ldub23
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Everything posted by ldub23
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GFS keeps it very weak. 1009mb at "landfall". I think conditions might not be all that favorable in the GOM.
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Wow.
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Lets see if the Euro starts showing something.
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East pac doing much better.
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Fred looks like its coming apart before it hits the mountains. I think JB was a bit premature talking about Katrina.
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If all we get out of phase 2 MJO is dead fred and nothing else Sept will be really bad http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081100/slp8.png
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I said AUG will have 1 or 2 weak storms.
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Euro shows nothing after Fred. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081000/slp8.png
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JB mentions Katrina!!
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Yea, very weak. MJO phase 2 needs to get its act together.
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Euro has a green dot south of PR. Deadsville http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021080900/slp2.png
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Doesnt appear the Euro shows anything.
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When JB starts lowering his numbers its means alot. Its like when he starts cutting his winter snowfall totals, you know its done. Of course an Andrew is always possible like 1 big snow in an otherwise very warm winter.
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GFS continues to show a hyper active el nino like east pac. My guess is 1 or 2 very weak quickly dissapating storms this month. 2 or 3 in Sept. El Nino like seasons dont usually have too much of interest. Maybe oct will be busier but by then winter is coming and its just not that interesting.
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click on the link to his forecast and find out. Im amazed NOAA went so high. When JB starts lowering his numbers its only the beginning. Cant get a decent season in the ATL with a hyper active east pac.
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JB has lowered his numbers. Probably still way too high. Pretty avg season, probably will be below avg and a dead MDR. https://www.weatherbell.com/august-1-hurricane-season-update
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But the east pac is rip roaring. And that icon model shows storm after storm in the east pac so i think that storm headed to florida is a phantom.
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Yea, i am. Its shows nothing on the ATL side.
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First half of August is deadsville and with 2 hurricanes in the east pac might have to wait till sept for anything. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021080600/slp8.png
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No sign the east pac is going to shut down. Just the opposite.
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I suppose but still really dry. I have been reading sept will be suppressed and Aug isnt exactly active.
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A few waves but conditions arent improving. Waves were stronger in June.
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Could be a concern for FLA but by Oct i tune out. Fla could get hit by a big one in OCT. aug/sept might dead but a fairly active oct.
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Dead sept and maybe something in AUG?
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I dont know. I think my numbers were way too high.
