ldub23

"This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin." You would hope they are going to change because they cant get any worse. Its very basic. There is a massive east coast trof displacing high pressure too far south turning the Atlantic into more of the sahara than the sahara is. Until that changes i agree we can ignore 2013, but look carefully at 1983, 1972. And lets take out November because that can be dead even in active seasons. What is the longest time between invests? Should we have a contest on when the next invest will be designated?

0Z was a bit less active. East pac still cranking plus the JB-o-meter didnt go off. In a dead season like 2022 this is much more likely. A weak storm forming from a mid-latitude trof. With the east pac in overdrive we have el nino shear in the west carib and gom so until the east pac acts like a la nina a 938mb cane isnt likely in the GOM This map also shows the overall pattern hasnt changed one iota. No wheel, no euro super ridge just a continuation of the mega east coast trof with dry air flooding the tropics.

Like i was saying, the real Sahara has more moisture. Could CSU go 0/0/0 for the rest of the "season"? Obviously something will develop, most likely a nothing in the far east ATL that quickly either croaks of thirst or bebops north. Time to start thinking about 1983. There wont be an Alicia though, but maybe a weak storm will form in the western GOM. In a season that was as weak as the 2022 season look to the extreme east or west for something to form. Hard to imagine the real Sahara having less of a probablity of a depression to form. We need a contest, "Will there be an invest in Aug"? +

I was most likely saying thank god Clinton is almost gone. As far as the season itself i seem to remember i was a bit optimistic. I cant remember the overall pattern that season but i know right now and at least thru aug 14 the Atlantic Sahara and the real Sahara will be equally dry. Here is a satellite animation of 1999 and it sure appears there was much more moisture in the tropics. *Floyd flooded my house and car Here is the Atlantic Sahara today. It may well be drier than the real sahara.

Good article in SAL. Personally i think this season was dead due to the High being displaced too far south. Euro pretty dead thru Aug. Shows some activity in Sept but that might just be the model thinking something should be happening. 8/3/1 CSU on aug 04. https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/blame-it-on-the-dust?utm_source=email

Might be lucky to have anything on the map on aug 28. Here is what i mean about the super mega east coast trof displacing high pressure too far south resulting in a bone dry Atlantic If you want a cane season this year then pray long and hard the Iron Steel trof of immense magnitude can be broken. High pressure is simply too far south in the Atlantic. 0/0/0 is still a real possibility for Aug. 1983 might seem active compared to this season. Also, with this pattern the East pac will stay active which means el nino like shear in the Atlantic.. Major hurricane? Its going to be hard enough to get an invest. This has been the summer long pattern and patterns like this dont break easily which is also why i am confident of an early ending season. When the pattern does break it will be due to larger intrusions of cool dry canadian air blasting off the east coast later in Sept. And again in the interest of reporting all the news the euro still insists on replacing the mega trof with a mega ridge. Lets hope so

In the interests of presenting all the news, the JB-o-meter has started back up Also for the first time it appears a front makes it thru texas

This certainly isnt going to be a repeat of the hyperactive 1985. US is not at risk. Same pattern no change. Low pressure in the Northeast, mega east coast trof, and yet another East Pac cane. August has gone from sideways to rightside up. I have to save my posts. In reference to the post from cptcatz, Hints?? We were supposed to be having a hyperactive season. Hints in Aug dont cut it. And thats 0Z, 6Z is somewhat less impressive.

JB bringing up the analog of 2003. Is he setting up the European heat for his mega bust forecast. I expect CSU will use 2003 when they drastically cut numbers next week. Isabel managed to get thru and other than that 2003 was a nothing season for the US. Give me an el nino or give me death!! I would argue its dead in Aug because high pressure is displaced too far south making the Atlantic the Sahara. Oh, and the JB-o-meter had a tweet storm today and not a peep about the tropics. I just did some checking. The actual sahara desert has the same amount of tropical activity as the new Atlantic Sahara. Zero.

More people are talking about a 2013 type bust now. It would not surprise me if August is totally barren now. Maybe 1 sheared weak nothing but the 2 places to look when a season is dead are also unfavorable. Its really hard to get a weak storm on an old front off the SE coast when there is a super mega east coast trof. And the subtropics are a bit cool. 0/0/0 in Aug is a real possibility One bit of good news is the SST'S arent exactly the same as now. This is july 29 2013

The big reason why the Atlantic is the Sahara now is due to the low pressure over the NW ATL. Oh, the JB-o-meter has gone totally silent. Not good

The horrid pattern just keeps getting re-inforced. The strongest winterlike trof yet rams off the east coast. No sign of the wheel or the Euros's phantom ridge.

