East Pac. This "burst" of activity wasnt much. A storm that had to form from a non tropical low near greenland and another one that had to escape the tropics. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022091012/slp8.png The east coast trof hasnt budged all season.

Im hoping next years elenino will end up active in the atlantic.

Obviously, anyone wanting sunny weather is a death dealing ghoul. On a serious note i got some bad news today. My eyesight has been getting really blurry. I went to an Opthamologist. She said i have Ocutropulus. It only effects people squinting at satellite pictures to find clouds in the tropics. Please pray for me.

As opposed to tornados, especially severe tornados. that many people want to form to watch them or chase them. Blizzards? Rain? Rain has ruined many lives. Ever hear of floods? Sunny weather? You want people to get skin cancer?

It develops the wave behind it a bit but its much much much much weaker than last night. It will be dropped tonight.

All arguments aside, the JB-o-Meter is sitting at zero. As far as tropical storms i would 1 million times want a tropical storm to hit here than seeing 20 greenland/azores hurricanes doing nothing. Im old enough to remember tropical storm Doria back in 1971. Practically went right over my house. It was awesome seeing the outer cirrus following by a lowering cloud deck with 2 outer bands bring heavy squalls followed by 40-60 mph winds with a few gusts over 70. **Does anyone think we will ever again see a well developed hurricane sitting at 14n 55w moving wnw with no sign of an east coast trof?

I agree. Its a totally dead season. I dont care about a greenland hurricane. As i always say go into the winter weather thread in the midatlantic forum in Feburary when winter has been snowless in DC with temps 6 degrees above normal and claim how great a winter its been because Butte Montana has had 4 blizzards and is 10 degrees below normal. They would think you are an idiot.