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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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2 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

Yeah, but no other real support

True, but it is interesting. Didn't the NAM verify the best for the last nights/today's band of snow/sleet/freezing rain? And didn't it nail the warm nose? Don't know for sure, but I think it did better than any other model. 

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

Although if that is nudged westward and I end up with the first week of December giving me 20”, I won’t complain ever again.

HRRR has it more west....

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1 minute ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

True, but it is interesting. Didn't the NAM verify the best for the last nights/today's band of snow/sleet/freezing rain? Not sure, just asking. 

Was to far north imo

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1 minute ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

True, but it is interesting. Didn't the NAM verify the best for the last nights/today's band of snow/sleet/freezing rain? Not sure, just asking. 

There were some people on the edges of the transition zones in which the NAM seemed to give the most accurate forecast but as a whole it was pretty bad for this event compared to the other guidance.

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Just now, Dunkman said:

There were some people on the edges of the transition zones in which the NAM seemed to give the most accurate forecast but as a whole it was pretty bad for this event compared to the other guidance.

Okay thanks for clarifying. Wasn't sure. 

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It's not really the location that I'm suspicious about. I'm sure it'll be off one way or another there, but NAM is spitting out like 1.5 inches of QPF over spots. No way....

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SREF Plumes have 3.63 as a mean in Raleigh tomorrow.

1 minute ago, RTPGiants said:

3K looks much more reasonable

You’re living dangerously if you use 3k NAM QPF IMO. 

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If there was ever a year an ULL could swing through and squeeze out an impressive QPF field, well, Wilmington is almost at 100” on the year. 

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At 5:30 p.m., the National Weather Service said the preliminary total at Richmond International Airport was at 9 inches.

Even with the final total from RIC outstanding, that still made it the biggest snowstorm so early in the season.

In Richmond weather records dating to 1897, the heaviest snow total that occurred earlier than Dec. 10 was 7.3 inches on Nov. 6-7, 1953.

The record December snowstorm for Richmond was 17.2 inches on Dec. 22-23, 1908, according to the National Weather Service in Wakefield.

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18 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

True, but it is interesting. Didn't the NAM verify the best for the last nights/today's band of snow/sleet/freezing rain? And didn't it nail the warm nose? Don't know for sure, but I think it did better than any other model. 

HRRR did better with placement of transition zone and timing for my area.

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Remember Jan 17/18 event this year? I was laughing at NAM and RAP consistently dumping 10" over OBX...and then OBX got crushed. I wouldn't be so quick to disregard the NAM in this instance, although that event had more cold air to work with

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