ldub23

This idiot seems to agree with me. I said a month ago Sept would be suppressed. We are all often wrong including those who said the pattern in the peak season was "ominous" for the east coast. Turned out just the opposite.

GFS and EURO still say i am right. Horrid conditions.

True, but the GFS up till now has been very enthusiastic about this possible low. Its tough for anything to get too strong near the US when low pressure is locked over the NW ATL.

Good news is the 18z GFS is much weaker and shows a cat1 into LA.

Atlantic still barren with horrid conditions. GFS dropped the cane off SC but stil has a monster in the GOM. Euro has rain showers.

GFS shows some weak action in the GOM in 10 days while the euro has this: Here is the gfs. GOM cane and a weak cat1 forming off SC Couldnt ask for a more different scenario. If everyone wants please vote on which one will happen.

The Euro and GFS seem to disagree with you. Atlantic barren at peak season.

England?

JB jumps on the dead sept train. I didnt think it would happen when the consensus was the east coast was at risk. Just the opposite pattern set up. Either a recurve or just too hostile for anything. My guess is the negative NAO will reverse just in time for winter however. Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi·1hJuly 27 made forecastfor hyper August in tropics. I think we can agree it had merit. Well now some good news! Opposite pattern setting up so September much less active relative to averages as far impact, Does not mean nothing at all, but relative to averages less than Aug

I read that and figured JB would be all excited and be tweeting away. I checked and as usual when he sees nothing to tweet about he has a bunch of past hurricane tweets.

Just delayed a month. Larry is about it and i dont really care about recurvers, sort of like mid atlantic snow lovers dont care about blizzards in Manitoba.

Cool. Except for a recurver to nowhere sept is quite dead on the models. Unless a strong high builds into the NW ATL and stays locked the season is pretty much over.

Just delayed. Sept looks to be rather slow even with a strong recurver.

Still dont think "it" deserved to be named.

Totally mystified as to why it was named.

They are seriously calling that totally devoid of convection thing a tropical storm. They really are trying to jack up numbers.

Reminds me of the 1992 season and Andrew. It was a 1 storm season. Right now we have 2 other tropical systems and they are both in horrid conditions.

Hard to boil water without power.

As usually happens when a storm is deepening upon landfall the wind damage is much greater. A 125 mph cane deepening at landfall is far worse than a weakening 125 mph cane at landfall.

110 max 105 landfall 970mb Morgan city sounds good.

Who knows. If the Nao goes positive and Ida gets trapped off the southeast coast then it could regenerate and head north. Also, that cane on the Euro might move a bit more west.

This is an interesting look. The negative NAO looks to be breaking down and i think thats the remains of Ida off the southeast coast. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021082800/slp8.png

JB is really going to be bummed if this one doesnt rapidly intesnify. He predicted Henri would and it didnt. I think its moving way too fast to be more than a cat1 and the further east it goes the weaker it will be.

Probably because its moving so much faster and is quite a bit weaker. Moving that fast will likely mean it wont take advantage of what may be favorable conditions. Lets see if 0z slows it back down or speeds it up even more.