mjwise

Up to about 6.8" for the month and over 11" across Mar-Apr to date. We had just 0.01" in Feb so quite an upgrade. Most of WI-IL border region is well over 10" month to date.

Here we got them for such a long period because DeKalb was right on the border of two different polygons separated by some time and the mixed E and NE motion of the squall line made them challenging to draw.

We got tornado sirens for about an hour here because of the orientation and timing of the warnings. No real wind here but great summer like squall line light show even into the cold pool.

A minute of slightly larger than pea-sized pingers in DeKalb at the tail end of the line.

88/80/105 in DeKalb. Full corn transpiration mode activated. Just disgusting.

I think that was the best storm we've had all year in Dekalb. Just a nice, seasonably strong afternoon storm that we didn't see at all in April or May.

5 convective complexes between Sat afternoon and Monday evening here. 3 garden variety and 2 severe. Over 10" of rain since astronomical summer began. Some totals over 13" up towards Rockford in that time period. Great run for us here. Of course half my garden has paid the price for it but at least it was top shelf convection? I'd be hard-pressed to come up with a more impressive ~30 day summer stretch I've experienced pretty much anywhere.

Looks like the biggest wind occurred in a Kewanee to Camp Grove line. There was a measured 105 MPH gust in that area and reports of at least one blowdown of a corn field. Glad we didn't get that up this way.

19Z special sounding at DVN, Powder keg ready to blow.

Upgrade to moderate flash flooding risk this evening for Rockford and Chicago. It will all depend on how progressive this evening's line is and if we see a significant WAA wing and/or training occurring on the back end.

Enough tree limbs down here to crush about half of my garden. It just has not been a good garden year.

Really good light show in the small leading WAA wing. ETA: Big boy wind with this line. No wind report at KDKB on the 9:15 observation. The ASOS is damaged per the METAR report.

The HRRR is insistent on convection erupting and a linear looking MCS congealing very quickly around 7-8PM in the IA/IL/WI tri-state region and then bowing southeast across S WI, N IL into NW IN in the late evening/early overnight hours. The HRDPS supports that as does the 3km NAM. The globals sort of show that for today but have better support for a similar looking setup tomorrow night. We may pull off the rare "MCS wave" getting three consecutive nights of evening or nocturnal boomers here if it all comes together. ETA: Upgrade to Enhanced on Day 2 for E IA/N IL/N IN.

The first three weeks of June were lousy here - too warm, too dry and led up to the hot but not unbearable week of 90s but then the switch got flipped and we got a few big boy LLJ firehose events and we greened back up nicely. The ensembles also have not been able to resolve the CONUS pattern very well even in a general sense beyond day 8-9 or so. There's been too much depiction of some vague full latitude ridge that would be suggestive of a plains death ridge type setup that then vanishes in the mid range. It could still happen of course but the ensemble models performance doesn't seem great this year.

The GEFS and EPS are really struggling lately in the 8-14 day timeframe.