ldub23

Hopefully this will be the 1 storm of the season. Can it survive the next 5 days?

Also far weaker and it has nothing else but very high pressures in the tropics. Its 1009mb at hour 222. I seriously doubt it can even be that "strong" The little thing east of bermuda might end up the strongest storm of the season. Way too dry. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr Everytime i get mocked the tropics shut down. Here is Sept 13 on the GFS. As i suspected a winterlike pattern would set in early giving an early end to the cane season. VERY STRONG LOW AND FRONT. One question though. Can a season end early if it never started? And there you are. JB now agreeing with me about a cooler than normal Sept and Oct but never fear!! There will be a feeding frenzy in the tropics( who cares if there is? It sure as hell aint gonna be near the US) And there you are. ****11/7/3 for 2023 cane season. Much more active with several actual trackable storms. *****My winter prediction is 150% normal snowfall from RIC to BOS. And there you are.

I guess we will find out soon enough if it even survives. If it survives it gets close enough so small changes could mean a hit. One cautionary note as usual. Euro shows nothing in front of it and just a couple of weak lows behind it. Is this the 1 storm for the season or will the dry air choke it out? GFS delaying development yet again. Maybe we should wait to see if it can develop before we worry about where its going. ******GFS much much weaker. Never gets it below 1002 mb then takes the weak nothing low to meet another weak low in a mid-atlantic dance to nowheresville. 0/0/0 Aug still in play and now we have to wonder when a real cane will form. GFS still has the gom cane. And there you are. This isnt the look i would want to see for a disturbance to intensify into a major hurricane. Very chaotic with cloud fragments everywhere. Im thinking Hugo looked a bit better at this position And there you are.

I wish i could take the Euro, but it is delaying development and its quite a bit weaker than 12Z. All in all rather disappointing. If the Euro storm is also a phantom then i think its time to hope and pray the el nino is weak next cane season so we have a cane season. We will see if it can survive.

18Z GFS much weaker with the super cane and far weaker with the other storm, if it ever forms. I think drying up and doing nothing is more likely than a strong recurving cane. Basically its unlikely the GFS supercane will happen and also unlikely the Euro threat to the US will happen. Peak season in a season that was supposed to be hyperactive and we have nothing of interest. At 372 the GFS has delayed once again the development of the Euro supercane and in any case its a nothing bebopping. A very weak low in the central GOM. Very unimpressive. Here is what the Euro says is going to be a US threat and supercane. Its going to be a hard road just to survive

Not at all impressed with the 12Z GFS. Still has what i think is a phantom supercane now back to hitting Mexico. The other storm the Euro agreed with is much weaker and is basically a nothing now bebopping out to sea. The run ends with a couple of weak lows here and there. Overall for the peak of the season that was supposed to be hyperactive there are no threats. If somehow the GFS supercane does form then i will eat 3 whole grain crossaints. The GFS supercane isnt that far off now. Something should be showing up soon thats the reason for it to form. The lead disturbance in the Atlantic may well just dry up. It has that look.

Euro finally shows a possible threat at 240 High in the right place. This would likely be a monster if it gets over water. gfs has something similar but then it develops some odd low that causes the cane to bebop NE. Meanwhile the GFS is alone in forming the supercane once more These are 2 totally different storms. Here is the same storm the euro is showing You can see it in the lower right. If the GFS didnt have the supercane it would likely have the other cane as a real threat. Sadly the gfs also is showing a hyperactive east pac. 06Z has the cane slightly further west. If not for the phantom supercane this would be a real threat as all the models are now developing it.

Naturally i see it a bit differently. I am discounting the Texas cane and the MDR still seems like the sahara. At 276 its little different from this It does show this 16 days from now, but again 16 days from now. Other than a Texas cane i think is unlikely to happen it really isnt showing considering its peak in a season that was supposed to be hyperactive. ***And again i apologize for not replying to people. I realize it makes me appear an even bigger arse than the arse that i am. With 5 posts a day i simply cant reply.

Surprise!! Im not too optimistic on the MDR. Also the hurricane the GFS has hitting Texas seems rather unlikely to me. I still think the best possibility is for a brief storm to form just off the African coast then bebop north. If it suddenly decides to head west its going to have a hell of a time surviving. *** Maybe the upper low NE of the bahamas will become something weak, but it would also bebop.