Could this end up being the deadest of dead seasons? Another person joins the bandwagon. Beginning of the season now pushed back to sometime in Sept. Has the cane season began and ended in the same month? I would advise CSU to cut numbers down to 10/3/1, but thats only assuming the season actually keeps going in OCT which seems unlikely. Why were the forecasters so horribly wrong about this season? Please chime in on why they did such a horrible job. If this is what we get in a La Nina please for all thats holy give us a super el nino next season. It cant possibly be any deader than this season was. I think the best idea is for forecasters to dump trying to forecast a season in advance. Instead, just look at the pattern after the start of the season. I was wondering back in early june where all the hype was coming from when it seemed rather obvious the overall pattern was NOT going to produce a season of note. This season was quite dead. Lets hope next season has a bit of moisture in the tropics. Aug is clearly not going to be sideways. CSU should at least cut their forecast in half. Now we wait to see when JB says he was wrong as well. This might be the most active the Atlantic looks till SEPT 15.

My point would be 1975 and 2000 werent what was advertised by most if not all the seasonal forecasters. If we do have another 1975 or 2000 then i will feel vindicated im my ideas.

Well, by all means show us some hyperactive maps. MJO, MJO, Where for art thou, MJO? July? The desert goes all the way till the heart of the season. Now it looks like the season wont begin till after sept 08. Is it safe to say that August isnt going to be sideways, unless you are looking at a calendar upside down and August in the Atlantic resembles February. What that map tells me is we will see a few weak nothings try to spin up just off the african coast then die of thirst as they hit the Sahara or waves will come off too far north to mean anything to anyone. Please i hope for an el nino next season, it cant be worse than the last 2 seasons. We can still hang our hatts on the possibilty of a 1 storm season and something managing to find a window of moisture in a sea of sand. I think CSU comes out with an update on Aug 04. Much lower numbers coming. I still think the European heatwave will be seen by forecasters like CSU for the reason the season died.

Euro says the Sahara desert has come to the Atlantic. Is this the look of a hyperactive season?

I dont mind the piling on. If im right like last year i will be crowing. If im wrong and CSU's numbers verify then i will eat the crow. I use this 16 day map because my idea of a hurricane season is a hurricane able to get into the picture and be a threat to the US. Anything else i ignore( like east coast snow lovers ignore blizzards in Alberta)

One positive thing today is the predicted pattern in 16 days. If we can just get this to lock in till November.

Heat returning to Europe? This might be the reason after the season people use for busted high cane numbers. Everything is interconnected and its possible the same pattern baking Europe is putting a tight snug lid on the tropics. It makes sense that with a super ridge locked in over Europe it would also have the effect of pumping super duper bone dry dusty air into the tropics. It is rather amazing with a supposed favorable MJO its almost impossible for a tropical cloud to form. If i remember right 2003 had a European heat wave with the ATL having alot of weak sauce and out to sea nothings. Like last season it was a 1 storm season with Isabel. Can 1 storm find great conditions in an overall horrid ATL this season? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Atlantic_hurricane_season

I wouldnt say every season. Last season when people were saying it was going to be an east coast season and a long lasting season i disagreed and it wasnt. Right now the MJO is supposedly favorable yet nothing is happening. The MJO isnt going to stay favorable and if it goes negative in mid aug the season might not start till mid sept. If the MJO is favorable it sure isnt producing any clouds. If anyone still thinks its going to be an active season please chime in. Here is the 1933 hurricane season animation. How could a season like that or 2004/05 happen? 2 cat4's so close to each other.

East Pac still looks active. With the start of the season pushed back till at least late Aug I still dont think August will be sideways. Usually a dead West Pac is good for the ATL but not so far. If the West Pac comes alive The start of the season might be pushed back to Sept.

Atlantic has possible disturbances while the east pac has hurricanes. I do think August will be rightside up, not sideways

Im not sure August is going to be sideways. CFS seems to indicate the expected pushing back to the start of the season to late August now. By then we will likely have a rather strong eastern trof. Just my opinion but anyone who was forecasting a big US impact season needs to start rethinking. One key indicator i use is the JB-o-meter. When he ignores the tropics in his tweets thats a negative sign. Maybe things will be more interesting if we have an el nino next season.

He changed that a bit to say it goes sideways in August. No change in the pattern as of aug 04. Protective offshore trof, low pressure in northeast. If the euros's big ridge and jb's wheel are going to appear we need to see a pattern reversal rather soon. Another hurricane in the east pac though

Maybe things will be going sideways but there will still be nothing of note as long as the eastern super trof is in full force and effect and this map with US protective low pressure over the NW ATL shows absolutely no change in the pattern. No sign at all of the EURO'S NW ATL ridge or JB's newfoundland wheel. They were predicted last season as well and never showed up. This wintertime pattern also means an early end to a late starting season unless we have a rather unlikely pattern reversal. Getting a bit late for that. This will be a tough nut to crack for things to go sideways. On this satellite picture you can see the offshore protective trof while we can see yet another reinforcement on the way. To me things still appear rightside up.