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GreensboroWx

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Everything posted by GreensboroWx

  1. GreensboroWx
    Yes, x 1000. We actually have the cold or will next week. I think the southern stream will start to crank again in early Feb. I still believe we will still see a significant storm or two in the SE before all is said and done.
  2. GreensboroWx
    All of the indices are for 8-10 days AT A MINIMUM, not for this weekend or even next week. I think a month from now, most people will be singing a different tune!
  3. GreensboroWx
    Few ice pellets and light rain right now...temp 32.4 with dew point in the 20s....9mi NW of GSO. I'm REALLY worried about quite a bit of ice accrual by tomorrow afternoon.
  4. GreensboroWx
    Yeah, road are horrible. Took my Subaru Forester out for a couple of drives and most roads were barely passable. It's going to be bad for a couple of days, to say the least. Kids probably won't go to school all week, if I were to guess.
  5. GreensboroWx
    Often, upper lows, which are cold aloft in nature, over perform and are not well handled by the models. See Lubbock, Tx..... I wouldn't discount the NAM 3K.
  6. GreensboroWx
    13" in Summerfield, NC, roughly 9mi NW of KGSO. Light freezing drizzle at the moment.
  7. GreensboroWx
    Unfortunately, I DO think there is going to be some major icing, later Sunday after the brunt of the snow is over....I'm thinking in a line from CLT to RDU for the most icing.
  8. GreensboroWx
    Yeah, the HRRR has been consistent showing strong CAD temps. Impressive, if correct, which I have not reason to doubt
  9. GreensboroWx
    I know the storm is just arriving here in NC, but I've been impressed by the global models picking up on this event 7+ days. I'm not sure I've ever seen this. I'm trying to figure out why this storm is so well progged but others not so much. I'm thinking it may have to do to the strength of the waves, but that's just a guess. I'm thinking the locations right along the snow/sleet border is going to hit the jackpot of 16+" total which is insane for this area. Just think, we are only in early Dec and the way it's looking, Jan/Feb are going to be cold with plenty of blocking. I'm really thinking this is going to be a blockbuster winter for much of our region, esp the northern mountains of NC....wax those skis!
  10. GreensboroWx
    Based on what I have seen with the overnight runs, I think it might be a bit conservative.
  11. GreensboroWx
    Yes, great observation. 84 hrs only takes us to Sunday afternoon and this storm is going to persist through Monday morning, at least.
  12. GreensboroWx
    Geez, check out the time on the map!! The NAM is slower and the bulk of the moisture is just really getting into the N parts of NC. What I'm saying is this is just the totals for the very beginning of the storm. Be patient! Yes, it's warmer aloft but we'll have to see what other model runs tell us.
  13. GreensboroWx
    Yes, 850 low tracks from northern MS through AL, GA and off of ILM....pretty ideal for NC piedmont
  14. GreensboroWx
    Nice 1040 high on NAM is good for PLENTY of cold air.
  15. GreensboroWx
    Maybe a touch less QPF but I'm only seeing the maps through Monday at 12z....still have the upper low to go by on Monday
  16. GreensboroWx
    Yes, I saw a few flurries on my way in to work.
  17. GreensboroWx
    As you well know, the NWS is going to be very conservative. Read their AFD...that's actually about as aggressive as you'll see several hours out. Anyway, why even look at their point forecast, you'll always be disappointed. All indicators point to a significant winter weather event for the Triad.
  18. GreensboroWx
    I assume you said this in jest.....it's still 9 days away so it's anyone's guess at this point. All the models have been hinting at something during this time. Once we're inside a week, maybe then we can start to analyze the situation a little closer.
  19. GreensboroWx
    Everybody is arguing over wind speed which is silly. It's a BIG and POWERFUL storm and appears to be reorganizing a bit. The main threat is flooding/storm surge due to the extremely slow speed of the storm. Any winds over TS strength will be bad due to the soft moist soil. This is not going to be good and is going to be catastrophic in many ways.
  20. GreensboroWx
    And you are basing this on what?? The eye is just covered by overcast and I believe it's reorganizing. I'm not saying it's to going to jump to a cat 5 or even a 4 but it still has to traverse across the gulf stream and many models show it holding its own or even strengthen a bit.
  21. GreensboroWx
    One has to remember this is a BIG hurricane and whether or not it's a 2 or 3 or whatever, the flooding potential is going to be unreal. Thrown in hurricane force winds and you have a disaster. I certainly hope the stall scenario doesn't play out but it's looking more and more likely Florence is going to slow down significantly either and creep through NC/SC or just offshore. Either way, it's just not a good thing for millions of people in its path or in its radius, which include me.
  22. GreensboroWx
    The Euro run is a worse case scenario for the SE coast of NC down through SC....the duration of the winds/rains would be catastrophic.
  23. GreensboroWx
    I'm far from a "long range" forecaster but I enjoy looking at various indices and climate model solutions. I will say the CanSIPS and the CFS Weekly/Monthly runs from last night show a favorable turn to cold mid Feb and beyond. I also read there is a SSW event taking place or getting ready to. (I'll see it to believe it) The indices referenced above also are trending in this direction. I still think a portion of the SE is in store for a winter storm or two before all is said and done. I also think it is USELESS to even analyze ANY global model's solution beyond 168 hrs (1 week)...this goes for warm or cold solutions.
  24. GreensboroWx
    Looks like we are going to have a lull in winter weather through the end of the month. I'm not saying we'll have a torch, but above normal temps are likely. This will be a 10-15 day reprieve from the crazy cold we have had. I DO think we'll get back to below normal after the 1st week in Feb through the end of next month. I'm fairly confident we'll have more winter storms to watch during that period, as well. This winter is FAR from over for the southeast....
  25. GreensboroWx
    Latest HRR snowfall totals:
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