ldub23

I will watch

Onto OCT. Delayed but not denied!!! The lid will come off. The switch will flip. We are still above normal ace!!

The American Storm on X: "Euro weeklies suggest a September to remember in the tropics https://t.co/PUnfUuDtL8" / X

You were wise. GFS says the first low is 0/0 now but it does develop another one that will recurve 400 miles east of Bermuda. I still think the ATL will produce several biggies in oct/nov but 300-400 miles east of bermuda is where they will likely go.

LOL, nice try. We had a Category 5 hurricane in the MDR last year. We've already had a Category 5 hurricane that developed out of the MDR this year. *eyeroll* And since we have had 2 cloudless waves that couldnt do anything in the MDR. The MDR has done nothing since Beryl. In 2023 it was a 1 storm MDR season like this year. All the others were very weak storms that dissipated over water. Franklin couldnt get going till far north of the MDR. No one thinks last year was an active MDR season

Oct/Nov will be big this year with several strong storms forming in the central Atlantic ocean but its doubtful they will get as far west as 300 miles east of Bermuda. 2025 cant be worse than this season unless the muti-year pattern of a dead MDR continues.

06 GFS agrees with your forecast.

Well done

Lets see it

I think they already do

I dont think we will have to worry about running out of names this season but sept/oct should be normally active.

For the seasonal forecasters it has been the worst season. Big sept/oct coming though

Sort of surprising CSU didnt drop their numbers in half

Past Labor Day. Probably less than the intrepid tropics follower would expect to see on an ensemble in a season that was supposed to be average, not to mention a 25/12/6 season

Perhaps. Euro shows very little out to 4 weeks but it does show the shift to a winterlike pattern. CSU and others forecasts of a big US landfall season seem unlikely.

We are in peak season during a season that was supposed to be super duper and the hurricane season from Hell and the models cant even come up with a fantasy cane. Has to be too much dry air. I doubt the season will be rip roaring in Oct.

I think it can still hit New England. Just will need a few adjustments. Also the first of many east coast threats.

8.479 out of 10

GFS says rare NE hit

GFS shows 1 storm then nothing else thru AUG25. Thats 2 in AUG.

Late August: Favorable conditions will shift eastward, maintaining high activity across the Atlantic. Maintain high activity? I would be happy if the ATL could maintain any activity. 2 things stand out here for me. Its a perfect set up for a continued conveyor belt of dust into the ATL. Also, we have now shifted back to the pattern of the last 3 years with a trof in the central ATL and low pressure anchored in the NW Atlantic. While CSU says we have above normal odds of canes and majors hitting the US the rest of the season this pattern says the NW Carib isnt going to be favorable, the coast is protected, and landfalls will be sparse unless the pattern reverses. For some reason you have to click twice on the itty bitty picture

If the GFS is right and there is nothing to AUG22, which means it will be at least another week for a storm to develop CSU must really really think sept*Oct will be super charged. Coming down to 14/7/3 would make more sense. 10/5/2 the rest of the way

2004/05/1933 its not going to be.