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SnowDawg

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About SnowDawg

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  • Location:
    Clayton, GA

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  1. It is way off on dew points though just like it was with the snow event 2 weeks ago. For me it showed a 3 pm dew point of 32, actual is 23.
  2. This for sure! Remember this is what all the models, I mean every single one, missed on for our snow event. They all underestimated the dry air at the surface by a significant margin leading to a stronger in-situ wedge and a busted forecast for most of them.
  3. Oh what I wouldn't do for a southern slider in that setup...
  4. Georgia and South Carolina deciding to just be Florida North from now on I guess lol
  5. Is it not strange that this low takes off almost due N/NE into this huge HP? Also the 50/50 was a lot weaker compared to 00z run leading to less confluence.
  6. Of course it is, it's a smoothed mean at nearly 180 hours out. Key is the CAD signal is there. This is the ptype panel....
  7. HRRR for the first time in the last two winters for me proved it wasn't absolutely useless for winter events. Even more surprising for me was the long lead times it did so at, with little to no wavering on its idea. It kicked the NAMs butt yesterday after what had been, at least for my back yard at least, 2 years of dominance from the NAM over the HRRR. Seems to me it clearly had a better handle on the dry air at the surface strengthening the wedge to hold off the warm nose longer and on the intense band with the 700mbar frontogenesis, which I noted on Friday night the NAM was consistently weakening for some unknown reason.
  8. Warm nose and mixing line showing up well on cc. Hopefully it takes its time.
  9. Yeah it is dumping here now. Accumulating quickly and temp is crashing. Now it's just a matter of how long it takes the warm nose to get here.
  10. Yeah I've been watching it snow heavily on the mountains just to my N/NW for a while now but just can't stay under the good rates long enough here to keep it reaching the ground I guess. Shouldn't be long though, steadily saturating now.
  11. Tiger, just south of Clayton right at 2000 feet. Grounds white well to my south and the north but we're struggling to moisten up the boundary.
  12. Wow that's awesome. I must've been stuck between the best rates so far. North end of the county is turning white and your getting some stick age down there now, but I've just had a few intermittent flizzards and it's only down to 39.7.
  13. Not good boys...Even the NAM is underestimating the strength of the warm nose apparently. special 18z sounding from KFFC shows a stronger warm nose than what any of the models depict, but the NAM is closest. How far this warm nose works north and west, into the area where temps are closest to or below freezing, will determine the extent of the wintry precip. They dropped my totals for the 3rd time today and only give me a single hour of all snow and transition to all rain by 11....
  14. I think they may expand the advisories with the main afternoon update in the next hour or so.
  15. Quite literally what it did to me back January. It even got GSP to jump on big increase in totals right at game time. That bust hurt bad lol
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