One consistent thing is everything keeps getting pushed back and back and back and the ridge is gone gone gone. Plenty of dry air in the Sahara And this is with phase2 MJO. Can we sue the MJO for breach of contract? 1 myth i would like to correct. Waves dont sacrifice themselves and "moisten" up the environment for future waves. That can only happen if the amount of dry air in the Sahara is static. When the dry air just keeps being replaced any moisture a wave will bring is literally no more than spitting in the ocean. The dry air being flooded in dwarfs the tiny amount of moisture with a single wave. Its come down now to a 1 storm season. 0/0/0 Aug is becoming more likely. I wouldnt expect that much in Sept. Its as favorable as it can be now and the Sahara is totally dead. As sept rolls in the good MJO is headed out. I guess the good news is how much worse can it get?

Sadly, it appears the 18Z GFS dropped everything east of the islands. Maybe the supercane will form but im always skeptical in a situation like this. But maybe this is our 1 storm season.

At least its not 15 days away in fantasyland. In this case we should see immediately on satellite if its real or not. JB's cat isnt impressed so that might be a bad sign.

I think we are down now to a 1 storm scenario now. Can a storm fight thru the Sahara and somehow find a place to develop and threaten the coast? By the way, as expected the Euro is showing my "Who gives a damn storm". If its accurate it will either bebop or just die. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

I guess we will see if it shows up on the Euro shortly. One bad sign is it doesnt do anything on the GFS until it escapes the tropics. Will it make it all the way across with any gas left to try to develop off the SE? Other than that everything else is once again delayed. If this craps out then 0/0/0 Aug looks golden. Getting from 30 to 70 thru all this hostility will be fun to watch but what the heck, at least for now its a wave with showers. I personally would have waited a few days to call it an invest just to see if it survives. 2 PTC's already couldnt make it. You can see the Cat5 TUTT ne of PR. 2 things will happen. It will vamoose and give 90L a slight chance or it sits right there and knocks the snot out of 90L. If that TUTT is still there in 4 days then development drops to 0/0 Andy isnt terribly optimistic for 90L, and peak season cancel? Euro bows to King TUTT and the bone dry air. Nothing thru 192 from 90L. I think we are being punked about this being MJO phase 2, lol. Yea, Euro shows something weak at 192 but that will likely get pushed back and it still has tha Cat 5 TUTT to get thru. I really think there was no need to call this an invest. Maybe they are just bored. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr I dont think i have ever seen a bigger nothing season than this year. Prospects overall dont look good. For "homebrews" you need several things. A-waves that can hold together and make it to the waters off the SE coast. Not this season B-High pressure locked in the NW ATL. We have low pressure. C-The area just off Africa offers the best chance for something to develop but who cares? I apologize for posting about the entire tropics here but i only have 5 posts. I will be back in the other thread after this. I doubt 90L will be worth posting about. I think the green stuff East of FLA is 90L. On satellite it appears to be rapidly drying up for now.

*Raises hand. I remain very unimpressed. It also looks like the East Pac is going to get active again flooding the Sahara with even more shear. GA is right though, for the first time in a very long time there is a wave in the Sahara with a shower!! Andy brings up a good point. Everything seems to be a "go" and he doesnt even mention the toasty SST'S yet the Sahara remains sitting on the toilet constipated as hell. I have already made that conclusion. NEVER FEAR!!! JB is once again predicting hyperactive. With things so dead slow would 1 TD that quickly dissipates count as hyperactive? Finally i have my preliminary forecast for 2023. I will certainly make revisions but there are some indications the el nino may not be terribly strong so im going with 11/7/3. El nino or not conditions in the Sahara cant be as bad as this season.

yea, and while 12Z has a hurricane its delaying things once more by developing another wave further back in Africa. At this rate it wont be till Oct for the super favorable to get here. As i said before even in the deadest of dead seasons we had waves with showers to track that got across the Atlantic. Lets go for the big records!!! 0/0/0 Sept and no canes. By the way the wave that miraculously develops does so encased in bone dry air. Please, i beg you tropical Gods, give me a shower i can track across the Atlantic. The 2 best quotes of this season will be DT'S post referenced below "August will be Sideways" and JB issuing a "Fast and Furious Watch" 3 weeks ago. Sorry i have to keep adding to my awesomely brilliant posts but i can only grace you with awesomeness 5 times a day In the interest of fairness here is some "good" news.

