ldub23
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Everything posted by ldub23
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Yea, very el nino like. Phase 2 MJO isnt doing much. 2 very very weak lows.
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So is that finally going to end the constant flood here? Phase2 MJO still not producing anything of note.
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JB says grace will be crushed by Fred.
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GFS back to showing it a hurricane. Wind and flooding for many on here.
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Yea GFS dropped it. If this is MJO phase 2 its not doing much.
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12 GFS much weaker. See if Euro shows anything.
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The Euro isnt showing anything. Cant find the 06 gfs to see if it still shows anything. At least something is showing on a model.
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But Supposedly we are in the most favorable phase of the MJO and still basically nothing. Dead Fred and a very struggling 95L.
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Sounds good but something is stopping anything of note developing. I have read in several places we will be back in a suppressive phase in Sept. Seems like an awful small window now for a hurricane to form.
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Here is a 168hr map. Supposedly we are in the super duper favorable num 2 MJO, Just about at peak, and basically nothing. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2021081200/slp28.png Euro http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2021081200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr
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GFS keeps it very weak. 1009mb at "landfall". I think conditions might not be all that favorable in the GOM.
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Wow.
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Lets see if the Euro starts showing something.
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East pac doing much better.
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Fred looks like its coming apart before it hits the mountains. I think JB was a bit premature talking about Katrina.
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If all we get out of phase 2 MJO is dead fred and nothing else Sept will be really bad http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081100/slp8.png
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I said AUG will have 1 or 2 weak storms.
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Euro shows nothing after Fred. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081000/slp8.png
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JB mentions Katrina!!
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Yea, very weak. MJO phase 2 needs to get its act together.
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Euro has a green dot south of PR. Deadsville http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021080900/slp2.png
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Doesnt appear the Euro shows anything.
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When JB starts lowering his numbers its means alot. Its like when he starts cutting his winter snowfall totals, you know its done. Of course an Andrew is always possible like 1 big snow in an otherwise very warm winter.
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GFS continues to show a hyper active el nino like east pac. My guess is 1 or 2 very weak quickly dissapating storms this month. 2 or 3 in Sept. El Nino like seasons dont usually have too much of interest. Maybe oct will be busier but by then winter is coming and its just not that interesting.
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click on the link to his forecast and find out. Im amazed NOAA went so high. When JB starts lowering his numbers its only the beginning. Cant get a decent season in the ATL with a hyper active east pac.
