ldub23
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Everything posted by ldub23
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This UKW is the strongest yet of this La Niña event due to a persistent series of strong EWBs that has been observed during the last few weeks. The arrival of this UKW to the east eq. Pacific should push ENSO solidly into moderate-strong La Niña territory through winter 2020-21. pic.twitter.com/1tVRZdk0DL -- Tyler Stanfield (@TylerJStanfield) October 22, 2020
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Models are really cool now on anything of interest developing.
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GFS now showing nothing. Looks like we have indeed ended the season very early. ACE per storm not at all impressive this season.
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If that stays over water awhile it might develop.
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Very ominous when the Euro and gfs agree
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No US landfalls? I guess you arent counting the 18Z GFS with a major over the US virgin islands and a building positive NAO which means if that monster is still there in 8 days it aint OTS.
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Just goes to show seasonal forecasting has a long way to go. I was reading the NHC disco on little paul and they mentioned how "Parched" the atmosphere is. everything is parched and sheared even though the east pac continues to cool. I still think sept20-oct 10 might offer something interesting but i also think oct 10 is about the end of the season.
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18Z continues the pattern of every other run being more active. The weak storm at 12z in the se carib is now a monster east of the virgin islands, and paulette which had dissipated at 12 z gets trapped north of bermuda. Notice now paulas remains are nw of bermuda instead of ne and the set up for the ridge is for it to be stronger. the monster east of the virgins needs to be watched
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Im just saying the atlantic west of 50 is classic el nino. Even rene looks dried up though maybe as it turns north it will get stronger.
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With satellites and a generous naming group of forecasters 1926 might have had 35/20/12. Average of 20 ace per storm. 1893 as well. We are really insulting 2005 in a big way by making comparisons to this season.
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Euro and GFS this afternoon both coming back to the reality of 2020. Alot of weak sauce with conditions rather hostile. Might not get my major well east of bermuda if there is another one. Now they both give poor paulette a miserable sheared dry death and conditions look horrid west of 50 and rather marginal east of 50. West of 50 thats a picture you expect to see in the 1982 or 83 or 94 or 87, or 72 season. Classic el nino look. Poor Paulette is about to get the dry air/shear combo. It already has the dry prunish look. And given the predictions of Hyper-diaper Super-Duper conditions this season this isnt the picture i would expect to see on sept 08.
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18z GFS gets a major cane much further west.
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06 GFS continues the ominous trend. The set up favors the ridge to continue to build. Low over alaska and what might be a positive NAO.
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GFS a bit more ominous. Shows a disturbance that could get trapped under building ridge over the Northeast. SSW of Bermuda
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Closer than it has been while the GFS basically shows nothing for post peak other than 3 weak struggling far east recurves.
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There is my possible major recurving well east of bermuda.
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Possible
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Just a thought, but all the storms have been very weak, even laura for a long time. Maybe that is a reason. And if they keep naming things like omar who knows how many names, but right now the avg is 3 ace per storm. Ace isnt being exhausted.
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The real GFS basically shows nothing considering peak is going to be gone soon. Shows yet another struggling storm. It does give more weight to my idea that if there is another major this season it will recurve well east of bermuda. Atlantic still very hostile but i still think sept 20-oct 10 will have a chance of 2 well formed storms at the same time, then the season comes to an end. Even JB isnt tweeting about the atlantic. Wait, JB just tweeted about 2 threats to the US next week. Joe Bastardi 45m Deja Vu all over again? http://Weatherbell.com looking at. 2 features not even x'd that we think could develop over the next 5 days and may impact US next week, Join us on the Raging weatherbull on http://weatherbell.com premium. Unlike Nana and Omar, could impact US
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Can someone post the real GFS?
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Doing a bit more than i expected.
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Nana is running into the problems they have all had. A struggle against shear and dry air. If i was told in june that we would have 15 named storms by sept 02 i would have laughed at anyone saying ace would be under 50. I am quite confident ace will be below avg for the season.
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Might be wise to do so. Compared to 06Z the GFS has went dead. I dont think the super favorable conditions have arrived by sept 10. Very dead for peak. Maybe the hurricane showing para is more active. Euro does show 1 actual storm but unless the euro and GFS agree i tend to discount anything and in any case this storm wont get close to the US.
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Im sure they are basing that on the euro and GFS though if they go dead this aft then it wont be so active. What is the real gfs showing at 12Z? not the para.
