burgertime

That storm on the GFS looked a bit uh...cracked out to me. ULL driving across the apps then cranking a bit off the coast with the secondary low. On the SFC you end up with 3 lows all around each other. That Tuesday storm looks more appealing to me. But this has been a crazy winter for ya'll so anything is on the table I guess.

I said it over in the sanatorium that I felt like someone along I-85 or wherever that band setups will get 4-8. It's a bit of an absurd call but this feels like one of those rare setups where someone really gets hammered. I always take the HRRR with a grain of salt but that band just east of CLT can setup east or west further than shown and it's gonna be a blitz on whoever is under it.

HRRR was showing what looked like possible thunder snow on the composite radar. Someone is going to get some super heavy returns and if this phases a little faster someone could get more.

18z has a nice little 4 inch maxima around CLT.

It SHOULD create a better situation as it can better phase with the southern energy earlier...but that probably has more implications for the NE and MA. If it phases sooner that should help enhance that mesoscale low.

GFS also further east with the northern energy. That'll make a difference for everyone downstream if it keeps that pace of being slower than the models see.

I believe we had an event either 2011 or 2014. We had cold air in place and an overrunning event. Flakes were tiny and it was a super dry powder. Ended up with around 3 inches and a high of like 22 IRRC. By the way for everyone reading, by all means get excited. Just temper it with the fact that IF it's that cold of an artic air mass you just gotta get lucky on the front end or wait for it to start to break down.

Time will tell just seen more often than not cold air masses like that give us the big squash. Had euro been folding more to the GFS? Euro is way better here in Europe vs GFS with overall climo.

Problem is GFS is also showing some major arctic air. If that's the case then it's gonna be awhile. I mean first step is always cold air but if it's that cold id be a bit skeptical of getting a huge storm right after it passes. Like @burrel2 said you need a stalled boundary and a storm to ride along it.

Yep if you're around Spartenburg, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord and Monroe be on the look out!

Euro is more believable. Big rain storm in front of the massive arctic air dump then suppresses everything. That is a seriously cold air mass going over Canada and the Midwest. Wowzers.

If you get under a heavy band it likely will happen. These convective snows can really put out.

Seems like a good call here. Though I do think this low could go rouge and still help you guys out in RDU. Gonna use my "healing skies" gut for that.

I'm gonna make an absurd call and say this weekend's system over performs from I-85 to RDU with localized 4-8 wherever the heaviest bands setup.

Gotta love how models are throwing the deep freeze across the south but that's also gonna put energy into the meat grinder if that happens. Need to catch the front edge or the tail end or it's gonna be another wishing on the perfect phase.