ldub23

Good thing we are in a La Nina or the east pac would be hyperactive. Think we will see something like this in the Atlantic this season?

I agree with JB here IF we do have a Newfoundland wheel. The wheel is very important for cane season and winter. IF there really is a wheel then the US coast will be at risk and a big east coast season usually means a cold stormy winter.

You might be right but now some are pushing the season back to late Aug. And again, last season while i said the pattern was not an east coast pattern we still had people saying there was going to be a nw atl ridge which never happened. As far as the "activity" so far its the kind of stuff you typically see in weak seasons. Im hoping you are right. The reason the central gom coast thing isnt happening is because of the overall pattern. Low pressure north of it meant it couldnt sit and consolidate. That has to reverse if predictions of an active season still have a chance. Mr Cosgrove is right that CSU is too high. Just about everyone will have to start cutting numbers. I got this from Larry for July 26 and it shows a reinforcement of the huge eastern trof. No sign of a reversal, until winter anyway, lol. Nothing of interest will develop with that winterlike pattern.

Looking at everything today i think forecasters numbers will start coming down in hurricanes and majors. If i remember right last year there was also supposed to be a big ridge with the east coast at risk with a season lasting well into Nov. There was no ridge, everything of note was wide right of the east coast and the season ended in Sept.

No change in the pattern so far. I know all the experts insist on a very active season. I have seen maps of the euro showing a high pressure ridge over the nw ATL for aug-oct. This winter type pattern will have to reverse first. That is very protective of the whole coastline for anything of note.

We will see. Will the pattern reverse? It didnt last year. With low pressure over the northeast it will be rather tame like last year. All we can wait for is if 1 storm can make it thru like last season.

This is the pattern i expect for the hurricane season. While its always possible 1 odd storm can make it thru the coast should be safe with another early ending season

Looks to me we are headed for low pressure locking in over the northeast with a big east coast trof. Weak season like last year looking more likely.

I think it will be a repeat of the dead 2021 season with a big east coast trof and very early end to the season. Maybe 1 storm will be memorable.

A better trend for sure

Snows for awhile but its mostly above freezing

Still there at 12Z

Lt snow in Newport news. Hoping for a cartopper but its rather warm and light.

Radar seems to be filling in around central VA. 1-2 inches tonight?

Latest Nam gives me 3 and ric a bit more.

GFS continues to like central VA. I need a 50 mile SE trend.

2 GFS runs in a row of RIC getting 6+.

If i can get 3 inches out of this one i will be at a foot for the season

It has returned!!!!! GFS is much improved and moving to the Euro

The storm returned big time on the euro. 12+ for Ric? Still snowing after this

It shall return.

Less than 10 days away