ldub23

Yea, a bunch of nothing. Even Ian will be a tropical storm at landfall unless it takes a hard right south of Tampa. I see this and my eye glaze over. 2004-05-03-07-11 1996-99-85-79-71-50-54-55-59-60-64-65-69 it aint. Oh, and 1970 had carla which is far more than this season will produce. What the heck 1933-35-36-39 40-44-47. 2018-17-12. I could go on even more. That map is full of nothing.

1005mb? They might be generous calling this a tropical storm. Unless it takes a hard right and hits south of Tampa it will come in as a tropical storm with no sustained tropical storm winds on land. If it hits south of Tampa i predict it will come in at 105knots. Panhandle 50 knots

At this point the further NW the better. Assuming thats 945 mb my guess is it would be 1000mb or higher at landfall.

The only chance Ian has is to turn hard NE south of Tampa.

Then the GFS will be spot on perfect. I was hoping it went up the east coast as a strong extratropical low.

With all that cold dry air to its north and west in the GOM if it goes as far west as the GFS says its going to die out awful fast. If it landfalls anywhere north of Tampa it will be rapidly weakening and those kind of storms probably wont be too wet as well. I dont see this as a mega disaster at all, at least based on the GFS. Its possible it gets trapped in the GOM and just dies.

Seems more likely than the stall but it will change several times.

Euro is certainly interesting for coastal virginia assuming it doesnt keep shifting east. a 30 mile west adjustment and the cane season will end with a bang.

Seems like an awful lot of dry stable air if it heads north to the FLA panhandle or even more west.

JB SAYS IT!!! Hazel or Sandy after Gaston By the way, this is not Gaston, This is after Gaston

Has some similarities to Frederick 1979 though David went much further west.

The path, strength, and even if it will even exist will change with each model run. The euro does show lowering pressures in the west carib Most likely it will just head west into central america.

Boring this year for sure. Hurricane season 2023 will live on in peoples memories for years to come. Mark that down.

Here is a possible 1 storm season storm. Possibly another GFS phantom but its worth seeing if any other model will show this.

I guess we have to counter that with this. It would have to go from what it looks like now to a possible low end cat4 west of Bermuda. Given that in reality it isnt a tropical storm any longer and its looks awful this seems equally unlikely. Maybe it just opens up to a wave and just sails into Mexico. At least as far as pressure goes the Euro showing a 990 mb pressure while the gfs is showing a 941 mb pressure i would have to say the euro is a bit more realistic in strength but not necessarily in placement.

All in all we still havent had a trackable storm this season. Its not a tropical storm now. Maybe its remnant will dance thru all the islands and revive in the future but for now its 2022 on steroids. Given its sick appearance right now i would say the stronger models may be off just a bit.

JB chimes in

Wait and see what it looks like past 60W

Which probably means nothing will happen. Hopefully this is the map in 12 days with lowering pressure over the bahamas with a large high to the north. I found myself rather disappointed in Rick Knabb today. Just before 3pm after the new Euro was out he was still using last nights Euro to show how 96L was going to develop off the SE coast. He had to know the new Euro was totally different. Sad to see he did that.

Maybe, it has deteriorated alot on satellite and the 06Euro says i was just teasing you. On the other hand the 06 GFS pops a major hurricane literally out of thin air and hits the central GOM coast. Probably nothing will happen.

It would probably be stronger if it didnt tangle with Hispanola http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022091300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr Any other year and this would be a GO.

For some reason i cant get the Euro to go past 192 but its a bit better in the bahamas region. Shows pressures lowering more than before with a nice ridge to the north. For Sept its not much, but its all we got, lol. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022091212/slp8.png

If anything is there in 7 days the Euro shows an awesome pattern. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022091112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

Not the best look for a memorable October. Maybe the wheel will show up.

Early end to the season still on the table. Euro shows 2 storms forming in the East Pac. This "burst" of activity wasnt much. A storm that had to form from a non tropical low near greenland and another one that had to escape the tropics. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022091012/slp8.png The east coast trof hasnt budged all season.