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Everything posted by LovingGulfLows

  1. This is probably the hurricane most likely to be upgraded post analysis if they don't do it here in the next 20 minutes or so.
  2. It's so bizarre to me how storms this year can't go beyond that 150-155 mph hump....
  3. Was Goni ever actually measured by an aircraft or was it just an estimate also? That storm could've also been over rated by satellite measurements.
  4. I was kind of thinking the same thing. Did this expose Dvorak?
  5. I was looking at Maria and Irma IR/SAT pictures at their peaks and this core looks better than Maria's, but not quite Irma's at it's peak yet. I'll go with 175 MPH/925mb.
  6. They went with 120 MPH...no way with that presentation, the winds aren't higher.
  7. We're never going to hear the end of it from the ghost of leroy.
  8. Interesting. Both hurricane models, HMON and HWRF both around 960 at landfall.
  9. Perhaps, but one has to remember this wasn't forecasted to become a hurricane until late afternoon and it already is one. On top of that, modeling forecasted shear would impact it for much of the morning and afternoon hours.
  10. Worst case scenario for Galveston and the eastern Houston metro area...that would drive water right up the Galveston Bay into the Houston suburbs. Think it will probably verify more east though.
  11. Ever since 2017, they overhype every little tropical cyclone.
  12. It's literally looks almost like the 2000 analogy you were saying earlier. East and Southeast sides gets lollipopped....west parts of the metro get shafted. Still, it's the NAM.
  13. We had one last year in Mid January. Dropped 1-2 inches in the metro...it really exploded over NC though.
  14. Interesting that you're usually pessimistic about ATL's chances, but it feels different for this system as if you see a chance for us.
  15. Funny how I posted this three weeks ago and look what happened....
  16. There doesn't seem to be enough instability for thundersnow....I'd imagine when the Upper level energy tracks closer to the Carolinas, there would be more thundersnow reports.
  17. Don't think anyone in Atlanta expected anything substantial from this storm. It's just fun to follow winter storms in the SE.
  18. This system is pretty far suppressed so far. I think folks in VA might get whiffed outside of the southern portion and even they might not get much.
  19. If Atlanta can get an early December snowstorm that drops 5+ inches, then Charlotte certainly can with the right pattern.
  20. Looking at the radar right now, I gotta feeling this will overperform. That must be very heavy snow out west there. Good luck to NC folks and hope you get a chance at some Thundersnow(Experienced this during the March 09 ULL and it was AMAZING).
  21. Hope so. That was the last time I've experienced Thundersnow. That being said, the ULL seems to open up on most of the models as it heads southeastward.
  22. Yeah I was wondering what they were talking about. Usually cut off lows are multi-contoured and they're not apart of any trough in the jet stream. This is simply just a low closing and allowing the winds to circulate completely around the area of lowest pressure at the 500mb height. This is what a cutoff low looks like:
  23. Wow. I've never seen a 55-60 DBZ snowband. Hope you guys are having fun :).