ldub23
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Everything posted by ldub23
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GFS continues to show a hyper active el nino like east pac. My guess is 1 or 2 very weak quickly dissapating storms this month. 2 or 3 in Sept. El Nino like seasons dont usually have too much of interest. Maybe oct will be busier but by then winter is coming and its just not that interesting.
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click on the link to his forecast and find out. Im amazed NOAA went so high. When JB starts lowering his numbers its only the beginning. Cant get a decent season in the ATL with a hyper active east pac.
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JB has lowered his numbers. Probably still way too high. Pretty avg season, probably will be below avg and a dead MDR. https://www.weatherbell.com/august-1-hurricane-season-update
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But the east pac is rip roaring. And that icon model shows storm after storm in the east pac so i think that storm headed to florida is a phantom.
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Yea, i am. Its shows nothing on the ATL side.
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First half of August is deadsville and with 2 hurricanes in the east pac might have to wait till sept for anything. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021080600/slp8.png
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No sign the east pac is going to shut down. Just the opposite.
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I suppose but still really dry. I have been reading sept will be suppressed and Aug isnt exactly active.
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A few waves but conditions arent improving. Waves were stronger in June.
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Could be a concern for FLA but by Oct i tune out. Fla could get hit by a big one in OCT. aug/sept might dead but a fairly active oct.
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Dead sept and maybe something in AUG?
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I dont know. I think my numbers were way too high.
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I would imagine the weather in most of Hawaii is rather dull. Death valley not the most exciting place either.
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JB will always be optimistic.
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Not surprising it fell apart but it still was amazing it formed in the first place. Aug/sept they most likely wont be falling apart.
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Being july 01 and moving at 28 mph and in the eastern carib i wouldnt be surprised if it opens up and dies out. Euro doesnt exactly show much before it gets to hispaniola
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Busy start.
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Really watch out.
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JB says watch out.
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getting warmer.
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2021 North Atlantic hurricane forecast contest
ldub23 replied to Roger Smith's topic in Tropical Headquarters
I might have to up my numbers. -
LC still bullish. Watch out Carolinas north.
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2021 North Atlantic hurricane forecast contest
ldub23 replied to Roger Smith's topic in Tropical Headquarters
19/11/5 Ace 141 Upped my numbers. I am confident the Atl MDR will warm quite a bit. -
indeed, the 18gfs says what storm?
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Probably end up rain and 55
