mjwise

Wind really roared here for about 10-15 minutes. 51MPH gust at recorded at DKB. Power has flickered several times. 53 degrees out. Pretty unreal for June 17, feels more like April 17. ETA: Winds still going, 49MPH gust recorded as well.

Our temperature has actually dipped about 5 degrees from 12:30-4:30 PM here today. Falling afternoon temps are hard to achieve without precipitation this time of the year.

According to this database (still seemingly updated), it would be record-breaking or nearly so for June once it gets into the lower GL region. Per the map below, record low pressure in June from Chicagoland into the central portion of the lower peninsula of michigan is ~992-993mb https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

Nice baroclinic support so far into June with the GEFS, EPS, and AIFS ensemble means all showing a 992-995mb low traversing southern Lake Michigan late Wednesday. Looks like most likely a cool rain for MBY.

No signs of any real summertime heat in the ensembles at least through the solstice for the GLOV.

Outside this forum, but Raleigh, NC is having a terrible year. They just set their (drought-assisted) 14th record high of the year down there, and their record period goes back to 1887. Ugh.

This was an NBM issue. The ensemble runs (both EPS and GEFS were doing it) as of Wed-Thurs last week were forecasting the development of a stout 588-591 dam ridge centered over eastern IA and western IL between Tuesday and Saturday of this week but then there were big changes across the ensembles by Saturday to a much more progressive pattern. The NBM apparently doesn't like big changes developing in the ensembles between days 5-8 and tried to "correct" what it saw as an error on its own. The extended forecast grids for our area were a mess for a couple of days because I don't think the local offices are supposed to alter the extended forecasts anymore from what NBM generates.

Subsevere rocking and rolling IMBY at least. Plenty of lightning and thunder though.

First 90 of the year for Chicago today.

Model sounding here for 18z is nearly 5000 SBCAPE with minimal to no capping, 87/76 T/Td, and PWAT of 2 inches. Charged! Already felt quite juicy out tonight.

Enhanced for severe wind also expanded into Chicagoland on the new D2.

Looks like it's real. Another report out of the same area at 111 MPH with debarked trees.

I never start threads but I thought there should be one for this with a Day 3 enhanced and Day 4 30% severe delineation already posted. Smarter people can discuss.

That ridge is fading fast in the models. LOT still had us well into the 90s for Thurs and Fri next week on this morning's forecast package but I think they're going to have to pull back on that. ETA: LOT noted in the morning discussion the point and click and zone forecasts are married to the NBM and that appears to be having some issues.

Up to about 6.8" for the month and over 11" across Mar-Apr to date. We had just 0.01" in Feb so quite an upgrade. Most of WI-IL border region is well over 10" month to date.