ldub23

The actual tropics are never favorable anymore whether its el nino, la nina or lo neutro

More signs

Thats why its just a SIGN of life. Like the last few years nothing will be easy to develop.

Related to my deleted post the euro shows some signs of life. The gfs at the end of its run shows a large high building in the Northeast that will change the pattern and allow the season to start IF the change actually happens and IF anything is around to develop.

At least the euro is showing some signs of life

If we could ever have a reasonably favorable MDR the lower right would be very interesting

GFS has a TS and cane after that, maybe it will get more active Less active. Looking at another 0/0 aug. In close development not possible with a mega trof.

JB agrees The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 35m First wave and threat to the US looks to be about 10 days off. at 500 mb pattern the period Aug 20-30 looks to be very close to analogs of major hits from 2003-2022. Painstakingly went over every map to come up for analog Euro has enhanced eastern threat day 11-18

The Ukmet forcast issued today. Since there are no modeled hurricanes up to aug 17 i suppose sept is going to be one hellova month. TWC 10/5 CSU 9/4 UKMET9/6 215 ace? I think 65 will be closer to reality. JB is continuing to backtrack while others go wild with super active forecasts. Issued 01 August 2023 All values given below represent observed activity for the 6-month period from February to July 2023 plus the 6-month GloSea6 forecast activity from August 2023 to January 2024. Note, the official tropical storm season, which usually includes most activity, is from June-November. The most likely number of named tropical storms (winds of at least 39 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is 19, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 14 to 24. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 14. The most likely number of hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is 9, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 6 to 12. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 7. The most likely number of major hurricanes (winds of at least 111 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is 6, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 3 to 9. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 3.  An ACE index of 215 is predicted as the most likely value, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 120 to 310. The 1991-2020 average is 123.

This is why the ATL tropics will have a really hard time getting started. Once again we have a low of non tropical origin from a front off the east coast move east across the atlantic. It will kill any chance of the season geting started as anything to its south in the MDR has no chance. Looks like the lights have gone out on the NW ATL. JB backtracking as things are deader than dead. SST's are the least important factor. The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi Until the WPAC calms down, the Atlantic is not likely to rev up. Slow moving major typhoon weakens in a few days as it turns away from China but may still be on the charts 10 days from now 6:14 PM · Jul 31, 2023 · 2,220 Views

Frontal low. Why waste a name for a low on a front? Looks like JB nailed it again. The west atl is lighting up. It forms from a non tropical low east of bermuda.

High pressure in the Candian maritimes would be what we need to get anything past 70w or for inclose development.

Wasnt 1997 deader than dead? But to be optimistic JB is saying it again. WATCH OUT mid-atlantic

Except for 2 weak lows GFS is dead thru the middle of AUG. Is the season ever going to get started?

Looks interesting

You are right about the area near FLA. A little more time and it might do something. After the front passes Sunday it will be interesting to see if the pattern has changed to a 1954 like pattern.

The pattern will have to change to a locked in high over the NW ATL to see development of interest in the SW ATL. JB must have seen the weeklies as he is saying the east coast will face threats in mid to late Aug. Luckily the GFS is much weaker this AM with the recurver.

