ldub23
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Everything posted by ldub23
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Perhaps, but i dont think pre-season forecasts of a hyper active season took this in consideration. Mdr totally engulfed in bone dry air. I read the gfs does show a wave finally developing in the Boc but the story of the season, a very hostile MDR continues.
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I dont think they have been terrible. Everything in the MDR has been weak and struggling. 12Z euro shows no organized storms other than laura. So far i think the models have done quite well. The GFS and EURO have shown a dead MDR and thats what we have so far.
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Backed way off of that. Sal isnt backing off though. 12Z gfs shows basically nothing thru peak while euro is showing "vigourous waves". Lets see if the afternoon euro actually shows a well developed storm in the MDR.
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JB says it isnt in a favorable state except for very in close development like ike and hanna did just before landfall. He says we are in phase 8/1 but the favorable phases are coming. 2 days ago but still in the same phase.
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I think the double trouble thing is overblown. Marco has alot of shear and dry air to deal with. Dont think it will be a big deal at all. Laura may or may not be. If it goes over all the mountains possible to get to the gom its going to be a mess and that may mean conditions in the gom wont be as favorable as forecasted now. Time will tell.
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This is something to watch
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after marco, 7/2/1. If laura becomes a cane season total 20/5/1. If laura doesnt become a cane 20/4/1
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Euro showing nothing out thru 192. We are in peak now. Euro continues to show deep low pressure over se canada which forces the high in a position to flood the atlantic with SAL. Euro shows nothing coming of 13 and little from 14. Could be 12/2/0 soon as 13 might not get a name. 18Z gfs just about identical. Deep low over se canada and no doubt some big SAL outbreaks.
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GFS at 198 Euro at 192 Nothing. The CV season only last so long. When are the favorable conditions coming? To be fair, here is the ICON model at 120 But when the gfs and euro agree i tend to go with that. They dont do anything with the new wave coming off africa either. I think the euro turns into a weak td that falls apart once again over the very warm tropical atlantic. I will be delighted to post maps showing monster canes. Can someone just explain when the favorable conditions are coming? An awful lot of very dry air is suffocating 98L right now. There is an interesting westerly wave moving off NC right now. Probably nothing but looks cool 12Z GFS absolutely nothing from 97 or 98. Some showers. the green stuff off the fla west coast is 98, the green stuff in the nw gom is 97. JB says just wait 10 more days Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 2h Atlantic systems slow to develop as Phase 8/1 MJO are only favorable in close. However We are headed for 2/3. Front 2 still can develop, but have to wait till further west, The MJO goes into 2 in about 10 days and is likely to crawl thru 2/3 for 10-15 day after IMO. 18Z GFS thru aug 28. nothing at all I have never been a big fan of atlantic development when there is a huge low over se canada. High too far south and that is a perfect set up for big SAL outbreaks. At least JB took the time to say when conditions will be favorable. 10 more days. Are those josies remnants off florida? Aug 29 on GFS. Bone dry el nino look. Nothing will cross that intact.I know sst's dont bear it out but atlantic conditions sure are el nino'ish Dont say i never post monster cane pics. Hmon develops 98
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97 and 98L Cancel. Euro dropped development as expected. 2020 in the atlantic is an el nino. I keep hearing about favorble conditions, but no one is telling the invests they are supposed to be monsters. Of course andrew formed in an el nino so stay alert especially as the season nears its end. this is the euro. Not a thing to see. Perhaps one good thing. The sal set-up isnt quite as perfect. However, the large low over se canada sure is a bummer.
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Where exactly are the super favorable conditions? All i see is ultra bone dry air, massive shear, and super upper lows. Weak sauce at best. Maybe if 98L can survive the super unfavorable conditions and stay intact as a wave it might find a window somewhere. My guess is the Euro will completely drop 98L this afternoon. I still hold out hope sept 20-oct 10 Might be a little better and a real storm might form. This remains an el nino pattern no matter what SST's are. If you showed me this picture and asked me el nino or la nina i would say strong el nino. Shear from the east pac will kill off 97L. 12Z gfs very weak. I pay no attn to the canadian. For the peak of the season and the supposed super favorable conditions the GFS makes josephine look like a cat5 compared to 97 and 98L. They are barely blips.
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Trends today are for more struggling weak sauce.
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12z Alot weaker. No hurricanes anywhere. More of the same weaksauce. East pac active causing tons of shear. A weak sauce low in n gom. I guess thats 97L, nothing but a couple of gusty showers. Maybe that other weak sauce right behind it is 98L. Peak season and nothing. Very hostile everywhere. Dont care what sst's are, this is classic el nino. Atlantic tutts galore, shear abundant, and dry air like a desert bone.
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Nothing really has changed. EXCEPT THIS!!!!!!!!
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Hopefully something gets going All you need to do is look at that picture and its clear just how hostile the atlantic is. The el nino pacific looks good but right now shear and dry air is crushing the atlantic. Alot of forecasts are down the drain unless things change. Maybe some moisture will get to the atlantic and the shear will drop. Will be interesting to see if 97L can develop. Will be more interesting to watch than josephine.
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Looks rather weak to me but its better than the totally dead GFS.
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GFS says neither wave will do anything. Dead thru Aug and the el nino in the atlantic has no end.
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At least JB is excited. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 29m The raging Weatherbull is loose on http://Weatherbell.com premium showing the unnamed feature that will lash Cape Cod the islands with tropical storm force wind and rain And then it shows WHY THE REAL HURRICANE SEASON IS ABOUT TO BEGIN, ( IMO)BUCKLE UP
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GFS and Euro show nothing
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I have been reading the GFS shows the MJO doesnt get favorable in the atlantic thru its whole run. Easterly waves arent doing anything but who knows how many weak storms the westerly waves coming off virginia will produce. not until the flood pattern ends will the season get active but by then it may be very late. Still think sept20-oct 10 might have a few real storms. This just shows how meaningless SST's are.
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That already occurred the last week of July and first week of August. We had a two week stretch that had two hurricane landfalls. Were conditions perfect for a major? No, but Hanna would have been a major given 6 to 12 more hours over the western GOM. It was a very well-developed hurricane intensifying right up to landfall with a symmetrical eyewall. Would that being a major hurricane at landfall really change the conversation about this quieter stretch? Not really in my opinion. We'd still have some struggling systems until conditions flip to more favorable in the coming weeks. Again, it's August 13th. I see that alot about "if it just had a few more hours over water". Maybe conditions were so bad over the water that it takes the shape of the coast for a little intensification just before landfall and if it had stayed over water longer it would still be a cat 1.
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Just looking at that you would think we have an el nino. Moisture, low pressure and no windshear in the east pac, dry air, shear, and above normal pressure in the MDR.. Thats also a perfect set up for more huge SAL outbreaks. Sal is going to be going strong with that set up. High pressures much too far south. Going out further it says the first half of the CV season is dead. Perhaps when the flood pattern ends we may have a mini-burst from sept 20-oct 10 if the conditions ever become favorable.
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GFS EURO still show nothing. Joe Bastardi says we may get laura right behind kyle. another very weak low. Just when are the super favorable conditions going to arrive? CV season doesnt last but so long.
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It didnt age fast enough!!
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The 10 named storms have averaged about 2.3 ace per storm. This is not 2005. Joesephine is going to fall apart over very warm water. 12z GFS says the lid isnt coming off.