Everytime i get mocked the tropical Gods respond, lol. Im declaring victory. The season isnt going to be hyper active or even "active". Normal at best at this point. As far as the rest of the season lets hope we can get 6 canes and 2 majors. *Hopefully 06Z will be back to showing a few clumps of clouds at least. Even in dead seasons we used to get waves with showers. Yesterday i was skeptical because right after the twin super canes the models went back to nothing and bone dry air after the 2 canes. *As far as the ensembles go the euro also shows nothing and its now very realistic we go 0/0/0 thru Aug. *****2 important records within reach now. Tying the least active Aug and longest period between named storms. 2 more tidbits of info. A-This was supposed to be a hyperactive season. Also lots of "homebrew" with rapid intensification close to the coast. We have had 2 PTC'S and neither could even form a closed circ. B-As pointed out the 06Z shows another super cane. But look behind it. There is nothing following it, not even a strong wave. At season peak with the conditions apparently favorable enough for a super cane to form nothing else does? This tells me 1 of 2 things. The model is wrong and the initial cane is yet another phantom, or the conditions have changed and at 12Z the model will be decidedly more active.

2 into 1? Dont look at the 18Z gfs then. I realize this is highly unlikely to happen. Even in the most active seasons you dont see this. A bit later 2 potential major hurricanes approaching the US coast 600 miles apart on the same day? Call an ambulance for JB!! I think he just fainted.

Mocking me hasnt worked out that well so far this season, lol. Now you have cursed the next wave as well. I have doubts it will amount to anything. Greg Postel was talking about it and then ended with saying there is no guarantee conditions will be any more favorable in a week than they are now. Its possible it could be a nothing storm that croaks soon after developing. WHERE'S THE BEEF?

As expected in a dead season it appears to have been dropped by the GFS and Euro due to the continued hideous conditions. Not a surprise. Euro has another low later but will be dropped within a day. GFS has some slop here and there but basically nothing. Dead City. As far as the BOC, just whats expected in a dead season. Nothing can get across the Sahara. Pukeworthy season. I cant remember a season where we didnt even have waves to track *** Please tropical Gods dont mess up the 0/0/0 Aug with a BOC nothing.

It brings back the cane it dropped. Almost a good enough pattern. 30 hours later it hasnt moved a whole lot and looks to get trapped under the high

Another 5 yard false start penalty or finally the real deal? Check the lower right. Its put up or shut up time

This was issued Aug 09 and its been dead since then. I have averaged out the numbers. 8.5 hurricanes, 4 majors, 138 ace for the remainder of the season. All i can say is if we get to these numbers it will be a wild ride indeed. Im doubtful, but read for yourselves. https://www.cfact.org/2022/08/18/2022-hurricane-update/ "I think we will see a fast and furious period from mid and late August into early September, followed by a lull and then another active period. I don’t have any below normal risk impact areas, though there certainly will be when the season is looked at retrospectively." Mid to late Aug is here and no canes, no majors.

As i suspected it has no Atlantic super cane nor GOM super cane. It does have a ton of bone dry air everywhere with rather high pressures in the tropics. All i need to do is look at this picture to know the pattern shows zippo signs of change. We have a winter time storm hitting Maine, low pressure locked over the NW ATL, chaos in the west ATL(Trofs and shear) no clouds in the deep tropics, and oodles doodles of bone dry air. When this satellite map has a well formed cane west of 65 and south of 25 with a west component in its direction then wake me up. This is getting ridiculous. Unless or until the euro can confirm what the GFS is fantisizing about then its not happening. The time for hints, signs, and model storms is over. All Clear on the Western Front. Can someone please let me know where that damn hurricane season switch is? I will gladly turn it to the "ON" position. I would love to be wrong and have something to track other than the latest dry air surge or east coast trof. WHERE'S THE BEEF?? Euro says we are getting close to a 0/0/0 Aug. This tweet is from yesterday. Its clear now this wave will croak like 97L did.

We will see. The Atlantic super cane is a "ghost" of its former self at 12Z and if i remember correctly back in June the GFS insisted a major cane was going to hit the gulf coast. It didnt form, much less hit anything.. Mid day Euro will be out shortly. If it shows nothing at 240 then its doubtful anything of note will form.