ldub23
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Everything posted by ldub23
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Where exactly are the super favorable conditions? All i see is ultra bone dry air, massive shear, and super upper lows. Weak sauce at best. Maybe if 98L can survive the super unfavorable conditions and stay intact as a wave it might find a window somewhere. My guess is the Euro will completely drop 98L this afternoon. I still hold out hope sept 20-oct 10 Might be a little better and a real storm might form. This remains an el nino pattern no matter what SST's are. If you showed me this picture and asked me el nino or la nina i would say strong el nino. Shear from the east pac will kill off 97L. 12Z gfs very weak. I pay no attn to the canadian. For the peak of the season and the supposed super favorable conditions the GFS makes josephine look like a cat5 compared to 97 and 98L. They are barely blips.
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Trends today are for more struggling weak sauce.
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12z Alot weaker. No hurricanes anywhere. More of the same weaksauce. East pac active causing tons of shear. A weak sauce low in n gom. I guess thats 97L, nothing but a couple of gusty showers. Maybe that other weak sauce right behind it is 98L. Peak season and nothing. Very hostile everywhere. Dont care what sst's are, this is classic el nino. Atlantic tutts galore, shear abundant, and dry air like a desert bone.
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Nothing really has changed. EXCEPT THIS!!!!!!!!
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Hopefully something gets going All you need to do is look at that picture and its clear just how hostile the atlantic is. The el nino pacific looks good but right now shear and dry air is crushing the atlantic. Alot of forecasts are down the drain unless things change. Maybe some moisture will get to the atlantic and the shear will drop. Will be interesting to see if 97L can develop. Will be more interesting to watch than josephine.
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Looks rather weak to me but its better than the totally dead GFS.
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GFS says neither wave will do anything. Dead thru Aug and the el nino in the atlantic has no end.
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At least JB is excited. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 29m The raging Weatherbull is loose on http://Weatherbell.com premium showing the unnamed feature that will lash Cape Cod the islands with tropical storm force wind and rain And then it shows WHY THE REAL HURRICANE SEASON IS ABOUT TO BEGIN, ( IMO)BUCKLE UP
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GFS and Euro show nothing
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I have been reading the GFS shows the MJO doesnt get favorable in the atlantic thru its whole run. Easterly waves arent doing anything but who knows how many weak storms the westerly waves coming off virginia will produce. not until the flood pattern ends will the season get active but by then it may be very late. Still think sept20-oct 10 might have a few real storms. This just shows how meaningless SST's are.
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That already occurred the last week of July and first week of August. We had a two week stretch that had two hurricane landfalls. Were conditions perfect for a major? No, but Hanna would have been a major given 6 to 12 more hours over the western GOM. It was a very well-developed hurricane intensifying right up to landfall with a symmetrical eyewall. Would that being a major hurricane at landfall really change the conversation about this quieter stretch? Not really in my opinion. We'd still have some struggling systems until conditions flip to more favorable in the coming weeks. Again, it's August 13th. I see that alot about "if it just had a few more hours over water". Maybe conditions were so bad over the water that it takes the shape of the coast for a little intensification just before landfall and if it had stayed over water longer it would still be a cat 1.
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Just looking at that you would think we have an el nino. Moisture, low pressure and no windshear in the east pac, dry air, shear, and above normal pressure in the MDR.. Thats also a perfect set up for more huge SAL outbreaks. Sal is going to be going strong with that set up. High pressures much too far south. Going out further it says the first half of the CV season is dead. Perhaps when the flood pattern ends we may have a mini-burst from sept 20-oct 10 if the conditions ever become favorable.
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GFS EURO still show nothing. Joe Bastardi says we may get laura right behind kyle. another very weak low. Just when are the super favorable conditions going to arrive? CV season doesnt last but so long.
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It didnt age fast enough!!
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The 10 named storms have averaged about 2.3 ace per storm. This is not 2005. Joesephine is going to fall apart over very warm water. 12z GFS says the lid isnt coming off.
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GFS out to aug 29th shows nothing. Its going to be one heck of a sept, or not. And while i believe they upgraded td 11 its just going to collapse of respiratory failure.
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I was wrong about CSU. They changed to 24/12/5 so 15/10/5 for the rest of the season. And while in a normal season it wouldnt necessarily be busy now they are predicting a hyper active season and everything shouldnt be struggling. All i am saying is 10 more hurricanes and 5 majors better be happening soon.
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Im looking out to aug 21 and the gfs and euro show nothing. GFS does have some kind of weak low right in the middle of the atlantic but all that will do is kill off MDR development. Just shows above normal SST's dont mean much. I think CSU is already regretting 24/10/5 especially the cane numbers.
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Lots of dry air and shear. TD11 is another struggler. Everything shouldnt be struggling if preseason forecasts of favorable conditions were right. 5/2/1 rest of the season though the way they name things these days 11/2/1 is possible. 20/4/1 for the season?
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Looking less and less of a threat to anyone. Just more rain.
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Sounds like you are ready
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hopefully it stays offshore so you wont get flooded
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It will have to get a heck ova lot better for those gusts to happen.
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2020 Hurricane Season
ldub23 replied to CLIMATE PREDICT's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Lots of great info. I personally think its going to be a rather slow season regardless of all the weak storms so far. Some used 2005 as an analog but this season has been far weaker. -
With my sports posts im expecting to make about the wonderful redskins draft this is it for me tonight. Back to my point about cigarettes. We all know most of these people wouldnt even be dying of corona unless they had another morbidity factor caused by cigarettes so when your neighborhood stalinist tells you every life is precious ask them why they dont seem to care about thier own policy of selling tobacco that is cuasing most of the corona deaths.