What is your wildest swing in weather? Feb 1989 comes to mind in SE VA. 80 degrees on the 15th, 13.6 inches of snow on the 18th, 76 degrees on the 21st and 8.6 inches of snow on the 24th Sum 1462 981 - - 601 9 5.80 24.4 - Average 52.2 35.0 43.6 -0.6 - - - - 1.2 Normal 53.4 35.1 44.2 - 582 1 2.90 1.5 - 1989-02-01 72 46 59.0 16.7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-02 80 52 66.0 23.6 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-03 81 41 61.0 18.5 4 0 0.11 0.0 0 1989-02-04 41 33 37.0 -5.6 28 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-05 38 34 36.0 -6.7 29 0 0.64 0.0 0 1989-02-06 45 37 41.0 -1.8 24 0 0.18 0.0 0 1989-02-07 45 35 40.0 -3.0 25 0 0.12 0.0 0 1989-02-08 43 36 39.5 -3.6 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-09 37 20 28.5 -14.7 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-10 40 19 29.5 -13.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-11 53 26 39.5 -4.0 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-12 55 30 42.5 -1.2 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-13 57 34 45.5 1.6 19 0 0.02 0.0 0 1989-02-14 77 56 66.5 22.5 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-15 80 62 71.0 26.8 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 1989-02-16 67 41 54.0 9.6 11 0 T 0.0 0 1989-02-17 43 30 36.5 -8.1 28 0 0.15 1.2 0 1989-02-18 35 29 32.0 -12.7 33 0 1.33 13.6 7 1989-02-19 38 26 32.0 -12.9 33 0 0.18 0.6 9 1989-02-20 50 24 37.0 -8.1 28 0 0.04 0.0 4 1989-02-21 76 44 60.0 14.7 5 0 0.49 0.0 0 1989-02-22 60 43 51.5 6.0 13 0 0.21 0.0 0 1989-02-23 43 36 39.5 -6.2 25 0 0.16 0.4 0 1989-02-24 36 26 31.0 -14.9 34 0 1.03 8.6 3 1989-02-25 36 21 28.5 -17.6 36 0 0.00 0.0 7 1989-02-26 50 29 39.5 -6.8 25 0 0.00 0.0 3 1989-02-27 44 36 40.0 -6.5 25 0 0.41 T 0 1989-02-28 40 35 37.5 -9.2 27 0 0.71 0.0 0 Observations for each day cover the 24 hours ending at the time given below (Local Standard Time). Max Temperature : midnight Min Temperature : midnight Precipitation : midnight Snowfall : unknown Snow Depth : unknown

My forecast method is a simple one. Since it is now forecast to recurve east of bermuda and amount to nothing development is a lock.

81% certain the east atl dist will develop into a cane

Probably wont see a month like that again soon with an avg low of 17 degrees here Sum 1170 527 - - 1160 0 3.29 12.1 - Average 37.7 17.0 27.4 -12.4 - - - - 0.4 Normal 49.1 30.6 39.8 - 780 0 3.77 1.7 - 1977-01-01 34 15 24.5 -16.1 40 0 0.00 0.0 0 1977-01-02 37 15 26.0 -14.5 39 0 0.00 0.0 0 1977-01-03 35 19 27.0 -13.4 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 1977-01-04 40 28 34.0 -6.3 31 0 0.01 0.0 0 1977-01-05 38 24 31.0 -9.2 34 0 0.18 2.8 3 1977-01-06 36 17 26.5 -13.6 38 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-07 40 28 34.0 -6.0 31 0 0.57 5.8 2 1977-01-08 45 14 29.5 -10.5 35 0 0.00 0.0 2 1977-01-09 39 17 28.0 -11.9 37 0 T 0.0 T 1977-01-10 48 19 33.5 -6.3 31 0 1.24 0.5 T 1977-01-11 38 17 27.5 -12.3 37 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-12 36 10 23.0 -16.7 42 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-13 31 12 21.5 -18.2 43 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-14 33 20 26.5 -13.1 38 0 0.46 0.0 T 1977-01-15 39 30 34.5 -5.1 30 0 0.49 0.0 T 1977-01-16 32 25 28.5 -11.1 36 0 0.11 1.5 2 1977-01-17 26 0 13.0 -26.6 52 0 0.00 0.0 1 1977-01-18 26 6 16.0 -23.5 49 0 0.00 0.0 1 1977-01-19 31 1 16.0 -23.5 49 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-20 37 11 24.0 -15.5 41 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-21 35 12 23.5 -16.1 41 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-22 32 14 23.0 -16.6 42 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-23 34 10 22.0 -17.6 43 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-24 38 20 29.0 -10.6 36 0 0.16 1.5 2 1977-01-25 40 24 32.0 -7.7 33 0 0.07 0.0 T 1977-01-26 41 20 30.5 -9.2 34 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-27 49 31 40.0 0.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-28 55 30 42.5 2.7 22 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-29 55 11 33.0 -6.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-30 35 6 20.5 -19.5 44 0 0.00 0.0 T 1977-01-31 35 21 28.0 -12.0 37 0 0.00 0.0 T Reliable observation times are not available prior to 1982.

JB says it again, brings up 1954 and we all know how that year was for the east coast. In other tweets he remains confident of east coast threats. Im pretty sure he meant to type 3 or more days of 90+

The pattern does appear to be changing. Hopefully it lasts thru OCT.

If it does develop it will correspond to a brief change in the pattern with the rain stopping for a few days.